NBL1 Central 2022 Womens Grand Final Preview

Both teams have appeared in Grand Finals in the last decade, one tonight will win their first since the previous one. Here’s the analysis, the key matchups and statistics and predictions for the 2022 NBL1 Central Womens Grand Final.

A decade two years apart: Its been over a decade since both teams tasted success in 2007 and 2008. 

5-Minute Read

*The following article may have excerpts appear on the Basketball South Australia website to broaden reach of analysis

Women’s Grand Final Preview: West Adelaide Bearcats vs Sturt Sabres

When: 4:30pm (ACST), Saturday September 3

Where: The Lights Community and Sports Centre, Lightsview 

Broadcast: Kayo Freebies, www.nbl1.com.au

The last time

West Adelaide Bearcats 94 (Fejo 32, Utti 21, Rintala 13, Langenbrinck 11) defeated Sturt Sabres 82 (Williams 22, Close 14 Prosser 13, N Mathews 11) – Qualifying Semi-Final at the Bearcat Cave

How they got here

The fury of Jasmin Fejo was felt fully by the Sabres as she lifted the Bearcats to their first Grand Final since 2016 at the Bearcat cave 94-82 in the Qualifying Semi-Final. Pushing her case for a WNBL recall the All-Star Five guard amassed 32 points including 12 of 12 from the free throw line to steer her side to the lead through close to a full game. She got rolling with 12 for the second period and slicing her way through the Sabres for a 9-0 run. She fueled them in the fourth keeping the Sabres at more than arm’s length. Apart from the superstar Fejo’s hand, Madelynn Utti was the other force of nature with 21 points and 17 rebounds.

Meanwhile the Sabres had to take out one of the favourites at the halfway point of the season. In the Qualifying Final, The Sturt Sabres were not short on answers every time the Panthers tried to make a run as they sealed a convincing 55-69 win at the Jungle. It all changed in the second quarter as the Sabres turned up the claws on their fellow cats holding the Panthers scoreless for 3 minutes and reeling off runs of 0-11 and 0-7. That was instigated by the return of Emily Close, Jasmin Rigoni, the Mathews sisters and Mikayla Williams who dropped 7 points and 5 rebounds for the term. After their slip up against the Bearcats they looked in trouble at halftime in the Preliminary Final. It was a second half defensive clinic coupled with the Halls Medallist Mikayla Williams who when the game was there to be won grabbed it with both hands as the Sabres closed out the South Adelaide Panthers 74-70 at the Cave. The Halls Medallist had a season high 31 points, 19 rebounds and an efficiency rating of 41- she was the match winner in the final term.

The Bearcats have rolled in on a four-game winning streak and won 14 of their last 15 games with several players in and out during the season. Their coach in Kay-lee Stuart as well during that time had been absent with Australian duties. The Sabres found their match winner when it counted and once again showed their system stands up in finals.

Championship history

The Bearcats Women have waited a long time to get back to the big dance with their last appearance in 2016 going down to the North Adelaide Rockets 45-63. The Bearcats have won the championship six times and been in the Grand Final seventeen times. They made five in a row across 1989-1993 with back-to-back championships in 1992 and 1993. Notable players across these era were superstars Pat Mickan, Rachael Sporn, Cass Pujals, Sam Woosnam, Trina Balter, Debbie Miller and Heather McKinnon. They have not won since 2007 to which another club legend in Kaye-Lee Stuart will be looking to steer them to the promise land.  

This is the Sabres third grand final in a decade having made the 2011, 2014 and 2019 deciders with the two most recent going down to an average margin of just 3 points. While not an official NBL1 season they also won the ABC 2020 against the Southern Tigers. The Sabres have been in the championship decider just eight times winning five of those encounters. This included two across 2006 and their last one 14 years ago in 2008 featuring stars Renae Camino (Garlepp) and the Bowley sisters of Monique and Hannah.

These two teams have never met in a Grand Final in over 65 years- history will be made Saturday night.

The Stats

The West Adelaide Bearcats are number three or above in points per game (80.2), field goals (41), three point percentage (29.3), free throws (70), assists (21.4), offensive rebounds (16.3), defensive rebounds (34.6) and total rebounds (50.8). In their losses this season they have lower assist numbers then their season average in 14, 18 and 15 so stifling supply of the Bearcats and making them beat you one on one is the key.

