TD Forbes - A former Tiger in Jordan Forbes has been a big reason the Sturt Sabres men have been on a huge streak securing second on the ladder - Picture by Picture IT Sports Photography
3-Minute Read
Round 9
Saturday 27/05/2023
Forestville Eagles vs Southern Tigers – (Wayville – The Nest)
Women (6:15pm)
LTTM: Southern Tigers 58 (McKendrick 26, Hernandez 15, Stasinowsky 11) defeated by Forestville Eagles 64 (Hines 16, Freer 14, Simons 13, Annetts, Stamatelopoulos 8)
The last time these teams met things were very different on court as a scrappy opening half of the season descended into a thrilling finish. Since then the Tigers have been eyeing off the top of the table crushing their way defensively to a 5-1 record with only the Sabres blotting the copybook. It’s been off the back off increased offensive production as well thanks to the return of Morgan Yaeger who has yielded 17.8 per game and upping the overall point average to 78.9 per game which is now #3 in the competition.
The Eagles have needed to make a move to keep up with the other teams recruiting and they may have found that missing piece announcing the signing of 6 foot forward/centre Marissa Hamilton from Merrimack College Athletics in Buffalo to complement Annetts and Hines in the line-up. Landing a key signing has been what I’ve wanted to see from the Eagles to take them to the next level and that’s what they’ve done.
I don’t think it’ll be enough to stop this Tiger train but should give us good glimpse if the Eagles are finals contenders or going to miss just by seasons end…
Key Stat – The Tigers in their last five wins are averaging 80 points per game compared to their season average of 67 per game earlier in the season.
COD Prediction: Tigers by 15 points
Men (8:00pm)
LTTM: Southern Tigers 59 (Green, Logan 13, Dickeson 8) defeated by Forestville Eagles 101 (Machar 25, Mays 22, Rios 16, Wilson 9)
The Tigers second half of the season must be now aimed at a couple of key areas according to some stats. The league average for offensive and defensive rating is 99.9 for both categories (points scored and conceded per 100 possessions) – The Tigers average 84 per 100 possessions – that’s about ten points behind the Mavericks and Lions. The Tigers then concede around 108 points per possession just ahead of the Lions and Mavs. The top four concede around an average of 94 points so getting back that 14 point margin per 100 possessions is the key for the next half of the season. Freer has the personnel in place now and I’m sure we’ll all watch with interest.
Its not an ideal time to try and turn it around against a savage awaiting Eagles who suffered twin blows just before the state champ’s break. The lack of offensive firepower against both Bearcats and Rockets was slightly surprising only putting up an average of 75.5 across the past two games. The ironic thing is that Doyle, Mays, Machar and Rathjen were all down against the Bearcats and all fired against the Rockets – so where did they drop off? It’s a question that won’t be answered this weekend against the revamping Tigers but one to watch with interest…
The Eagles win this one but the Tigers will take a small amount out of this one if they can hold them to less than 90 points defensively in the process…
Key Stat – In their three losses the Eagles are in their defensive rating 111.4 compared to their seven wins where they are 88.7.
COD Prediction: Eagles by 28 points
Eastern Mavericks vs South Adelaide Panthers – (St Francis – The Shooting Gallery)
Women (6:30pm)
LTTM: South Adelaide Panthers 82 (Forbes 21, Hunter 14, DeFrancesco, McDonald 12, Stewart 8) defeated Eastern Mavericks 59 (Bradley 17, Dumesny 11, Levy 7)
The Mavs are a real shot in this one after finding some momentum with a win all be it against the Lions and a highly competitive effort against the Tigers last round. The impressive thing last week about the Mavs women was the fightback in the second half maybe not on scoreboard but little things like keeping Yaeger to just two points after halftime, shooting seven of seventeen in the third quarter and after conceding twelve threes in the opening half – cut it to five in the second half. It shows Kelson is getting change mid-game from her Mavs and shows progress and development in moving forward.
The Panthers are either ducking and draking right now or there are some concerns around their ability to put away some of the top teams. They’ve dropped to both the Tigers, Rockets and Sabres in recent matches to slide to three game losing streak and the Mavs is always a danger game. We need to see the Panthers roar back with victory now to silence doubters but more likely games against the Bearcats and Eagles might show us more. At the very least running Hatti Cox and Darcy Rees into touch might start to show us the Panthers can cause the top team’s problems – with that in mind they take this one in a tight one in preparation for a testing run ahead.
Key Stat – The Panthers losses in 2023 have shown glaring deficiency in scoring with 66.2 points at 33 percent and minus 13 rebounds per game!
