CROSS OVER DRIBBLE

Ally full of spirit - Ally Wilson dominated a high quality team last week with 48 points but one of the best stoppers in the league likely awaits her tonight - Picture by Picture IT Sports Photography 

3-Minute Read

Round 6

Saturday 29/04/2023

Norwood Flames vs South Adelaide Panthers – (The ARC – The Firedome)

Women (6:00pm)

A cracking opener to Saturday night basketball at the ARC with the Flames finding their fire and the Panthers showing they are hunting as a pack. The Flames led by Ally Wilson with the second most points in the three years of the NBL1 behind Olivia Levicki’s 51 against the Lions not only was spectacular – but considering it was against another contender must have some sturdy merit. She instantly has lifted this side into contention but the Panthers are the kind of side that can shut her down.

And she’ll likely see the defensive glove of Hannah Stewart once again – who in a timely way came to the fore against the Eagles but wasn’t needed as much against the Warriors. One of the most impressive parts of this Panthers team as spoken about on the Hoopsters NBL1 show Wednesday night is the bench depth. The Panthers are scoring 22.8 from their bench players like recruits Lauren Gibbons, De-Fran (DeFrancesco) and Bianca McDonald – the area they have remarkable improvement in this year so far. This is going to be a tight contest, but it’ll come down to the experience defence of the Panthers and coach Dickel’s ability to mix things up enough to counter an opposition while in great form if their key flame is doused – still have plenty to prove.    

Key Stat – Stewart has quelled the influence of Wilson in past seasons holding her to an average of 17 points and 6 assists…

COD Prediction: Panthers by 4 points

Men (7:30pm)

The Panthers responded in the perfect fashion on ANZAC day after their loss to the Eagles. They came out smoking and shell-shocked the Warriors with a 7-30 start – led by all sorts of weapons. It wasn’t Starling this time but combinations of Hoppo, Barton and of course that enigma of a man at this level Daniel Johnson. His triple double was a message of intent that if he wants to – he could still dominate the league weekly but the reality is in this team he doesn’t have to and he I think secretly loves that. He’s also probably also being loved not being guarded by Sam Johns one of the only players that can go toe-to-toe with him defensively as proved when he played for the Eagles in 2022.

I think we are going to find out a lot about the Norwood Flames this weekend regardless of result – its going to be about the look and feel of the Flames more than anything. That look includes Collin Smith starting to fire and looks an upgrade across four quarters in the centre position and the reborn nature of veterans Matt Lycett and Daniel Webber who look like they’ve found an extra gear early in the season. Holding that consistency is the key for the Flames but you feel the Panthers sounded a very loud warning sign to the rest of the league last week and will find a way to overcome the home side.   

Key Stat – The form of Collin Smith is starting to show us why he was such a star in his college and KK Kumanovo days – now up to 20.75 points and nine rebounds in 29.25 minutes.

COD Prediction: Panthers by 9 points

Forestville Eagles vs Woodville Warriors – (Wayville – The Nest)

Women (6:15pm)

The Eagles did enough to get over the Lions last week but again have shown they are a very beatable side in 2023. The step-up of Maddy Freer however has been a helpful bonus of the Borlase-less Eagles now up to #9 in the league for points with 19.5 per game and nine rebounds. At 20 years of age she’s a front runner for the Merv Harris award right now…

The Warriors hit a hurdle against the match hardened Panthers with the key part of Glenn Shaw’s game taken out – the rebounding and influence of their star centre Nicole Fransson. Now we get to see after being held by a top team how she and the Warriors respond and if you are going to play another side apart from maybe the Mavericks or Lions again – this might be the one matchup wise they want. The Eagles are still #9 in rebounding and to be a contender you’ve got to be in the top four at least for rebounds in your competition historically. I think the Warriors steal the upset here and it’ll be there best chance to beat the Eagles in multiple years.   

Key Stat – The Warriors are #1 in the competition for offensive rebounding with 19.3 – last game they were held to 15 and scored just the 54 points compared to 70 points per game.  

COD Prediction: Warriors by 5 points

Men (8:00pm)

Both teams come into this one with several questions unanswered from last round both surrounding their wins and their losses. For the Eagles it’s the plan B if Adam Doyle is taken out of the game influence wise. For the Warriors its their depth compared to 2022 and perhaps missing Wurn, Humphries even the experience of Boonstoppel. In a simple summary of this one these questions are to be answered and I think the Warriors have shown their ability to bounce back especially with the return of Scott Whitmore likely to bolster their strategic nous throughout the contest.    

