Photo Credits – NBL1
5-Minute Read
The Game
When: 8:00pm (ACST), Saturday August 8
Where: Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Broadcast: Kayo Freebies, http://www.nbl1.com.au
Did you know?
This will be the eighteenth meeting between these two over the modern era – they have met more times in the men’s than any other teams in the NBL1 era
The Last Meetings
Round 2 (SBC) – FORESTVILLE EAGLES 97 (MAYS 29, DOYLE, D JOHNSON 22, STARLING 14) defeated SOUTH ADELAIDE PANTHERS 79 (BRUTON 23, McVEIGH, MOIR 15, JE SMITH 11, SAKHNIUK 9)
Round 10 (MP) – OVERTIME – SOUTH ADELAIDE PANTHERS 86 (MCVEIGH 29, JE SMITH 16, BRUTON 15, J SMITH, D SMITH 8) defeated FORESTVILLE EAGLES 84 (MAYS 22, JOHNSON 21, FORBES 18, STARLING 9)
QUALIFYING SEMI-FINAL (SBC) – FORESTVILLE EAGLES 77 (MAYS 23, FORBES 15, DOYLE 13, D JOHNSON 12, STARLING 10) lost to SOUTH ADELAIDE PANTHERS 83 (McVEIGH 30, D SMITH, JE SMITH 14, BRUTON 12, J SMITH 8)
How they got here
South Adelaide Panthers (3rd – 13-5)
The Panthers looked like they might stumble in the back half of the year with three losses in a row to the Norwood Flames, North Adelaide Rockets and Central Districts Lions over two weekends – they managed to gain some traction however, knocking off the Southern Tigers and the Eastern Mavericks to finish in third. Facing a Qualifying Away Final against the Sturt Sabres who they lost to in Round one – both teams went toe to toe offensively with a 23-26 start to the match. It remained tight all the way through the match with the Panthers just holding a 65-72 lead with one to play. It was a case of the Sabres being surrounded by Smith’s everywhere as the matrix of offence surrounded them – Jeremy, Jonty and Daniel all contributing 20 points between them in the final term to see the Panthers through 89-101 to the Qualifying Semi-Final.
That was against their nemesis the top of the table Forestville Eagles as they clashed for the unperteenth time with the Eagles taking the early lead 24-19. Greg Mays was proving a problem for the Panthers again with sealing a 12 point first half with the dunk on halftime to keep the Eagles in front 46-39. With Panther import big Yevgen Sakhniuk again a pivotal player on court the Eagles put plenty of time into making him challenged. Enter Daniel Smith who produced a strong second half in his minutes and Lloyd McVeigh stepping up another notch to rein the lead back for the Panthers to level it up 61-61 with one to play. Both teams traded blows in shadows of the 2024 meetings but it took McVeigh with a huge last four minutes of seven points with the Eagles missing uncharacteristic shots down the stretch to see the Panthers first through to the decider.
Forestville Eagles (1st – 16-2)
After a strong season including a six game winning streak heading into the finals – the Panthers loss was a wake up call despite 22 offensive rebounds and plenty of extra possessions. Their meeting with the Central Districts Lions was a rematch of the 2025 Qualifying Semi-Final with the script following the opposite that night. This time it was the Eagles flying to the start of 34-16 thanks to Mays who amassed 18 points including offensive tip-ins and plays above the rim. The Lions stunned began the process of levelling things up in the term but trailed at the main break 34-51 with the Eagles in control of the match flow.
Even though the Lions charged the Eagles continued to respond with Jordan Forbes and Daniel Johnson making some key baskets in the term – the work on the glass giving them multiple chances to keep the lead heading into the fourth 79-61. They would have to yield one last charge from the Lions attempting to cap the fairytale three year stint with every miss for the Lions answered by the Eagles eventually seeing them off thanks to Adam Doyle’s clutch free throws 95-84.
Championship History
Four years ago the Panthers broke a 25 year drought to claim their first championship since 1997. In their long history they have made nineteen Grand Finals including a string of seven in a row from 1963-1973. That was the era of the great Michael Ah-Matt, Dean Whitford, Scott Davie and starting centre Bruce Ninnis. They won five of those while the Panthers of the late 80s and 90s made eight winning five of them through stars Mark Davis, Scott Ninnis, Craig Adams, Darren Breeding, Matt Reece and Ron Nunnelly. After Ninnis added a title for the Panthers as its previous coach, now Paul Bell’s time has come to add title number twelve to the cabinet at Mitchell Park.
The Eagles have a rich history of the men’s making and winning the deciding match. They’ve been in 17 Grand Finals winning eight of them – if you include West Torrens it’s nine of 22 since 1958. In 2019, The Eagles won their largest Grand Final victory with a 27-point victory over the Mt Gambier Pioneers, surpassing their usual eight-point winning margin. Adam Doyle has been a huge part of their titles, having been part of the 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2024 one but missed 2019 playing in the NBL1 South.
These teams meet again in the decider for the second time since the years of 1989 and 1990 which included an epic high scoring overtime thriller 111-107 and a tight six point win to the Panthers 94-88. Mark Davis had an enormous night of 30 and 20 plus in points and rebounds as Don Shipway’s group held on in the final five minutes to claim back to back titles. The Panthers also demolished them in the 1987 Grand Final 104-85 and come into this with a grand final record of 3-1. This meeting also is their sixth meeting with the Panthers holding a 4-1 record but the one loss was by the single basket in the 2024 Grand Final.
