CROSS OVER DRIBBLE

It’s a special week not only for basketball but for our First Nations people of NBL1 Central clubs – headlined by some must win clashes to kick off part one First Nations Round  - Picture by Picture It Sports Photography 2022

3-Minute Read

Round 14 Part One

Thursday 6/07/2023 and Friday 7/07/2023

Southern Tigers vs South Adelaide Panthers – (Morphett Vale – The Cage)

Women (Thursday 6:30pm)

LTTM: South Adelaide Panthers 62 (Spencer 18, Stewart 13, DeFrancesco 13, Forbes 8) defeated by Southern Tigers 79 (Martin 16, Hernandez 14, McKendrick 13, Stasinowsky 11, Hall, Yaeger 10)

The Tigers open First Nations Round at their home of the cage with non-other than the southern showdown – which they’ve dominated despite the Panthers high finishes on the ladder. They’ll be disappointed with their loss to the Sabres on Sunday having given up through the majority of the game 60 percent from the field to their other cats rival. 24 turnovers also marred the Tigers game along with only 21 percent from beyond the arc.  Again, those markers for Southern tell the story of their game along with remaining competitive on the glass – but currently are only breaking even.

The Panthers have slipped to fifth on the table with the Bearcats and Eagles breathing right down their neck. Scoring in big game again seems to be where the Panthers need to find their claws after managing 49-35 in the opening half against fellow contender the Rockets they only managed another 25 points across the remaining 25 minutes including overtime. Those drop outs of scoring through the season may ultimately hurt this team by seasons end – they have scored only 15 or less a quarter 17.5 times in season 2023…

In the context of the season for both teams winning this game is crucial – The Tigers need the win before they take on the Rockets which with two wins could seal second place by First Nations Rounds end. The Panthers with the Flames awaiting on Saturday night still have their destiny in their own hands, but this weekend is a massive challenge to split both games.

The streak and the head says the Tigers but if there was ever a time to break it -tonight is it for the Panthers.            

Key Stat – The Tigers have not been beaten by the Panthers since 2019 – they are on a eight-game winning streak

COD Prediction: Tigers by 12 points

Men (Thursday 8:15pm)

LTTM: South Adelaide Panthers 97 (Johnson 20, Ellison 17, McVeigh 17, Davies 11, Barton 10, Myles 8) defeated Southern Tigers 53 (Johnson 17, Dickeson 9)

The Southern Showdown did not follow a traditional script the last time these two teams met – they are normally very close and very competitive, but the Panthers pushed away the Tigers by a large margin last time. Now the Tigers a little more experienced than the last time they met will be extremely desperate to notch that first win with the skin of their rivals the Panthers.

How can the Tigers utilise their strengths to challenge the Panthers? They can rebound and simply they’ll need a good shooting night – in their games they have challenged they shot the ball at 45 percent or more from the field and the three-point line. Stopping the Panthers on the offensive glass which their #1 in as well as grabbing those second chance points which their #2 in the league for.

You’d think the Panthers will get this one comfortably but the Southern Showdown apart from the last one throws up unusual results normally.    

Key Stat – The average margin between the Panthers and Tigers since 2019 has been 8.6 points – Southern Showdowns always deliver no matter the personnel. Was their last meeting being possibly an outlier???

COD Prediction: Panthers by 28 points

Norwood Flames vs Forestville Eagles (ARC – The Firedome)

Women (Friday 6:30pm)

LTTM: Forestville Eagles 59 (Hines 17, Annetts 12, Freer 10, A Brett 8) defeated by Norwood Flames 72 (Smith 25, Kerridge, Parkin 12)

Last time they met both teams were fourth and fifth on the table and who knew months later down the track both would still be in the race for the finals – I admit I certainly didn’t think so.

But a lot can change when you insert Ally Wilson, Jada Rice and Marissa Hamilton from the last time they met into these teams. Rebounding was very important the last time they met with the Flames winning it by a shade and hitting an extra five triples from beyond the arc.

The scary thing is the Flames have bolstered their lineup from that victorious team eyeing off a top three finish even grabbing second place is still in play with Eagles, Panthers and Rockets to come. While the Eagles can really set themselves up for a spot in the elimination final returning to where they were in 2022.

It’s a tight call in this one but the Flames just have the edge with their current form and any team with Ally Wilson can change the momentum of a match mid quarter is going to be a warm favourite majority of games.            

Key Stat – The Flames have found ways to turn the game right around after losing quarters – in their last four games against West Adelaide, Eastern, Southern, Woodville they have outscored the opposition seven times in the preceding quarter.