Key Stat – Apart from being undone first quarter 7-30 at both ends of the floor – the Panthers took away the Warriors ability to hit the three ball shooting 23 percent and kept them off the free throw line with just nine attempts.

COD Prediction: Warriors by 5 points

Eastern Mavericks vs West Adelaide Bearcats (St Francis – The Shooting Gallery) – Kayo Freebies Game of the Week

Women (6:30pm)

Make no mistake the Mavs women aren’t too far away from getting someone and it could come with a signing that will suit if she’s ready for this one. The new player is no stranger to the league and would form a great combo with some of the existing members of this group. It also help give the Mavs some depth just in time for a team that desperately needs a win.

The Bearcats are currently a shadow of the unit we saw in 2022 and the Sabres exposed them big time for it. They’ll need a lift from some of their championship team to support the contributions of Aquino, Watkinson, Anderson and Coleman. You think they’ll be able to find a way to collectively to get this done but it all comes down to who takes the floor for both sides. I’ll take the Bearcats based on past history but don’t write off the home side scoing an upset tonight if they have their full arsenal to pick from.   

Key Stat – If they play the new recruit for the Mavericks will bring an average of 17.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.3 steals and 2.2 assists – that’s handy numbers to add to the lineup needing the right fit.  

COD Prediction: Bearcats by 15 points

Men (8:15pm)

The Mavs have shown vast improvement in season 2023 under Daniel Wray and they’ve started to find some genuine continuity on the court. But there is no sterner test right now than the in-form star laden side of the Bearcats now starting to climb the ladder. Legan was outstanding last round but that 25 plus per game needs to be the norm again tonight for the Mavs to have a chance to steal victory.

The Mavs biggest problem is where the matchups go – guarding Joel Spear may be neglected due to the coverage on McCarron, Drmic, Olbrich and De Santis. Whoever scores the fifth defender for the Mavs will be loose at their own peril and while I see the Mavs holding with them for a sustained period – I think the Bearcats may just have a little too much potency at both ends coupled with the experience in the line-up compared to their opponents.

But you never know if Legan gets on top and goes for league high numbers…

Key Stat – When Legan scores 20 or more the Mavericks margin is between -5 and +7 in season 2023.

COD Prediction: Bearcats by 18 points

Southern Tigers vs North Adelaide Rockets – (Morphett Vale – The Cave)

Women (6:30pm)

Another high-quality contest awaits in the women’s Saturday night with the Tigers knocking off the champions of last year Tuesday and the Rockets unable to snuff the flaming Wilson led Norwood. This game is not only pivotal to the now but could have repercussions in the future. I just get that feeling both these teams will either be in the top five comfortably or fighting for one of the remaining spots in 2023 but seasons end. Clashes against each other don’t come much bigger.

The advantage the Tigers have is their Matt Clarke spent a lot of time with the key players for the Rockets in Mansfield and Basham – he will know much of how to stop him and knows how to execute that to the players. But Johnston’s unit has been running out games strong as the pre-season fitness comes to the fore and will do in this contest. The longer this one goes and its tight the Rockets are favourable but if the Tigers are ahead comfortably at three quarter time and play at least 35 minutes of the scout on North – then they can grab this one at home. It’s a flip of the coin but the Tigers scoring power has been my biggest concern and I think North will turn it into a shootout and just prevail in bonus basketball.

Key Stat – In losses for the Rockets both Mansfield and Basham average 20 points but everyone else is under double figures…

COD Prediction: Rockets by 3 points in Overtime

Men (8:15pm)

Who enjoys roller coaster rides cause strap yourself in for this one and although both coaches will hate me saying this – it will be a case of scoring bonanza tonight. Both teams already we see like to play fast and push pace for opportunities to get above the rim to excite the fans so this one will be a must watch TV game not necessarily for skills but for flair. The players tonight include Koop McCalop against his former side, Akech Aliir, Donoven Carlisle and Durrell McDonald taking on Jett Thompson, Jimma Dau against his former side, Anthony Green and Fabian Johnson. Then add in Riley Harrap and Nic Logan taking on his old side and you have all the ingredients in this one.   

I don’t think there will be much defence in this one with a prediction both teams will score over 95 plus but think the Rockets have a little more and will overpower the Tigers with a triple figure score by the finish.   

Key Stat – Both teams are averaging 80.3 points and 73.5 respectively but give up 89 and 96.2 – the second and third most in the league.