COD Prediction: Panthers by 7 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: South Adelaide Panthers 94 (Starling 36, Davies, Hoppo 20) defeated Eastern Mavericks 79 (Hemphill 26, Rentoy 22, Legan 10, Ciabattoni, Gur 8)
The Mavs continue to improve in competing weekly with the next half of the season now the challenge of translating plenty of good building blocks into wins. Potentially this is one, but it does rely on who will be suiting up in a Panthers singlet this weekend. Regardless the potent form of Rentoy, Hemphill, Legan in combination and a surge in Gur action has seen the fans of Mt Barker with some hope they can indeed before the season is out more than smash their season best record in nearly half a decade.
The Panthers will miss DJ with 3×3 but will they get their other 36er back in Alex Starling? Big announcement and big performances come hand in hand with the star of our league and after notching 36 points, 21 rebounds, five assists and two blocks last time they met – if he plays look out for the impact he’s going to have in this one.
I do sense an upset in this one but there’s a bit more at stake with the fellow contenders around the Panthers having some slightly more winnable contests this weekend, so I think they’ll find a way to get it done – but its likely to be another thriller at the gallery.
Key Stat – The Panthers offence has dried up in its three losses this season with just the 66 points with alarmingly 23 percent from the three-point line.
COD Prediction: Panthers by 4 points
North Adelaide Rockets vs Central District Lions (Lights – The Launch Pad) – Kayo Freebies Game of the Week
Women (6:30pm)
LTTM: Central District Lions 63 (Guy 25, De La Cerda 20, Sears 8) defeated by North Adelaide Rockets 80 (Mansfield 24, Corrigan 14, Freer, Zbierski 10, Meyer 8)
A minor danger game for the home-side and this Lions unit have been not too far off in recent games sniff an upset. The Lions last few games against the Warriors (9 points), Mavericks (4 points) and Bearcats (7 points) show since getting blown out by the Sabres they are finding their groove. It’s a combo of Imani Guy and Jaedyn De La Cerda who’ve upped their contribution at the offensive end of the floor that’s seen that competitiveness – add to that keeping teams to an average of 78 points means the opposition score has been in striking distance.
The Rockets once again go into this one without Mansfield who was huge the last time they met minus Basham. This time Basham is there and starting to produce MVP like numbers. Basham now is number one in the league for points per game (25.3) thanks to scores of 26. 31 and 30 in her past three games – she staking her claim for another WNBL contract when free agency movement is rife. I think the Rockets have found some serious grunt in their team and even minus Mansfield – they should have too much on the floor for the competitive Lions who are going to get someone soon…
Key Stat – Guy since her 24-point second half against the Sabres has produced 14, 15 and 18 in her past three while De La Cerda has produced 15, 23 and 26.
COD Prediction: Rockets by 9 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: Central District Lions 70 (Jenkins 29, Baker, Garang, Nai 10) defeated by North Adelaide Rockets 95 (Harrap 31, Aliir 21, McDonald 17, McCalop 15)
Hello North Adelaide Rockets has it finally come time for take-off??? An uber talented offensive line-up scored two massive victories after starting the countdown with two wins against teams at the lower end of the table. The knock on this team has been defence for four quarters and that’s something we saw against the Panthers and the Eagles keeping them to an average of 85 – a very achievable mark considering they are still number in the league for offensive production with 85.4 points per game. It’s been driven by elevated from Akech Aliir and Riley Harrap but there has been remarked improvement from Donoven Carlisle and Durrell McDonald.
The Lions sitting in ninth need to win this one to be any chance of sneaking into the top five with only eight games left out of tonight the best they can achieve record wise is 10-8 which may not even be enough to sneak in with their opponents 6-4. They’ve got some personnel back that certainly can help their cause with Mangok Manyang and Nate Deer back to give them some depth but too much lays on the shoulders of Branden Jenkins.
With that in mind I think the Rockets chalk up win number five in a row…
Key Stat – Akech Aliir and Riley Harrap average over 16 per game in game rating in wins while in losses its less than ten.
COD Prediction: Rockets by 13 points
Sturt Sabres vs Norwood Flames – (Springbank – The Cave)
LTTM: Norwood Flames 55 (Thompson 22, Akuen 11, Kerridge 10) defeated by Sturt Sabres 88 (Brazel 17, Williams 16, K Mathews, Z Walker-Roberts 9)
Women (6:30pm)
The Sabres unbeaten and unmovable once again strike some luck of a team that could take them down. They also will have to do without the services of Tayla Brazel likely as she prepares for U19 World Cup – it’s a big loss taking out the #1 stealer in the game and likely top five in defensive pressure.