COD Prediction: Flames by 4 points

Men (Friday 8:30pm)

LTTM: Forestville Eagles 96 (Rios 30, Doyle 14, Mays 10, Rathjen 9, Jurecky 8) defeated Norwood Flames 59 (Nuangki, Smith 12, Lycett, Stanwix 8)

Are the Flames a genuine finals contender? All the pieces are in place but taking down the second placed Eagles would certainly stoke the believe amongst the NBL1 Central basketball community. There’s been some good signs, but this game is the genuine test of whether they can find their way into contention or whether potentially by luck of the draw they scramble in to at least see the first week of action.

The Flames last finals appearance in 2022 was to the wings of the Eagles as they tried to run them over in the final quarter. If there is an area of concern for the Eagles against the top of the table Bearcats last weekend – it’s the rebounding where they got done by West including 13 offensive. The Flames in their wins where they’ve pulled it all together are averaging 15.5 per game.

The Eagles will be keen to secure the win to almost sew up a top two position, but the Flames need to win all their remaining games to land on 11 to jump ahead of the Warriors and Rockets.

This one is very close to call considering it’s at the ARC and the Flames didn’t have McBride, Miller-Jose, but I still just get the feeling the Eagles will flex their muscle and bounce back from last week.            

Key Stat – The Flames have made home very comfortable in season 2023 – with +6 in points and an offensive rating of 107.5 (+8).  

COD Prediction: Eagles by 4 points

Eastern Mavericks vs North Adelaide Rockets – (St Francis – The Shooting Gallery)

Women (6:30pm)

LTTM: North Adelaide Rockets 100 (Basham 26, Meyer 19, J Freer 16, Corrigan 14, Badenoch 14) defeated Eastern Mavericks 77 (Taylor 20, Otto 19, Bradley 17)

Huge danger game of the North Adelaide Rockets in this one with the Eastern Mavericks on a two-game winning streak and filling very confident right now.

The Mavs are starting to click at the back end of the season under Vikki Kelson who has steadily changed the makeup of the youngest team in the league. The numbers that standout apart from the scoring which is +33 in their wins is points from turnovers (+5), Points in the paint (+22) and the big one plus 12 in assists. Getting the ball moving in offence and utilising multiple post targets could give the Rockets some significant trouble as they gun for a top three finish.

The Rockets have been challenged in their last three games and responded accordingly – The Warriors were right there at halftime before putting them away, same with the Bearcats and then surviving overtime against the Panthers last week. While there is still a string reliance on their two WNBL stars in Basham and Mansfield – Brenton Johnston has his second unit in good nick right now approaching the business end of the season.

I think the Rockets sneak this one with their depth but do not be at all surprised to see the Mavs chalk up win number three in a row – but if North are serious about finals then they need this one in the bag.    

Key Stat – The form of Badenoch, Corrigan, Meyer and Freer is telling in their wins – averaging 33.7 per win compared to 23.2 per loss…

COD Prediction: Rockets by 5 points

Men (Friday 8:15pm)

LTTM: North Adelaide Rockets 102 (Harrap 32, Aliir 20, McCalop 17, Carlisle 16, McDonald 11) defeated Eastern Mavericks 89 (Ciabattoni 23, Hemphill 20, Raneburg 13, Legan 11)

It was a high scoring contest between these two last time they met, and it’s bound to be turned into that again…

However, I don’t think Mikey Rogers will be keen for a close one as they hunt all three wins across the remaining rounds – while relying on teams ahead of them to slip up to sneak into the elimination final again. They’ll be buoyed by the news Akech Aliir will be an Adelaide 36ers development player and likely to remain for NBL124 season, but the Mavs main man James Legan will be looking for a bit of revenge against this team that locked him down for just 11 points last time.

A backend of the season explosion for Legan is definitely on the cards. His teammates have been working hard to get him into the game with plenty of off-ball action clearing anywhere between the halfway line and three-point wings. If Dan Wray’s Mavs can break even with the Rockets on the rebounding through Hemphill and Gur then they are a chance to steal this one and end the Rockets slim chances of making the finals.

With the Tigers this weekend – this result could setup an early elimination final between the Rockets and Flames next weekend.

But I think the Mavs get this one in an upset to finish with one of their best seasons in recent memory…

Key Stat – Both teams lit it up last time they met nailing 26 triples in the match – the shooting gallery could be open again in this one.

COD Prediction: Mavericks by 3 points

We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in Round 14 between the Central Districts Lions and the West Adelaide Bearcats on Kayo and Kayo Freebies Sunday.

