Top Cats?: The Sturt Sabres despite securing a finals position still have plenty to play for including another home qualifying final, potentially their third opening week of the finals home game in consecutive seasons. Picture by Snap Shot Photography
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Also keep this in mind…
4.7 Positions on the Premiership Table Teams are generally classified according to the FIBA Official Rules of Basketball with the following exception.
*If 2 or more teams have the same win-loss record of all games in the group, the game(s) between these 2 or more teams shall be used to decide their final ladder positions. If the 2 or more teams have the same win-loss record of the games between them, further criteria will be applied in the following order: (i) Higher goal difference of the games between them; (ii) Higher number of goals scored in the games between them; (iii) Higher goal difference of all games in the group; (iv) Higher number of goals scored in all games in the group.
Round 18
Saturday 6/08/2022
Norwood Flames vs Sturt Sabres (The ARC – The Firedome)
Women (6:00pm)
LTTM: Sturt Sabres 65 (Williams 18, K Mathews 14) defeated Norwood Flames 57 (Basham, Wilson 19) – Split 8 points to Sabres
It couldn’t happen again could it but in the reverse??? Last year the Flames came from the bottom of the table to win 7 of their last 9 games to narrowly miss the finals; now after being around much of the season they are in danger of falling to the already secure Sabres. Its fair to say the Flames have the toughest matchup of the weekend and is the only team playing against a top five contender. If results go likely the way of the round, the Flames with a win can tie with the Tigers which then falls back to the split which they hold by 24 points while the Sabres will be keen to hold onto second place (Especially considering that’s where they finished in 2021 and went out in straight sets from there) by claiming their 14th win of the season as a slip to 13 only might see them lose their home final to the Panthers given the split (i) is tied between them and the Panthers. The above criteria is then invoked meaning the Sabres have currently a goal difference of 265 points overall compared to the Panthers 174 points; a difference of 91 points!!! Personally love to see the 9 point plus win for the Flames to see how it would all work out and I think we might get that with the Flames needing to win to give them a solid chance of claiming that last position.
Key Stat – The second quarter was key for the Sabres last time they met. It was 19-11 led by Emily Close (likely not to be playing this one too) who in the last minute of the quarter dropped two big triples to spark an 8-0 run to give the home-side the gap they needed. It’ll be a moment like this that shakes up the finals positions I anticipate.
COD Prediction: Flames by 9 points
Men (7:45pm)
LTTM: Sturt Sabres 86 (Daly 20, Spear 16, Rigoni 15, Nash 13) defeated Norwood Flames 77 (Harding 15, Green 13, Lycett 12, D Webber 11) – Split 9 points to Sabres
A home final is the line in this one still for the Norwood Flames playing a Sabres side that has just come up short in 2022. That’s what at stake for the Flames who will meet the North Adelaide Rockets regardless but it’s a question of whether they host the elimination or travel to the Launch Pad for it. The more pressing concern for the Flames is the record coming into the finals with a 2-3 record since their 6-0 run mid-season. This game needs to give them the spark and given the Sabres are now playing for pride I feel the Flames will want to find something to not only secure a home final but also some fire prior to the business end of the season.
Key Stat – Sam Daly was the difference last time they met with the first 8 points for the Sabres before adding another few buckets to finish with 12 points for the first quarter and a 27-18 lead; the Flames must get off to a quick start otherwise the Sabres will sniff the upset…
COD Prediction: Flames by 12 points
Forestville Eagles vs Eastern Mavericks – (Wayville – The Nest)
Women (6:15pm)
LTTM: Eastern Mavericks 53 (Lefebvre-Okankwu 16, Bradley 13, Gouchie-Provencher 11) defeated by Forestville Eagles 89 (J Simons 21, S Simons 20, Stratford 17) – Split 36 points to Eagles
The huge win last week against the Flames will mean nothing if they trip over against the Mavs in their final fling of the season. That’s unlikely to happen you think with the Mavs severely depleted with key players injured and off to the next steps of their season. One of the shining lights in Brigitte Lefebvre-Okankwu can finish her season strong and along with Dumnesy and Bradley show some metal for the aways side. The Eagles will be looking to fine tune having setup their campaign and look in much better shape than last season after being blasted away by the Rockets in the elimination final. They’ll be very keen to secure a double chance too so will get the dub here to give them that chance…
Key Stat – The Freer sisters Maddy and Jordyn scored 13 of the Eagles 27-42 in the first half before the Simons took over with Sam finishing with 20 points at 62.5 percent and 6 assists and Jess 21 points at 72 percent with 5/7 triples; It was a sister act and we are likely going to get a sequel…
COD Prediction: Eagles by 22 points
Men (8:00pm)
LTTM: Eastern Mavericks 84 (Legan 32, McCalop 20) defeated by Forestville Eagles 121 (Doyle 27, Brine 23, Johnson 21, Ipassou 18) – Split 37 points to Eagles
The interest in this lies with how the Mavs will come out having released their head coach Michael “Rojo” Rogers early. It’s the last chance for several big-name players to make huge impressions who including one I think should be strongly considered by the Adelaide 36ers (citing Liam Santamaria’s article about the club needing a local big if those suggested are not available someone in this team fits the bill; I’ll let you figure out who it is). It might be also Adam Doyle’s last chance to grab votes towards the Woollacott Medal which he’d be right in the thick of with his consistent form this season.