COD Prediction: Rockets by 20 points

Central District Lions vs Sturt Sabres – (Starplex – The Den)

Women (6:30pm)

The Lions women even on their home floor will find this assignment one of the toughest of the season. The areas they did well in were the rebounding and evened out a lot of the numbers which resulted in the close loss to the Eagles. The downside was 58 points and scoring has been a problem this season with 61.3 – however we must look at this through the lens of 2022 that they are heading in the right direction. They averaged 63.1 across their 18 games but also were just at 39.7 rebounds, 13.3 assists, conceded 13.1 steals and 13.4 turnovers. In 2023 it’s 40.8 rebounds, 13.3 assists, conceded 12 steals and 14.7 turnovers but its more a feeling they are better version of 2022 already. The lift needs to come from De La Cerda in the scoring front having posted an average of 9.5 per game and you’d expect that to come.

The Sabres have been ultra impressive after completely taking away the game of the Bearcats in comprehensive nature. It was all done by committee as they smacked them in the shooting percentages, assists, steals, points from turnover and bench points. The game against the Mavericks – they lost the rebounding, they were forced to give the 25 attempts from the charity stripe to the Mavericks and the three-point percentages were down to 15 percent. If the Lions are to keep it as close – rebounding and forcing them left for their outside attempts. They may be able to do it for a half but a full game is whats needed against a contender that will pull away to a very comfortable win eventually.      

Key Stat – The Sabres have seven players averaging six or more points in 2023

COD Prediction: Sabres by 24 points

Men (8:15pm)

The Lions men have shown some big improvement in the last few rounds but only have the one win to show for it. It’s been the high shooting percentage of 46 percent, points from turnovers (13.5) and keeping turnovers and ball security down (14) – the work that Bol and Jenkins are doing in tandem has been a positive lift for the Lions. Add to that Sapwell’s ability to pick and choose his shot up in assists with and average of six over the last three games. Coach Rupert Sapwell has spoken of his team getting their gelling together with now the starting five starting to come together.

The Sabres nearly were run over by the Mavericks but still managed to win every key statistic despite the slender win. There does always seem to be one player that gets off the chain against the Sabres consistently, last week it was Legan with 26 points, before that it was Starling (22 points) and Aliir (20 points) – Branden Jenkins is the one they can’t afford to let get away from them. I think he will continue that trend and the Lions will win two in three games.      

Key Stat – The Sabres are struggling to put big points on the board but they can keep them off averaging 78 per game (#9 in the league) and conceding 78.3 per game (#3 in the league)

COD Prediction: Lions by 2 points

We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in Round 6 between the Eastern Mavericks and the West Adelaide Bearcats on Kayo and Kayo Freebies tonight.

NBL1 – Australia’s League

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Past Panther Memories - The Warriors remain unbeaten in the Mens 2023 but the last team bring them down the Panthers will be looking invoke the memories of last year's decider - Picture by @allstarphotos_au/All Star Photos and NBL1 Central

3-Minute Read

Round 5 (Part 1)

Tuesday 25/04/2023

Woodville Warriors vs South Adelaide Panthers (St Clair – The Castle) – Kayo Freebies Game of the Week

Women (1:30pm)

Both these teams played out a much tighter affair then anticipated in the last round of the 2022 season. There’s always been a bit in the matchup and after the Warriors competitive showing against the Rockets Saturday night – we are likely to see some testing from both sides. The Warriors will look to dominate glass having amassed 55 on Saturday night and the Panthers collected 45 in response in their game. Similar to the Rockets game it’ll come down to how the guards matchup with Jordan Hunter and Jade Johnson finding some early rhythm together as a potent combo for the Panthers. The return of Ash Spencer today likely makes Hunter even more dangerous in her influence. It’s a big job for Chloe Purvis and Naomi Allotey to contain their influence as you feel the front court will break even in this one. That difference should be enough for the Panthers to get across the line in a much closer contest likely due to the event and magnitude of the day.    

Key Stat – Jordan Hunter averages over 100 in offensive rating with Jade Johnson, Ash Spencer and Holly Forbes – she’s the architect once again of this year’s Panther out fit under Richard Dickel also averaging 6.8 assists per game top three in the league again!

COD Prediction: Panthers by 5 points

Men (3:15pm)

The rematch of last year’s Grand Final on the biggest stage in NBL1 Central 2023 – what more could you want, and it comes at another intriguing stage of the season. The Panthers were undone by the Eagles who broke their four-game streak over them while the Warriors continued their unbeaten start to the season just with a thrilling overtime win over the Rockets in a top three battle that is setup for an all-time classic. The Panthers were quelled by the Eagles ability to keep them off the offensive glass limiting their offensive rating by -30 and halving their second chance opportunities.