NBL1 – Australia’s League

Please continue to support SA basketball news and features content being written as well as national/international with the Pick and Roll – with our influx of work we are making content all free to read but need constant contributions to make this happen. $5 a month is all we are asking – If not keen to subscribe then please message to receive direct debit details how you can keep these quality features being produced

A Common Thread - Jake Rios has been part of the Forestville Eagles Men's last three titles including 2013, 2019 and 2020's ABC Challenge - Picture by Tanya Fielding Photography (2013)

3-Minute Read

Round 13

Saturday 1/07/2023

Norwood Flames vs Woodville Warriors – (ARC – The Firedome)

Women (6:00pm)

LTTM: Woodville Warriors 74 (Watkinson 13, Fransson 12, Perkas 10, G Winter 9, E Winter 8) defeated by Norwood Flames 86 (Thompson 37, Wilson 17, Smith 14, Akuen 9)

Opening game of the night holds importance to both sides in different circumstances with the Flames keen to jump ahead of the teams below them on the ladder into a clear top three spot while the Warriors can play spoiler with the winner of another game this evening unfortunately closing any chance of a mathematical finish in the top five.

The Flames win against the Tigers last week was ultra impressive after running down a 31-point opening quarter. Ally Wilson and Jada Rice drove the takedown from the front with 24 points, 14 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 steals while Rice had her best game of the season amassing 14 points, 21 rebounds and two blocks. Sharna Thompson added 14 points to the scoring in the second half to finish with 20 points to add more pain to the Tiger wounds.

The Warriors had no answer last week for the Eastern Mavericks but in some ways its not surprising. Like a boxing match this team against the Flames last time, Bearcats, Tigers, Rockets landed big blows were in the games deep into the fourth, but I witnessed first-hand the inability to land that final blow and when the Mavericks got off to a start like they did last week – it’s understandable they couldn’t rally again. Now the pressure is off and they are a team you don’t want to play down the stretch as they challenge the rebound count (equal #2) and they do make you turn the ball over (#5).

The Flames however showed against the Tigers pressure they could exude their own and I think they’ll find a way to get this one done.           

Key Stat – The Flames are still get torched in losses with 26.4 turnovers – and struggle to win possession minus three in steals per loss.  

COD Prediction: Flames by 12 points

Men (7:45pm)

LTTM: Woodville Warriors 73 (Stepney 21, Jackson 14, Osborne 12, Meldrum 8) defeated Norwood Flames 71 (Stanwix 19, Nuangki, Lycett 14, Smith 11)

The Flames are sixth and the Warriors fifth – It’s another must win game with the split just two points between both and a spot potentially up for grabs in the top five still there for the taking by seasons end.

Trey McBride has been a key and his game last week against the Tigers sums up his play on return to Australia. It’s like he was in the passenger seat controlling his team and quietly put together a stat line of 20 points, six rebounds, five assists and steals to set everything up. I need to see more of Canadian college graduate and master of the tomahawk in Isaac Miller-Jose with his 13 points and 11 rebounds before I get too excited but as many have pointed out he’s got some qualities about him that exude NBL vibes potentially with some more big-time performances. Key with the Flames also being back in the final conversation is Jack Stanwix (18 points) and Moses Nuangki (17 points) consistently hitting the scoreboard – Nuangki’s become a firestarter off the bench for this team.

The Warriors Jawan Stepney remains the hope for the Warriors returning to the finals in 2023 and although the Mavericks pushed them hard again – the inclusion of David Humphries and Joe Jackson finding a bit of his previous season form has certainly helped their cause. Their destiny like many teams as I said on the Hoopsters NBL1 Central Basketball Show Wednesday is in their hands with this game a must win followed by clashes against other ladder climbers Forestville, Sturt and South Adelaide who will be eager to continue their winning ways.

This goes completely against the form line but I’m backing the Warriors into their system and grind and go approach – as I didn’t against the Rockets, and they reminded me they are only one piece away from a similar side to 2023’s Grand Final unit…

Key Stat – Defence is where this game is won with the Flames giving up +4 in points compared to their opponents but the Warriors give up 3-4 less points from turnovers and second chance points.  

COD Prediction: Warriors by 4 points

Forestville Eagles vs West Adelaide Bearcats (Wayville – The Nest)

Women (8:00pm)

LTTM: West Adelaide Bearcats 81 (Aquino 22, Coleman 21, Simmons 11, Fejo 10) defeated Forestville Eagles 80 (Hines 20, Freer 19, Simons 15, Morello 8) in OT

The last time these two teams played is when the Eagles started to make their move under Georgia Crouch. Nearly stealing the win at the Bearcat Cave – the Eagles shot 10 of 17 in the fourth quarter to send the game to overtime. Apart from that they didn’t win many of the key categories. It sparked wins against the Rockets and the Panthers after a slip up against Southern then nearly stole it against Sturt last week. Statistically they lose most categories each week but only by a small margin which keeps them in games much more in recent times.  

The Bearcats are 2-3 since their last meeting and triples continues to be their barometer as a unit nightly. In wins they are 30.2 percent from beyond but in losses they are 21.2 percent. Jasmin Fejo is also a key averaging 18.6 points in their wins but only 11 points in their losses. Fejo is also very good away from the home court averaging 17.3 points per game. Only Aquino and Coleman produce consistent numbers weekly, but this team is clearly missing the depth they had in 2022 with many loyal names gone from their roster in recent months like Langenbrinck, Lappin, Keeley and Alex Pearce.