Key Stat – Doyle despite a poke in the eye early in the first quarter got his eye in more ways than one in the 12–38-point third quarter as he drained 6 of 6 beyond the arc to notch a 21 point quarter to finish with 27 points, 10 assists and 6 rebounds. Daniel Johnson got the Eagles going early to finish with a huge bacon double double of 21 points, 20 rebounds and 7 assists, Brandon Brine double doubled as well for 23 points and 12 rebounds while Fiston Ipassou dropped 18 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists.
COD Prediction: Eagles by 27 points
Southern Tigers vs Central District Lions – (Morphett Vale – The Cage)
LTTM: Central District Lions 59 (Washington 18, Samuels 14, Bennett 12) defeated by Southern Tigers 86 (Yaeger 28, Skinner 24, McKendrick 20) – Split 27 points to Tigers
Women (6:30pm)
The Tigers may know halfway through the game what’s at stake but as is usually the case some try to block that from the thought process. Regardless the Lions will be looking to give one last roar after a much more competitive season than we’ve seen in half a decade which is kudos to Scott Herriman and his program. Given the form the Tigers are in having won their last four in a row since the one that may be the decider in the end between them and the Flames; it’d be a shame to see them miss the finals so the only thing they can do is get this win in a big way and give themselves a chance that the other cats of the south look after their chances…
Key Stat – Yaeger drained 28 points including 12 of the 18 third quarter points when her team needed it, 7 rebounds and 6 assists when they last played; another 3 votes in the Halls could sneak her to it given she’ll still poll very strong across the season…
COD Prediction: Tigers by 17 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: Central District Lions 88 (Koko 26, Johnson 22, Deer 13) defeated by Southern Tigers 95 (Olbrich 29, Martin 23, Daniels 21) – Split 7 points to Tigers
The Safari Cup concludes with an exciting display of athleticism and a nod to the future with the likes of Sunday Bol, Nate Deer plus several Tigers rookies with Lachlan Olbrich and Curtis Scott now gone for the final two games of the season. Keep an eye out for Joe Coole, Dane Bobinac, Jamie Smith and can we please get ten plus minutes for “birdy” Tom Bertram in the last few games???
Birdy steps up at the vital moments I’ve seen many a time at district level…
Key Stat – A last quarter fast finish from Adelaide 36ers rookie Lachlan Olbrich got the Tigers over the line last time. The summation of the game came as Olbrich threw down a two handed flush to seal his career high 29 point and effort and 12 rebounds; two other Tigers reached 20s for the first time in the season with Martin and Daniels both getting there; just feel this time around the Lions have more firepower with the younger Tigers lineup…
COD Prediction: Lions by 8 points
Woodville Warriors vs South Adelaide Panthers – (St Clair – The Castle)
LTTM: South Adelaide Panthers 105 (Levicki 26, Johnson 25, Spencer 21) defeated Woodville Warriors 66 (Bartsch 12, Turnour-McCarty, Troia 11) – Split 39 points to the Panthers
Women (6:30pm)
Operation offence onslaught will be in full affect at the Castle as the Panthers women will not only need to strangle the Warriors offence but also put on enough points to ursurp the Sabres. As we said before a deficit of 91 points needs to be overcome and with the Sabres averaging 79.8 points per game (however against the finals contenders its 72.7) a final margin of 70 plus may be needed to avoid a tricky finish and a home elimination final. That suddenly makes this seemingly non-influencing contest the opposite. The Warriors also have incentive to make this very difficult for the Panthers. Will be watching this one from the other venue with intrigue to see how this Panthers win will play out…
Key Stat – The Panthers jumped out of the blocks 25-10 through Jade Johnson’s 23-point first half and the away side never really recovered; the Panthers may need this again to achieve that higher goal difference to the Sabres…
COD Prediction: Panthers by 50 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: South Adelaide Panthers 82 (Starling 32, Davies 22, Hoppo 13) defeated Woodville Warriors 91 (Stepney 22, Humphries 20, Meldrum 18, Jackson 12) – Split 9 points to the Warriors
The amount of keeping cards close to the chest will playout between these two who at the NBL1 Central finals table; will then play out their hands. With both first and third secure it’s a matter of running players into form ready for the final push. The Panthers may fancy a shot at a home final if in the unlikelihood the Eagles trip up big time to the Mavs to sneak up to second with a 13-point split over them. With that in mind the Panthers are a good chance to get the upset here away from home; their record is better away than home this season with 7 wins compared to 5. For me with a little more to play for they get the upset here but that likely won’t phase the Warriors too much as they prepare for either them or the Eagles in the second week of the finals.