The Numbers
- The South Adelaide Panthers numbers offensively have been strong this season as #1 for points scored (97), field goal percentage (51.9) and points in the paint (56.2)
- Add to this their defensive numbers as top two for assists conceded (16.8) and rebounding conceded (40)
- The Panthers are + 4.8 points in third terms this season holding their opponents to 20 or less – that has happened in both finals games in 2026 (18 and 15)
- The Forestville Eagles are top in several categories including #1 for assists (23), offensive rebounds (17), rebounds (48.6), steals (10), second chance points (13.1) and fastbreak points (12)
- Add to this they are top two in points in the paint (49.9), points off turnover (10) points conceded (79.9), field goal percentage conceded (41.4), rebounds given up (38.6) and points in the paint conceded (36.1)
- The Eagles have averaged 28 offensive rebounds across this finals series compared to previous year’s run of 18 (2025), 9 (2024) and 13 (2023).
- The chink in the Eagles armour has been their three point shooting percentage this finals series averaging 18 percent across both finals.
- Coach Andy Simons of the Eagles will be gunning for his eighth title as head coach in his 22nd year to add to two pre 2010, the three-peat in 2011-2013 and titles in 2019 and 2024
- Six of these teams meetings have been a single basket but only once in a final has that been in the 2024 Grand Final (90-92)
The Money Men
It’s really hard to go past the Woollacott Medallist in Jeremy Smith and after the 2024 Grand Final he’s clearly hungry to lead this young side to success again four years later. His finals series has been intriguing as points haven’t been his main go to with an average of 21 points he’s also added eight assists and five rebounds. His form coming into the finals was moving towards that next level with an average of 29 points in his last four games. The roadblock this time is not beside him but in front of Alex Starling who has held him to 11, 16 and 14 scoring wise but his last two Grand Finals have yielded 26 in both respectively so beware of goat like tendencies coming to the fore.
The man who sunk them last time again is the man for the moment bringing it above the rim. The criminally underrated Greg Mays will be keen to prove the doubters wrong again after an elite 32 point performance two years ago on the big stage. The mobile forward/centre averages 23.6 points in finals against the Panthers and 23 points in his last nine games against them. He holds the hopes of the Eagles taking out two in three years once again.
The Reliable Men
True to the form line the last few months of Lloyd McVeigh has seen his side move up an echelon. McVeigh has been twice if not three times than when we saw him last season split by his soiree up to the sunny north point of Australia with the Cairns Taipans. An average of 25 points per game in the second half of the season kicked off with a season high 36 points against the Eastern Mavericks has seen him become a genuine star of the competition stepping up to the plate to support Jeremy Smith.
While ageing like a fine wine and coming into vintage form at the right time is Adam Doyle. He is Mr reliable for the Eagles always replicating the same play and form consistently game to game. His offensive production is lifting at the right time averaging 15 points per game in his last six matches including two twenty point hauls still adding quality assists and high level defence. Two years ago he made important free throws and baskets in the decider when his team needed it – he’ll no doubt be called upon again
The X-Factors
The biggest factor for the Panthers is how long and what impact can Yevgen Sakniuk have on the floor? Nine times the big man has not been on the floor for 30 or more minutes and twelve times had four fouls or more. The concern has been alleviated slightly with the performances of the breakout season of Jonty Smith and the late season spark of Daniel Smith. Both have been outstanding in the finals series averaging 10 points as a pair. While like his family before him in big deciding games – is this the moment we see the absolute awakening of Rio Bruton? He’s only averaged 11.5 in the finals but the fact he hasn’t fired yet should worry Eagles fans.
Speaking of ready to rise, are we about to see the game-changing performance from Fiston Ipassou? The numbers don’t tell you the full story but the observation and feeling is that he’s had some big moments and plays that have secured the Eagles many a victory this season go unnoticed. While missing out on all the fun we get to see the “Jellyman” in Jordan Forbes who does have a genuine X-Factor about his game. The challenge for the Panthers is there is no clear matchup for him if you have the others guarding who they have. Add to this that he’s coming off an average of 18 points per game in his last five games and 27 points in the preliminary final. Grand Finals are a great place to forge a reputation and up the price of a player and these two have their opportunity to really show who they are.
So who claims the championship?
While the Batman’s of both teams in Mays, DJ, Doyle and McVeigh, Jeremy Smith and Sakniuk will have their moments – the supporting acts of Robin’s will be a huge influence. Last time it was Uche Dibiamaka that came along for the ride and the Eagles have been trying to fill that hole ever since with limited success. Forbes is that man that’s the game breaker because his matchup he clearly will have the advantage in. The Panthers bench is their foil and the impact they have whether it be one or twenty minutes will be telling.
The other statistical thing to note is those offensive rebounds of the Eagles – no matter how ordinary the teams shoot beyond the arc the Panthers can’t afford to get down by double digit offensive rebounds to the Eagles again as that is trifling with the precipice a tad too far.
When these two play it’s a fight for the full forty minutes guaranteed but there is one difference that has been the case between the teams and that is the Smith versus Starling matchup. We haven’t seen it in the decider yet and I’m intrigued to see how this particular personnel change affects the whole dynamics of this contest compared to their grand final meeting in 2024.
Then from there who knows but I know this – by Sunday morning we’ll be talking up another classic and equally about a player’s performance we didn’t see coming but invited to show up to enhance their reputation beyond any things we could imagine – we saw that in 2024 why not again…
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