The Eagles have that depth in their bench like the Brett’s, Marissa Hamilton or Alana Morello and their young core coming through – and I think they get it done on the home floor in this one but containing Fejo and Aquino are a must if they play.    

Key Stat – The Eagles outside shooting makes them a bigger threat in their wins and close losses averaging seven makes per game.

COD Prediction: Eagles by 11 points

Men (6:15pm)

LTTM: West Adelaide Bearcats 100 (DeSantis 21, Olbrich 19, Roxburgh 18, Drmic 13, Spear 9) defeated Forestville Eagles 54 (Mays 11, Doyle 8)

The Eagles will have a big night plan with the 2013 championship side celebrating their anniversary of their title – with a former Sixer in Adam Gibson scoring 24 points against the club they toppled 81-73 in the decider.

You wonder if its all coming full circle for the Eagles a decade on with a lineup balanced and worthy of a shot at a top two finish. Greg Mays flew again last week as they grabbed an important split and jump ahead into second place by two wins. Mays accumulated 21 points and nine rebounds including nailing some game sealing free throws. I’m loving the work of Adam Doyle (19 points and five assists) and Brad Rathjen (19 points and five assists) who both hit seven of the Eagles eleven triples between them. Add to that the form of Malith Machar and the depth of Jordan Wilson, Isaac Jurecky, Stefan Gould, a former NBL DP in Owen Hulland – then not bad having a man who’s been around for over a decade in Jake Rios.

But awaiting them to spoil the celebrations are the Bearcats who hammered them the last time they met. They had no answer defensively to the 57 percent from the field, 39 percent from beyond the arc, 26 assists and 20 points from turnovers. They had no answer offensively being kept to 28 percent from the field and six percent from beyond the arc. The Bearcats were minus Drmic last week but Roxburgh filled the void with 16 points and four rebounds. Regardless of who’s out there – this one will be much closer between one and two on the ladder.

With a tougher run ahead for the Eagles they need this win to keep ahead of the pack…    

Key Stat – Jake Rios is a key man in Eagles title contending sides – he’s been there for the last three titles against West Adelaide (2013), Mt Gambier (2019) and the ABC win over Sturt in 2020…   

COD Prediction: Eagles by 3 points

North Adelaide Rockets vs South Adelaide Panthers – (Lights – The Launch Pad)

Women (6:30pm)

LTTM: South Adelaide Panthers 76 (DeFrancesco 14, Spencer 13, Johnson 11, Stewart 10, Hunter 8) defeated by North Adelaide Rockets 82 (Basham 31, Mansfield 19, Meyer 13)

Rockets in fifth versus the shaky South Adelaide Panthers in precarious fourth – It’s another must win game for two teams trying to secure their split with Rockets up by six points.

The Panthers again last week did what they needed to do against the Lions to get the win but perhaps the most important piece of last week was to get Darcy Rees dominant. She produced 16 points and 10 rebounds in clearly her best performance of the season against Imani Guy and could potentially get a hold of Tayla Corrigan and Erica Meyer if Hunter and Stewart can find their defensive nous again against “Bash-field”.

Basham and Mansfield continue to be the instigators of the Rockets rise up the ladder. Now they need two of the other four to lift their numbers slightly to really be a threat and I think it could be Jordyn Freer and Tayla Corrigan that could lift their sevenish points and sixish rebounds closer to double figures per game.

Both Dickel and Johnston having been playing the long game with survival of the fittest likely to win out – I think the Rockets have shown they are priming for the end game soon and will take out the win at home here.   

Key Stat – The Panthers losses in 2023 continue to show glaring deficiency in scoring with 62.7 points at 33 percent but have corrected their rebounding per game with Rees inserted…

COD Prediction: Rockets by 10 points

Men (8:15pm)

LTTM: South Adelaide Panthers 73 (McVeigh 22, Johnson 18, Ellison 12, Davies 10, Barton 9) defeated by North Adelaide Rockets 77 (Harrap 26, Aliir 15, McCalop 14, Watson 9, McDonald 8)

Only two wins separate fourth and seventh with the Rockets with a late run and win here holding the split against the Panthers.

For the Rockets an average of 91 is what opposition have crept up to against them since their double win that weekend which is a bit concerning for coach Mikey Rogers. They are still number three in the league for offensive production with 87.1 points per game. It continues to be driven by elevated from Akech Aliir and Riley Harrap but five players scoring double figures in their wins is the winning formula for the red and white. Akech Aliir and Riley Harrap are still average over 15 per game in game rating in wins while in losses its still less than ten.