The Sturt Sabres are number three or above in three point percentage (31), Offensive rebounds (14.6), free throws (72.5) and points per game (78.5 3rd). That tells you the Sabres often from their second chance points create plenty of free throw opportunities. As a result, their field goals (39.5), assists (18.1), defensive rebounding (29) and total rebounds (43.6) drop significantly in the numbers.

The Bearcats have five players averaging 9 or more points, three players with 10 or more rebounds and 3 or more assists.

Williams is the only player that averages over 10 points and 10 rebounds per game, but they have three players that average between 9 and 10 points.  

The Money Women

Jasmin Fejo – The star Bearcat is breathing down the neck of a WNBL contract and she’s a big-time performer. She was pivotal last time they met and will drive all aspects of this game. She can write herself into NBL1 Central folklore with another huge game performance from a player that has bounced back from some challenges.  
 
Mikayla Williams – She showed last week what a bonafide superstar she was by showing she had another gear we didn’t know. You know you are going to get a double double from her but if she plays like she did in the Preliminary final, taking her side and the Grand Final MVP will not be beyond her.

The Reliable Women 

Jasmine Simmons – You notice when she’s there by not noticing her and that’s the real gift of Simmons. The quiet achiever of the Bearcats averages 9.5 points including 60 percent from the field, 10 rebounds and 4.6 assists. She is the ultimate all-rounder for this team and should get a jersey for this game despite being on the Adelaide Crows AFLW list.    

Kayla Mathews – It was apparent when Mathews struck foul trouble in the semi-final how important her impact on the floor is. When she’s played 30 minutes plus in the finals her opponent averaged 9.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 5.5 turnovers. When she played under 20 minutes versus the Bearcats it was a very different set of numbers. She’s also scored some big-time go-ahead buckets and set the tone defensively for her side in the full court defensive sets.  

The X-Factors

Madelynn Utti – She has flown into this league and for a player her height has dominated the glass and the scoreboard. Potentially she can rip the Sabres apart like she did in the second half the last time they met with 15 points and 10 rebounds in the second half. The import is the smokey for the MVP in on the big stage.

Meg Prosser – Prosser is one spotlight game away from taking the next level to be a Sabres star player. She’s hit 8 of 14 from beyond the arc in the finals and in the absence of star junior Tayla Brazel had a huge season. I think she’s ready to show us what a special player she really is.

COD Prediction: Bearcats by 7 points/Jasmin Fejo Grand Final MVP

Catch all the NBL1 Central action tonight on the NBL1 website, app on Kayo and Kayo Freebies

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NBL1 Central 2022 Preliminary Finals Preview

There are a few aces up the sleeve and the question will be answered does lightning strike four times? Here’s the analysis, the key matchups and statistics and predictions for the Preliminary Finals of the NBL1 Central finals 2022…

Aces high and streaks alive: A hand is possibly yet to be revealed by the Panthers and a feat few thought achievable this season of beating a team four times remains alive coming into crunch preliminaries. Pictures by Snap Shot Photography and AllStar Photos

2-Minute Read

Women’s Preliminary Final

Sturt Sabres vs South Adelaide Panthers

Women (6:15pm) – The Cave

Last time they met

South Adelaide Panthers 55 (Forbes 12, Spencer 11) defeated by Sturt Sabres 69 (Prosser 14, Williams 13, Z Walker-Roberts 11)

Matchups that matter

Kayla Mathews vs Jade Johnson

If you wanted to know how important Johnson is hitting shots this season, you got the answer last Sunday afternoon. Equally if Mathews opponent gets off the chain like last week then it can destroy her side. Mathews struck foul trouble last weekend and it was telling as Fejo got a hold of her and the Sabres. The outcome of this matchup again will be key to the victory for either side.  

Mikayla Williams vs Ash Spencer

The Halls medallist was brilliant again last week and last time she played the Panthers; she monstered them. However, the Panther leader “Splash” found something last week that got her rolling. She had one of her fastest starts in the past few months with 8 in the opening term. We know she’s the engine room of this team as is Williams for the Sabres. Stop the engines and you stop the teams!!!   

Zoe Walker-Roberts vs Hannah Stewart

Both these players have provided the numbers often needed at both ends to steer their sides to the win. ZWR had just the 9 points and 4 rebounds going at a 10 in efficiency. On the flip side Stewart had a season high 23 points, 3 rebounds and a 28 in efficiency. When the Sabres won two weeks ago ZWR had 11 points, 6 rebounds and 16 in efficiency while Stewart had 10 points, 5 rebounds and an 8 in efficiency. The more efficient will likely come from the side that comes out on top.