The Warriors have been “the balancers” and have balanced the ledger in all areas once again statistically in their control of the offensive end which makes them exceptionally difficult to guard anywhere on the floor. The defensive end of the floor is where they are most excelling as mentioned on the weekend and is a big part of their winning streak. If we look at last year’s Grand Final the point of difference was rebounding and the shooting percentage of 45 plus percent from the field – they key number to victory. Its billed as a classic for very good reason with both teams bolstering what were potent line-ups last year – and the stage is set for someone to come and grab this game again and you can’t go past the MVP of last year to get the Panthers across the line in a thriller.      

Key Stat – Out of all the players in these teams the X-Factor is Dev McGee in 2023 – averaging three offensive rebounds per game, true shot percentage of 64.5 and a game score metric percentage of 13.3 which tells us “Total value” on a player’s statistical performance in a basketball game. McGee compared to last season is +5 rising up from 8.3.

COD Prediction: Panthers by 3 points

Norwood Flames vs North Adelaide Rockets – (The ARC – The Firedome)

Women (1:30pm)

This one has a bit more fire to it with WNBL experienced guards and current former teammates clashing in the battle of the burn between the Flames and the Rockets. The Flames bolster Ally Wilson and Sharna Thompson in this duel who have been elite for the Flames this season. Thompson nearly passed her career high Sunday afternoon falling one short of her 33 points in 2018 against the Tornadoes in the Apple Isle ##. Her shooting has added a bit of depth the Flames were lacking on their roster start of the season where crucially in wins they are +38 in scoring, +13 in field goal percentage, +8.3 in points from turnovers and +10.8 in assists.

The Rockets have turned it around since their loss to the Sabres a few weeks back with the combination of Mansfield and Basham starting to settle. The key number is the assists which in losses there is a differential of eight – it shows you the importance of sharing the offensive spread around in this team and that’s when they look at their best. The larger amount of experience at the higher level on the floor gives the Rockets the ups in this one but Ally Wilson can also be a one-woman wrecking ball in this match to cause the upset too.      

Key Stat – The Flames are allowing 16.5 assists per game – that could come back to haunt them in todays clash

COD Prediction: Rockets by 7 points

Men (3:15pm)

Both teams come into this one in varying form with one having a run of some luck and the other again not doing too much wrong statistically. The Flames have found a bit of their identity in 2023 via transition at speed basketball. In their wins have averaged 11.3 point from turnover and 14 fast break points – nearly double and triple from their losses.

The Rockets need to be all about the defensive end having conceded an average of 99 points per game in their three losses this season. They aren’t that far off finding whatever formula it is that’s needed and it can be lead through Durrell McDonald finding some extra touch. He’ll take on Jack Stanwix in this one and has averaged 11 points and importantly one steal. Gaining enough possessions and stopping the Flames transition game is key for the Rockets – who out of the two teams look the better form one despite the losses early.   

Key Stat – The Rockets average 8.6 steals and will need double figures to overcome the Flames fast transition play.

COD Prediction: Rockets by 10 points

West Adelaide Bearcats vs Southern Tigers – (Port Adelaide – The Bearcat Cave)

Women (1:30pm)

Another game that’s going to tell us a lot of where both teams are really at. The Bearcats have some serious concerns at the moment in some key areas they were on-top of 2022. Smashed in assists, giving up more than 25 turnovers and 20 plus points through them and shooting the ball at around low 30 percent. This could be the game where its reversed or continues the trend.

The Tigers took care of business on Saturday night but the scoring issues still remain a question mark. The Tigers need points from Martin and some others to support the Halls medal form of McKendrick and some more recent encouraging form of Brittany Hernandez. Something has to give for the Bearcats with their roster – they are too good to not turn it around and I think today they’ll have had some extra time to think about it since Thursday and grab an important win.   

Key Stat – Despite the Tigers offensive wows – the Bearcats are giving up 75.6 per game.  

COD Prediction: Bearcats by 6 points

Men (3:15pm)

The Bearcats are rolling right now and did so right over the top of the Sabres on Thursday night. The addition of Olbrich has created additional movement and space which is clearly reflective in their results. The concern for the Tigers is how do they guard the full line-up of the star line-up.

The takeout from Saturday night is that the Tigers under Freer will be up and down like a yo yo but it’s a fun ride. Plenty of dunks, athletic play in spurts but its more about whats going on behind the scenes that will eventually translate to results. For now, though plenty of ball needs to go through Jimma Dau especially if Fabian Johnson doesn’t return this afternoon. There’s a huge chasm between these two and I think this one might be one of the bigger margins today.     