Daniel Johnson’s 35 point and nine rebound return and Jarryd Hoppo’s final term of seven points to add 15 points and six rebounds off the pine steered the Panthers into the lead with minutes left. The Panthers 25-9 final term was typical of a champion team that doesn’t know how to say die and grabs crucial wins in recent seasons when it counts. When the pressure is thrown on this team – it responds accordingly which is why you don’t write this team off from the title whatsoever.

That’s why they’ll take out this one against the Rockets which should be a fun contest between Starling and McCalop again…

Key Stat – The Panthers offence again has dried up in its five losses this season with just the 72.4 points with alarmingly 22 percent from the three-point line.

COD Prediction: Panthers by 8 points

Central District Lions vs Eastern Mavericks – (Starplex – The Den)

LTTM: Eastern Mavericks 86 (Otto 27, Bradley 24, Levy 23) defeated Central District Lions 82 (Sears 29, De La Cerda 23, Guy 15)

Women (6:30pm)

The Mavs game last week it all came together with Tayla Levy played the game of her short career to help the Eastern Mavericks piece together all pieces of their puzzle. She levelled up for 35 points at 66 percent with four triples, 10 assists and six rebounds with Jannon Otto returning from a short injury lay-off with 20 points, seven rebounds and five assists and Olivia Bradley continuing her recent form with 19 points and six rebounds and two blocks.  

The Lions vast improvement continues to be in their defence but their average of keeping teams to an average of 86.6 points means the opposition score has been a bit beyond their striking distance. They’ve given up 91.5 the last two rounds – a game against the Mavericks gives them the opportunity to grab their second win of the season. They are keeping teams to an average of 14 points less per game on their home floor meaning this one closes the gap more.

Each team has a big three right now with Otto, Levy and Bradley and De La Cerda, Sears and Guy but the breaking point between these teams is Peyton Taylor – if she can have a big game then the Mavs in slightly better form can take the win here…

Key Stat – Guy since her 24-point second half against the Sabres has scored no less than 13 points per game while De La Cerda has produced four 20 plus point games since that evening.

COD Prediction: Mavericks by 4 points

Men (8:15pm)

LTTM: Eastern Mavericks 96 (Legan 30, Hemphill 24, Raneburg 17, Rentoy 9, Gur 8) defeated Central District Lions 73 (Jenkins 27, Manyang 13, Bol 10, Baker 9)

The Mavs are still hungry in 2023 to have an impact on the final ladder looking for their best finish in a decade – along with the Lions, the Rockets, Bearcats (potentially locked into top two) and Sabres await grabbing two of the last four at least would sign off a strong season for a team that’s been cellar dwelling for seasons. Dan Wray certainly has had the personnel on the floor to score the ball – and after a recent chat I know James Legan will belooking to finish the season with a flurry. Like his 30 points last time he likely could go off tonight against the Lions in a one-on-one with Branden Jenkins worth watching.   

The Lions defensive numbers is the key indicator of their competitiveness as highlighted by Sapwell in 2023. Centrals are giving up 91.5 points per game but are also putting up 85.4 per game – bringing those numbers closer by seasons end is the key.

It’s another flip of the coin in this one – so I’ll take home court advantage being the difference just in this one.  

Key Stat – Both teams leak significant points with over 90 per game – so if you enjoy scoring and highlights this one is worth a tune in…

COD Prediction: Lions by 5 points

Sturt Sabres vs Southern Tigers – (Springbank – The Cave) – Kayo Freebies Game of the Week

LTTM: Southern Tigers 53 (Yaeger 20, McKendrick 12, Stasinowsky 10) defeated by Sturt Sabres 85 (Brazel 22, N Mathews 10, Prosser 8)

Women (1:30pm)

It’s One versus Two in a Sunday blockbuster.

The Sabres on their heritage night clawed victory from the wings of the Forestville Eagles to avoid defeat again – making it 14 wins without a blemish but not without hiccups. Mikayla Williams is rolling her way to a Halls Medal win with another 22 points and 17 rebounds in a game where the margin went only beyond a couple of baskets. Every challenge that has been thrown at this Sabres lineup has been answered – but a big test looms today at the Cave. My educated guess is that there will be no Brazel given team-mates at the COE will not play any games till August now and will with her head to Spain on July 4.    

Morgan Yaeger threatened along with the rest of the team to take out the Flames from the three-point arc as they rained in 13 triples for the game – this can be a tough cover for the Sabres. The Tigers would be stung by their loss to the Flames last week and with the Sabres secure for a finals spot might be able to take them out of their routine today. Last time they met it was the up-court pressure from the Sabres that got them as the Tigers gave up 24 turnovers and 12 points from them to go down by 11.

They will never get a better chance this season to reverse the previous result in the coming day – so I’m predicting the Tigers will end the Sabres run but maybe not for the worse for this team heading to the finals.      

Key Stat – Both teams are the most miserly in the league by a long way holding their opponents to an average of 60-61 points per game.   