Key Stat – When it came to crunch the Warriors once again came up with a defensive masterclass of 5-22 as they outlasted the Ninnis-less South Adelaide Panthers, that included keeping superstar Smith to just 2 points for the match; I expect the “Mid-Range Marvel” pencilled this one in months ago to make up all those lost points…
COD Prediction: Panthers by 10 points
North Adelaide Rockets vs West Adelaide Bearcats (The Light – The Launch Pad)
Women (6:30pm)
LTTM: West Adelaide Bearcats 84 (Fejo 23, K Pearce 18) defeated North Adelaide Rockets 63 (DeFrancesco 22, Taylor 16) – Split 21 points to Bearcats
Another chance for the Bearcats to fine tune their lineup prior to a big finals tilt having secured the top of the ladder (even if the Sabres triumph and join them equal) while the Rockets are playing for a bit of pride and to see who will be stepping up for season 2023. Brenton Johnston spoke to us prior to the season and suggested his team would land somewhere between 4th and 7th and he’s been pretty on the money with his team likely the best of the lower end of the table. The Rockets will throw everything at them but the away side will have too many weapons and should grab this one simply…
Key Stat – A 21-7 second quarter setup the West Adelaide Bearcats bullocking win last time they met. The quarter included a 10-0 run and 12 points in the paint led by the deadly form of Jasmine Fejo and veteran Michaela Lappin. Fejo finished with 23 points, 7 assists and 6 rebounds to lead all comers with Lappin’s 9 points crucial coverage for the missing Rintala.
COD Prediction: Bearcats by 33 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: West Adelaide Bearcats 77 (Cadzow 15) defeated by North Adelaide Rockets 92 (Akoh 25, Winn, Rathjen 17, Harrap 13, Marshall 11) – Split 15 points to Rockets
The Rockets at home will fancy themselves in the Mens and push for a home final if the Flames trip up at home. Its amazing to think despite the losses of Dech, Purchase and McVeigh that they continue to blow some teams out the water in halves of basketball. This team are still an incredibly potent offence and while this game may not affect ladder position for the Bearcats, it could be the last stern test of defence from the West that lights the fuse for a launch at back-to-back titles the coming weeks.
Key Stat – The 60-30 first half last time they met sealed it early for the unbeaten North Adelaide Rockets Akoh had his best game of the season scoring 15 of his season high 25 points and 7 rebounds in the first half
COD Prediction: Rockets by 12 points
Sunday 7/08/2022
Southern Tigers vs Eastern Mavericks (Morphett Vale – The Cage)
Men (3:15pm)
LTTM: Eastern Mavericks 89 (Legan 24, Dimakopoulos, McCalop 22, Raneburg 12) defeated Southern Tigers 82 (L Olbrich 22, Daniels 19, Machar 13) – Split 7 points to Mavericks
The dynamic of this one has changed a little since the abandonment of the original game. The Mavs as noted broke their losing streak last time against the Tigers but since then it’s still been a disappointing effort from the men dropping games with the squad they should’ve won and even though making finals was a long shot. Changes are already happening as the season concludes however in an ironic twist now the Tigers are also out of contention; the changes they’ve made might yield them an upset win away from home with Dimakopoulos likely to fully dominate and go close to mid-30s.
Key Stat – The big three for the home side completed the drought-breaking victory with Ioannis Dimakopoulos dropping 22 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists in his much-anticipated entry to the league with James Legan (24 points and 9 rebounds) and Koop McCalop (22 points and 9 rebounds) last time. They were some big numbers but all three have not fired at once for a number of different reasons…
COD Prediction: Mavericks by 6 points
We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in Round 18 between the Norwood Flames and the Sturt Sabres on Kayo and Kayo Freebies tonight.
NBL1 – Australia’s League
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