Key Stat – In their wins this season – Nyberg’s team is +10 in points from turnovers…

COD Prediction: Bearcats by 18 points

Sturt Sabres vs Eastern Mavericks – (Springbank – The Cave)

Women (1:30pm)

The Sabres were sharp on Thursday night plus have the bonus of being rested a few extra days that could play a part in this one. Tim Shortt’s unit is now rated #1 in field goal percentage (40.5), free throws made (14.6), points from turnover (16.4), assists (21.6) and steals (14.8) – the keys to their success.

The Mavericks were competitive for large parts of the Flames game Sunday and are still a work in progress. Watching live I was really impressed with Taylah Levy and the control she has with ball in hand this season. It also could be a great opportunity for some younger players to push their case for the future with plenty of teams still not settling on their final combinations moving forward. Sophie Miles and Airlie Ramsey look the next ones to step up averaging 18.5 minutes between them. In saying that I think the Sabres with the extra couple of days rest and evenness across all positions will get a comfortable win.    

Key Stat – Despite their losses the Mavericks are looking after the ball well giving them opportunities to be competitive – they average just the 14.8 turnovers per game.  

COD Prediction: Sabres by 15 points

Men (3:15pm)

This one is a toughie to call with both teams having valid cases for wins – even with one more historically favourable. The Sabres stats show at their best then at their worst is a large gap right now. The average is a differential of anything between 5 and 25 showing the Jekyll and Hyde nature of this year’s model. Not having Rigoni (undisclosed temporary injury) and Daly is hurting no double with the depth of this team and they’d love them back very soon.

The Mavs may be one of the few teams in the league that may have the ability to turn around the disappointment of Saturday very quickly. They were quite even with only the giving up 20 assists the huge issue. They also missed 25 triples to finish with 11 percent – this team can hit some big outside shots when they are going. I just have a sneaky suspicion we are going to get a James Legan special who hasn’t broken out for a big one this season and has enjoyed playing the Sabres in the past. The Mavs might get the upset here.   

Key Stat – Rebounding has been a big problem for the Sabres this season averaging 43.4 – their centres and forwards have collected 4.5 per game.

COD Prediction: Mavericks by 2 points

Forestville Eagles vs Central District Lions – (Wayville – The Nest)

Women (3:00pm)

The Eagles did plenty of things right against the Panthers on Saturday night – but no doubt it might have taken a bit of fuel out of them. A 45-point first half was terrific but after getting overrun in the second half – keeping pressure on the glass for 40 minutes still remains my concern. They are lacking a little more inside presence to support Rachel Hines – the lack of Katia Stamatelopoulos is telling now as well.

The Lions have been playing patches and have shown signs a win might not be too far around the corner. In last year’s corresponding fixture with arguably less talent on the floor – they got within a point of the Eagles. There’s no Sam Simons to pour 40 points on them and with Tiahna Sears and Imani Guy in the top ten in the competition for rebounds. If the Lions can be in the game at three quarter time – I think the games they previously played will play a part in how much energy was expended and the Lions may get the upset win to break their drought.    

Key Stat – The Eagles are ninth in the competition for rebounds with 40.5 per game.

COD Prediction: Lions by 2 points

Men (5:00pm)

The Eagles responded from their loss to Sturt by snapping their streak against the Panthers. It was done by committee, but the head of the Eagle was once again Adam Doyle. I pointed out that having the one assist was the key to the Sabres win but the Panthers let him get back on top of this area. Taking out Starling was key as well with Machar locking him down with his Dean Vickermann learnt new tricks.

The Lions were fun and athletic to watch on Saturday night, but two key things stood out to me about the Lions. Sunday Bol and Branden Jenkins looked after the basketball plenty only giving up the six steals in the match as well as minimal turnovers of nine. They won plenty of possessions to make it all work and Ngor Nai added some big stats as well. The Eagles should have the matchups down pat though and continue their form, but the last game of ANZAC day has sometimes thrown up the unexpected result.     

Key Stat – Machar’s improvement at the defensive end is highlighted in his game score at 13.1 compared to 14.9 in 2022 but is getting more scoring opportunities as will with an average of 18.6.   

COD Prediction: Eagles by 12 points

We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in Round 5 between the Woodville Warriors and the South Adelaide Panthers on Kayo and Kayo Freebies Tuesday ANZAC Day.

NBL1 – Australia’s League

Please continue to support SA basketball news and features content being written as well as national/international with the Pick and Roll – with our influx of work we are making content all free to read but need constant contributions to make this happen. $5 a month is all we are asking – If not keen to subscribe then please message to receive direct debit details how you can keep these quality features being produced