COD Prediction: Tigers by 7 points

Men (3:15pm)

LTTM: Southern Tigers 80 (Thompson 19, Machar 14, Green 13, Logan 11, Dau 10) defeated by Sturt Sabres 90 (Rigoni 34, Rasmussen 19, Forbes 14, Daly 9)

It was only ten points the last time they met.

Paul Rigoni’s chargers however have been ruthless in their five wins over their opposition holding opponents to 73.1 points per game, 36.8 percent from the field and 22 percent from beyond the arc.  

The Tigers second half of the season has been aimed at a couple of key areas according to some stats. The league average for offensive and defensive rating is 99.9 for both categories (points scored and conceded per 100 possessions) – The Tigers average 85.9 per 100 possessions – which is still about ten points behind the Mavericks and now Rockets. The Tigers then concede around 110 points per possession just ahead of the Mavs but the Lions have jumped ahead. The top four are still concededing around an average of 94 points so there is still work to get back that 16-point margin per 100 possessions is the key for the next half of the season.

A great story from Scott Freer’s Southern Tigers point of view though is another new starter for them in Jok Bulabek finished with a solid 15 points and nine rebounds getting his opportunity along with young players like Dickeson. The future if the Tigers can hold onto these players through their development years is bright.

Stranger things have happened on Sundays but you’d think with the importance of securing a win the Sabres will find a way to prevent any upsets from occurring.

Key Stat – The Sabres statistically are ranked third in multiple categories which aligns with their ladder position potentially by the end of the round.

COD Prediction: Sabres by 14 points

We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in Round 13 between the Sturt Sabres and the Southern Tigers on Kayo and Kayo Freebies Sunday.

NBL1 – Australia’s League

Please continue to support SA basketball news and features content being written as well as national/international with the Pick and Roll – with our influx of work we are making content all free to read but need constant contributions to make this happen. $5 a month is all we are asking – If not keen to subscribe then please message to receive direct debit details how you can keep these quality features being produced

Eye of the Tiger - In their wins this season the second placed Tiger Women are shooting the three ball at over 30 percent and keeping turnovers to under 13 per game - Picture by Picture IT Sports Photography

3-Minute Read

Round 12

Saturday 24/06/2023

Southern Tigers vs Norwood Flames – (Morphett Vale – The Cage)

Women (6:30pm)

LTTM: Norwood Flames 75 (Thompson 24, Kerridge 21, Wilson 10, Akuen 8) defeated Southern Tigers 67 (McKendrick 21, Hernandez 17, Stasinowsky 14)

Opening game of the night is second versus third with the split only a couple of buckets in it.

Plenty has change since that last loss for the Tigers with the Tigers in at the time #8 in the league (68.2) with 30 percent of their total inside shots coming from inside the paint. To add to that only McKendrick had made more than 10 attempts inside the paint – these were telling numbers. But the addition of Yaeger into this team has swung that around – now the Tigers are ranked #5 for points per game and still #2 for opponents points per game. Its amazing how Yaeger with an average of 20.7 per game has reinvigorated this Tiger team but not surprising. The attempts inside paint is interesting to see too – now four players have over 40 attempts plus for the season. McKendrick has also missed three games recently showing their shaping as the contender to take on the Sabres by season end.

The Flames look set to fire now but having taken care of some teams with them and underneath them now they run of Tigers, Warriors, Eagles, Panthers and Rockets to finish the season. All are still in vital contention but also present a chance to see how far this Flames unit can go. Last time against the Tigers they forced them into 24 percent from beyond the arc and forced 19 turnovers out of them. On the flipside the Flames in their wins this season are +21 in points, +8 in points from turnover and +6 in assists – that’s the Ally Wilson effect but you can add Jada Rice and Jorjah Smith to that as well now.

A tight one to call when it comes down to the line, so I’ll take the home side at full strength likely but it’s going to be one of the games of the night – they’ll do just enough to get the split as well knowing Matt Clarke’s urgency down the stretch.

Key Stat – The eye of the Tiger team in their wins is shooting the three ball at over 30 percent and keeping turnovers to under 13 per game.       

COD Prediction: Tigers by 9 points

Men (8:15pm)

LTTM: Norwood Flames 104 (Stanwix 40, D Webber 20, Smith 17, Lycett 14) defeated Southern Tigers 99 (Johnson 36, Dau 23, Green, Logan 13, Thompson 12) in OT

One of the surprise contests of the season the last time they met with both teams taking the game to overtime – but plenty has changed for both sides since the last time they went all the way to the final shot at the ARC.

The Tigers last time they met their opponents were averaging 12 turnovers and concede 11 steals telling you winning more possession in the game was the key moving forward. In their strongest performances opposition had 13 turnovers and conceded 13 steals and shot lower field goal percentages. The Tigers are sustaining their defensive pressure for longer as the season rolls on showing marked improvement in this group.