Key Statistics

The numbers that matter were the Panthers last weeks versus the Flames. They split even on the rebounds 43-42, had 19 assists, 40 points in the paint, 9 fast break points and shot 50 percent from the field. In 2021 the numbers were 48.1 in rebounds, 20.9 in assists and without having the exact numbers I’m very confident that it was on average the similar numbers in the paint, fast break points and shot 41.5 percent on average from the field. It shows when they can, the Panthers transition game is the winning formula for their games coupled with some tenacious defence.  

The Central Closer

Different venue and different circumstances this time around and nothing changed in my opinion about the Sabres from week one despite the loss to an impressive Bearcats team last week. I think that maybe the Panthers have been holding a poker hand for quite some time and right on the cusp of elimination have revealed most of their hand. I just get my basketball gut feeling they’ve got one more ace up the sleeve to get them to the big dance and their first since 2003…

COD Prediction: Panthers by 3 points

Men’s Preliminary Final

South Adelaide Panthers vs Forestville Eagles

Men (8:15pm) – The Jungle

Last time they met

Forestville Eagles 90 (Purchase 22, Doyle, Johnson 19) defeated by South Adelaide Panthers 101 (Starling 32, Smith, Johns 19, Hoppo 14)

Matchups that matter

Alex Starling vs Adam Doyle

Ninnis threw the ultimate curveball last time they met sending his NBL1 Central DPOY to the Eagles champion guard. It proved a match winning move as not only did Starling give Doyle some headaches, but he also lynched the Eagles. He’s the key to stopping the supply of the scorers and the league’s best defender will get this match up again you’d think.      

Sam Johns vs Daniel Johnson

It takes one to know one and the former teammate of Daniel Johnson wound it back in a big way in the final a few weeks back. That was also the piece that was noticeably missing for the Panthers and regained by the Eagles against the Flames. No surprise to see these two matched up on each other again but can Johns do it one more time to see his side into a Grand Final?

Jarryd Hoppo vs Malith Machar

Another who just couldn’t get into the rhythm of the match last week will be keen to repeat the dosage of the first final. Machar however bounced back after a flat first week with 14 points. The fate of both teams hinges on the contributions of these two developing stars and their ability to make that clutch shot from outside the arc.  

Key Statistics

For three times in a row the Panthers forced the Eagles yet again into sloppy ball movement forcing them into 17 turnovers from 11 steals which the likes of Smith and Starling have capitalised on. If they can do it four in a row, then they are in the box seat but the Eagles will be aware of the trend and look to blitz the Panthers like the Warriors did. In the final quarter it was 5 second chance points and fast break points along with holding the Panthers to 6 of 17 from the field (35 percent).

The Central Closer

To paraphrase with some embellishment someone famous, “To lose once could be considered misfortune, to lose twice looks like carelessness, to lose thrice is possibly coincidence and to lose four times…”

We’ll find out the answer to that Saturday night…

COD Prediction: Panthers by 4 points in OT

We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in the preliminary finals between the Sturt Sabres/South Adelaide Panthers and South Adelaide Panthers/Forestville Eagles on Kayo and Kayo Freebies tomorrow.

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NBL1 Central Finals Week 2 Preview

Sometimes its over before it begins and momentum is rolling for sides out of week one. The intrigue still sits however with the incoming impact of the top of the table West Adelaide Bearcats and Woodville Warriors. Here’s the analysis, the key matchups, statistics and predictions for week two of the NBL1 Central finals…

Who's proven and who's not???: Two new sides are yet to prove themselves in their first finals series in recent memory while for others is it business time or out of time? Pictures by Snap Shot Photography, Picture IT Sports Photography and AllStar Photos

3-Minute Read

Elimination Semi-Final

South Adelaide Panthers vs Norwood Flames

Women (1:30pm Sunday) – The Jungle

Results this season

Norwood Flames 52 (Anderson 15, Basham 14) defeated by South Adelaide Panthers 79 (Spencer 34, Levicki 20)   

South Adelaide Panthers 56 (Johnson 21, Hunter 12) defeated Norwood Flames 76 (Basham 20, Wilson 19, Coleman 11)

Matchups that matter

Jordan Hunter vs Ally Wilson

One of the few Panthers and defensive stoppers that can stop the superstar Bendigo Spirit player who is in the form of her life. The Hunter vs Wilson matchup will be more than just a defensive one with the Panthers desperately needing a kick in their offence with Hunter to hit the scoreboard with 10 or more here.      