The opposition though have lost the #2 in Ally Wilson to 3×3 duties again but have the reinforcements and backup from smoky for the Halls medal in Sophie Kerridge and Mia Parkin who’s hit some good recent form.
The Sabres should take this one with next woman up – but it’ll be intriguing to see how both teams manage their players in this one minus such talent out of the line-ups.
Key Stat – The Flames get torched in losses with 24.3 turnovers – and struggle to win possession minus six in steals per loss.
COD Prediction: Sabres by 22 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: Norwood Flames 66 (Stanwix 22, Nuangki, Lycett 11, Dodson 8) defeated by Sturt Sabres 102 (Forbes, Turnbull 19, Dowdell 17, Rigoni 15, Nash 13)
Sabres are hot property right now on a five-game winning streak and defensively sound which is what you need heading into the second half of the season. They are the tightest team in conceding points in the league with a measly 74.8. They did that against both last year’s finalists – not bad form after that 44-point whacking at the hands of the Bearcats. Depth and time together on the floor have been the key to success along with Mr Triple Double (surely you can call him that after doing it twice and nearly multiple times in the season now) Jordan Forbes.
The Flames are simmering at the moment and now with Trey McBride back and a mysterious utility New Zealand recruit awaiting lighting up in the darkness – they are looking to strike now. Sitting 4-5 with one game in hand compared to other teams they have three of the next five against teams below them but of course need to pinch one or two off top sides to get back into the five. The Sabres have proven me wrong in season 2023 and have shaken some off the Jekyll and Hyde nature at the start of the season – and will continue the streak despite the Flames needing this one more…
Key Stat – The Sabres are ruthless in wins over their opposition holding opponents to 71.1 points per game, 35 percent from the field and 21.7 percent from beyond the arc.
COD Prediction: Sabres by 17 points
Woodville Warriors vs West Adelaide Bearcats – (St Clair – The Castle)
LTTM: West Adelaide Bearcats 81 (Watkinson 15, Fejo 14, Anderson 12, K Pearce 11, K McKay 9, Coleman 8) defeated Woodville Warriors 63 (Fransson 18, Perkas 10, Apacible 9)
Women (6:30pm)
The Wild West Showdown in the womens has extra spice tonight with just looking at who played the last time they met showing the story. The Warriors who sit just two wins behind the third placed Panthers can start by upsetting their cross-town rival and have brought in some handy recruits. Returned last round was Eliza Joynes and Annaliese Watkinson who continues her season and the green and gold but joining them will be also likely Molly Whitmore strengthening their push under returned coach Matt Atkins in the second half of the season.
The Bearcats despite escaping with an overtime win over the Forestville Eagles have many questions now left unanswered? Why are there so many name players missing the last few weeks, who’s going to step up into their space and how can they turn it around from here? The roster still with those absences still has a plethora of talent with McKay, Fejo, Aquino, Coleman, Simmons just to name a few – but as we’ve seen in the womens this year talent sometimes won’t be enough to get you the result. I think that’s the case this week with a much more seemingly gelled Warriors getting an important win to start the backend of their 2023 campaign charge.
Key Stat – The Bearcats were big from outside in round one draining ten triples at 48 percent – that deserted them in recent games ranked now seventh with 5.6 made at 27.2 percent.
COD Prediction: Warriors by 11 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: West Adelaide Bearcats 83 (Drmic 24, DeSantis 22, McCarron 16, Hunter, Spear 8) defeated by Woodville Warriors 93 (Stepney 23, McGee 21, Jackson 14, Osborne 11)
On the flip side for the Warriors in the men’s – finding that spark from last season is key against a powerful Bearcats unit. It might come in a former quiet finalist who may return tonight which has been swirling around the circuit. Joe Jackson has been steadily finding form and influence but nothing like a win against the local rival might see the Warriors find their groove.
The Bearcats have been in cruise mode since getting Olbrich – they are currently 6-0 but tonight is a danger game against last years finalists minus 3×3 squad member Mitch McCarron. It gives a great opportunity for the depth to be tested with likely not wanting to tinker too much the very faithful Hamish Staude I predict likely to get this first start of the season. We are likely to see more of Sean Stock and Fraser Roxburgh as well – the depth runs deep in Port Adelaide.
I’m not sure I can despite no McCarron the Warriors halting the seventh straight win for the Bearcats.
Key Stat – Since acquiring Olbrich not only has their record been perfect but they also average a winning margin of 39.8 per game.
COD Prediction: Bearcats by 20 points
We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in Round 9 between the North Adelaide Rockets and the Central District Lions on Kayo and Kayo Freebies tomorrow.
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CROSS OVER DRIBBLE 