The Flames have had a good recent run after their last shock loss to the Lions but putting away lower table sides has been a challenge for a team trying to prove they can claim up into the top five. The Bearcats game gives you a good indicator what their peak is – 56 percent from the field, 44 percent from beyond the perimeter, 13 steals, 5 blocks and 18 points from turnovers. The Flames need a good start in this one because if the Tigers get a bit of momentum then we may end up with another tight finish and extra basketball.

My gut says the Flames will take this one sometime in the fourth with one too many additions to this team – but I won’t count out the home side from getting an upset win.  

Key Stat – The Flames struggle to get lit up against teams down the lower end with the Flames averaging 9-point margin per game* (minus last weeks matchup against the Mavs)

COD Prediction: Flames by 7 points

South Adelaide Panthers vs Central District Lions – (Mitchell Park – The Jungle)

Women (6:30pm)

LTTM: Central District Lions 59 (Guy 20, Sears 15, De La Cerda 10) defeated by South Adelaide Panthers 103 (Forbes 26, Johnson 18, DeFrancesco, Stewart 11, Watson 10, Spencer 9)

I’m gonna say it – I’m really worried about this Panthers team.

The Panthers have dropped important games throughout the season and are now walking a tightrope – and they may not be able to just fall in this season. After the Lions tonight the Rockets, Tigers, Flames and Warriors await with no guaranteed wins there so getting this one tonight will be important. The key glaring stat is the scoreboard in their losses – it sits at 63.3 per game and is clearly not enough to win games of basketball if your playing top of the ladder defence.

The Lions are in as good as nick as they’ve ever been to take another upset scalp. The form line the last month is 1-3 with field goal percentage of 35 percent and 15 assists. It shows they are moving the ball and making better decisions at the offensive end of the floor. On their given night they can play a full game of defence and like their win against the Flames – just need it all to stick at once consistently. One more gun player on this current roster could move things forward significantly for them in 2024 but for now they are every chance to upset the Panthers.

Despite all that until they do so – the Panthers have a red-hot record over them without even looking at the numbers likely averaging about a 40 plus win against them the last five years. The home side wins but this will be one of their closer encounters they have but simply the Panthers just need to win this one…

Key Stat – The Panthers concede 67.6 per game which is top three in the league but have given up 75.8 per game in their losses this season.

COD Prediction: Panthers by 11 points

Men (8:15pm)

LTTM: Central District Lions 94 (Jenkins 39, Baker 24, Sapwell 9) defeated by South Adelaide Panthers 97 (Starling 35, Hoppo 21, Johnson 17, Johns, McVeigh 8)

Another team needing a win after a couple of bad recent losses is the Panthers however getting back their lineup has been a key aspect to their success this season.

The Eagles confirmed their breaking of the streak with their win against them last week and have highlighted some key areas they may not be quite as much on top of as normal. An additional six turnovers showed the ball security has been a struggle this season.

They couldn’t have played much better last time they met against the reigning champs and only a Star-ling bomb separated defeat and victory. The Lions then were bottom three for a majority of the key numbers but were top three in winning possession through steals averaging 16.5. They are now fourth in three-point percentage (32.5), points from turnovers (11.1), points from fast break (9.1), offensive rebounds (13.6) and fifth in overall scoring with 85.6. They are a scoring machine but are also giving up plenty of points with 91.9 per game – it’s a part of where they are at as a group as Sapwell described recently in his interview on the Hoopsters NBL1 Central basketball show.

The Panthers should get an important win but the Lions are more than capable of grabbing this scalp as well.

Key Stat – In their championship year the Panthers won four of their games by less than two baskets – since that Lions escape in 2023 it’s been one win and two losses by less than two baskets – slim margins are playing a part in their season.

COD Prediction: Panthers by 8 points

West Adelaide Bearcats vs North Adelaide Rockets (Port Adelaide – The Bearcat Cave)

Women (6:30pm)

LTTM: North Adelaide Rockets 89 (Basham 30, Mansfield 20, Zbierski 14) defeated West Adelaide Bearcats 76 (Aquino 21, Coleman 17, Simmons 10, Anderson, Fejo 8)

The Rockets are coming hard now and starting to put together some good form heading into the final phase of the season. Now they’ve climbed to #6 in the league for assists with 12.5 but in their wins its 21.2 per game. The combo of Basham and Mansfield were at it again but for them really to solidify this one tonight they need both Tayla Corrigan and Erica Meyer to fire.

The Bearcats pushed the Sabres hard for a half last week but were overwhelmed in the second half 22-46. Its hard to put your finger on where they are at but as a part of the 7-6 logjam they are still in the race with a run of the Eagles, Lions, Mavericks and Tigers to finish so potentially they have wins ahead if they can sneak this one.