Jade Johnson vs Brooke Basham

A tale of two players one needing to fire and the other one finding fine form at the right time of the season. There are no more chances; Johnson needs to produce a massive game for the Panthers to stay alive. For Basham she’s cooking right now with an average of 24 in her last two games.

Ash Spencer vs Molly Coleman

Spencer at her best is a tough matchup for the Flames as she proved in Round 1 but missed their next encounter. She embodies everything about the Panthers line-up and simply needs an enormous game as well including a fast start. Coleman has been the perfect piece for the Flames and has come into the line-up and played her role. She’s getting the rewards with 19, 10 and 24 in her last three games and that’s posing problems for opposition coaches.  

Key Statistics

The Panthers worrying trend leading into the finals was exposed by the Sabres last weekend. What’s been happening for a month is an average 20 turnovers and giving up 19 assists to their opposition. That plays to the Flames favour as the number two in the competition for steals (11.7) and while the Panthers are number one; they had just 7 against the Sabres last week.   

The Central Closer

The form between these two has been quite polarising. The Panthers looked the goods till about four weeks ago and even then, I thought they would still turn it around with their finals experience from last season. It shows though having to change style of play on the fly is one of the biggest challenges for any club. That’s something the Flames have not had to do and right now they are burning brighter. I think sadly for one of my pre-season favourites it might be straight sets in 2022 for the Panthers.

COD Prediction: Flames by 8 points

Qualifying Semi-Final

West Adelaide Bearcats vs Sturt Sabres  

Women (3:30pm Sunday) – The Bearcat Cave

Results this season

Sturt Sabres 77 (Williams 15, Close 12, Rigoni 12) defeated West Adelaide Bearcats 62 (Langenbrinck 22, Fejo 19, Rintala 12)

West Adelaide Bearcats 80 (Rintala 25, Utti 18, Fejo 16, Simmons 14) defeated Sturt Sabres 63 (Williams 18, Walker-Roberts 14, Prosser 13)

Matchups that matter

Jasmin Fejo vs Zoe Walker-Roberts

The time has come for Fejo to really put her best foot forward and win a huge final for her club and get back on the radar for higher honours. It’s the Bearcats first finals appearance since 2019 where they went down in a thriller to the Mt Gambier Pioneers; since then she’s been around the Lightning radar. Her all-star five selection justifies her consideration as a key player in this one. Meanwhile the quiet achiever for the Sabres story is ZWR. Her impact is starting to be seen outside the four walls of Springbank and can damage the home side at both ends of the floor.  

Jennie Rintala vs Mikayla Williams

Rintala has wrecked the Sabres in both contests averaging 18.5 against them this season. It’s a difficult matchup for the away side on the rebounding front as well considering they still must contain Utti as well. The reigning Halls medallist is the likely matchup coming off another double figure and plus nine rebound performance (13 and 17) her eighteenth of the season (that one was compiled by AB from The Hoopsters NBL1 Central Basketball Show). This matchup will be a treat to watch on the glass with Rintala in the half-court and Williams in the open court. Williams accelerates off defensive rebound from first to fifth gear and Rintala finds different areas in the keyway to expose her opposition.        

Abby Brenton vs Emily Close

Two young ones to watch can provide their team the edge. Brenton has had a solid year and continues to produce numbers in key games with 7.4 points and 3.4 rebounds. Close bounced back hard last week particularly defensively in a crucial patch for the Sabres that squeezed the life out of the Panthers. I expect she’ll be back to hitting the scoreboard this weekend as she did their first win over the Bearcats.  

Key Statistics

The Sabres are one of three teams to have beaten the Bearcats this season and they did it similarly to the others. All three teams hustled the ball off the red and black with an average of 10.6 steals from the Bearcats 18.3 turnovers. Opposition have also been to the free throw line an average of 23 times. The Bearcats strength has been their glass domination as the number one in the competition and if they can get a hold of the Sabres those potential cracks can be kept shut.

The Central Closer

The Sabres have proved to me their style of play stands up in finals. The Bearcats as good as they have been this season are unproven but as well have overwhelming strengths. I think this one may come down to the moves from coach of the year Tim Shortt and the top of the table Kay-Lee Stuart. The Bearcats also have one too many class players but if any team statistically is equipped to stop the Bearcats; it’s the Sabres…

COD Prediction: Bearcats by 3 points

Qualifying Semi-Final

Woodville Warriors vs South Adelaide Panthers

Men (7:30pm Saturday) – The Castle

Results this season

South Adelaide Panthers 82 (Starling 32, Davies 22, Hoppo 13) defeated by Woodville Warriors 91 (Stepney 22, Humphries 20, Meldrum 18, Jackson 12)

Woodville Warriors 66 (Meldrum 12, Stepney 11) defeated by South Adelaide Panthers 90 (Smith 20, Starling 19, Davies 11)

Matchups that matter

Riley Meldrum vs Jeremy Smith

One of the most improved players in the league has the enviable task for the third time this season. That won’t faze Meldrum who has been one of the few to keep “The Mid-Range Marvel” and the reigning Woollacott medallist and MVP of the league quiet. He’s also done some scoring back his own way already averaging 15 points per game against the Panthers. Smith showed some fightback and despite just the 19 and 20 points the last two weeks compared to his season average; he’s ready to fire again…  

Jawan Stepney vs Alex Starling

Both have been able to matchup on any type of player this season. That flexibility has been key to both sides throwing their stars around to counter any type of offensive setup. What both of these players offer up will be of intrigue.

David Humphries vs Sam Johns

The silent achievers for both sides resulted in an all-star five position for Humphries and a huge timely performance for Johns. Humphries will be a hard man to stop but Johns is physically and mentally able to go on the ride with him and provide a painful points provision on the other side.  

Key Statistics

The Warriors sat back and watched that inspiring performance from the Panthers but can take advantage of their areas they’ve excelled at in 2022. They’ve held opposition to 79.3 points off the back of being number two for assists (22.1) and number one in turnovers least conceded. Last week the Panthers stole the ball 11 times and forced the Eagles into 17 turnovers; that’s something they’ll need again to do to the Warriors.  

The Central Closer

The story has been about the Panthers but let’s not forget the Warriors “Last Dance” is still happening and may have been forgotten. Reigning coach of the year Scott Whitmore will be under no false illusions about the task ahead however when tested when it’s mattered this season; him and his team have come out on top. Until they show they can’t, they still get the first pass to the Grand Final.

COD Prediction: Warriors by 9 points

Elimination Semi-Final

Forestville Eagles vs Norwood Flames  

Men (7:00pm Saturday) – The Nest

Results this season

Forestville Eagles 90 (Doyle 18, Purchase, Mays 17, Brine 12) defeated by Norwood Flames 95 (Huefner 21, McBride 20, Lycett 17, Green 16)  

Norwood Flames 72 (Barei 15, Green, Webber 10) defeated by Forestville Eagles 28 (Machar 28, Purchase 27, Mays 17, Doyle, Ipassou 12)

Matchups that matter

Malith Machar vs Matt Lycett

The Melbourne United DP got a taste of what the business end of things was like and came up a little shorter than he’d want. With some doubt over Ray Harding clearly after last week’s late mishap; Machar has plenty of advantages over the Flames. That may force the Flames to send Lycett to Machar despite probably wanting him to go to Daniel Johnson. Lycett was a huge problem for the Eagles back in their game at the Nest and can cause equal headaches for the Simons brains trust again.

Jack Purchase vs Daniel Webber

Speaking of difficult matchups Purchase has been just that for the Flames. He’s dropped 10 of 22 across both games beyond the arc and stretched thin the Flames defence. Webber seems the likely matchup all based on the fitness status of Harding.    

Greg Mays vs Anthony Green

The two excitement machines for the Eagles and Flames will be key momentum swingers. Mays has proven finals experience and Green also showed a fair bit of substance in the finals of 2021. Expect both to put on an air show but it’s the rim protection at the defensive end that will be worth watching their value for.  

Key Statistics

The Eagles were undone last week by some solid defensive work by the Panthers being forced into strange turnovers. The Flames managed to dominate the rebounds to setup multiple opportunities with 43-36 over the Rockets and if they can control that area against the number one rebounding team in the competition; they give themselves a chance.

The Central Closer

The Eagles would be hurting a huge amount after having last weeks game early in the piece and seeing the momentum of the Panthers take it away. It all comes down to personnel for both sides and I think the full strength Eagles will be just too strong this time around.

COD Prediction: Eagles by 15 points

We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in the second week of the finals between the South Adelaide Panthers/Norwood Flames and West Adelaide Bearcats/Sturt Sabres on Kayo and Kayo Freebies tomorrow.

NBL1 – Australia’s League

Please continue to support SA basketball news and features content being written, with our recent influx of work we are making content all free to read again but need constant contributions to make this happen