The Rockets are in the slightly better form but Aquino does look a game breaker if the Bearcats were to win at home tonight – I’ll take the Rockets just though overall.      

Key Stat – In 2023 the Bearcats average in their key losses are 32.5 points in the paint and 6.8 second chance points.

COD Prediction: Rockets by 15 points

Men (8:15pm)

LTTM: North Adelaide Rockets 54 (Harrap 15, Aliir, McCalop 11) defeated by West Adelaide Bearcats 112 (DeSantis 22, Roxburgh 19, Stock 18, Drmic 16, Olbrich 12, McCarron 10, Spear 9)

Did the stream of this last match get deleted from the Rockets?

Maybe but it did highlight some issues with the defence and conceding high amounts. When the offence dried up after quarter time against the Warriors last week – it showed all be it small gap between the top five and next five currently. It is also with this group their best chance of winning which is a double-edged sword in some ways. Defence seems to be the thing that the Rockets are working hard on as noted but are still conceding an average of 101.7 and rebounding is -6 in losses in 2023.

There’s a reason why I haven’t mentioned the Bearcats much in this one as at the moment they have all the pieces in place, and we are just waiting on what they do at the business end of the season, but they’ll still need to respect the Rockets firepower and athleticism.

The Bearcats should win this one even minus Mitch McCarron but stranger things have happened before in these games.  

Key Stat – The Bearcats blitzed the Rockets out of the blocks with 5-26 in the first term and ended up with 18 triples at 44 percent last time they met – fast starts and a good clip from beyond the arc have been a key since that game to the Bearcats record.

COD Prediction: Bearcats by 13 points

Eastern Mavericks vs Woodville Warriors – (St Francis Mt Barker – The Shooting Gallery)

LTTM: Woodville Warriors 83 (Fransson 21, E Winter 18, Perkas 16) defeated Eastern Mavericks 74 (Otto 23, Levy 19, Dumesny 10, Formby 8)

Women (6:30pm)

The Mavs competed super hard against the Flames for three and a bit quarters minus Otto, Taylor and Levy. Despite those players missing with various issues the Mavs have upped their offensive production to 67.8 points – the goal in the last phase of the season is to try and get the consistency up into the 70s to really give their defence a chance to close the gap. The top teams are averaging 60-70 points conceded per game with the Mavs sitting 83.9.     

The Warriors are #1 in offensive rebounds with 17.8 but average 19.8 turnovers in their losses. That’s been the key to being in winning positions but also where its fallen over – as Katherine Perkas noted this week on the Hoopsters NBL1 Central show. The Mavs average 43 rebounds per game so creating those second chances will assist the Warriors I think to getting that win tonight.   

Key Stat – The Warriors love to solidify their presence in the paint – in their wins this season they’ve amassed an average of 54 points per game there…

COD Prediction: Warriors by 12 points

Men (8:15pm)

LTTM: Woodville Warriors 128 (Stepney 34, McGee 18, Meldrum 14, Janssan 13, Jackson 11, Maiorana 9) defeated Eastern Mavericks 89 (Hemphill 22, Legan 19, Raneburg 17, Rentoy 15)

The Mavs continue to move themselves off the bottom in 2023 in scoring, second chance points (#4 in the league), rebounding, assists (#5 in the league) and most importantly turnovers – in fact they are conceding only the 15.1. The Mavs are still a straight-shooting team in 2023 – they still take a large percent of their shots from the middle three and have made 132 which is #3 in the league in 2023. They are not an easy team to play and have gone close to upsetting a few sides in recent times and could still finish just outside the top five.   

The Warriors are still #1 in the league for keys such as bench points, least turnovers conceded (13.5) but have dropped out of some other categories. They have a tough run coming up and need to win this one desperately to keep ahead of the rest – but the Mavs have been sharp in recent times but I’m trusting in their ability to deliver under pressure with experience and game breakers like Stepney and Humphries.

Key Stat – Just like the last time they met – when the Warriors turn up the defence they only give up 33 percent inside the deep paint, 15 percent from the right wing and 12.6 percent from the left-wing triple.

COD Prediction: Warriors by 14 points

Sturt Sabres vs Forestville Eagles – (Springbank – The Cave) – Kayo Freebies Game of the Week

LTTM: Forestville Eagles 64 (Freer 18, Simons 16, Annetts 14, Hines 8) defeated by Sturt Sabres 85 (N Mathews 18, Prosser 16, Brazel 14, Williams 13, Z Walker-Roberts 8)

Women (6:30pm)

The Sabres key weapon is their on-ball pressure averaging 13.5 steals per game (#1 in the league). It’s been unsettling many teams so the team that’s going to be strong against them is the one that doesn’t concede turnovers. The Eagles do give up 18.2 per game on average from their style of play.  

In their wins this season the Eagles average 74.4 points, 44.4 rebounds, 13.9 turnovers and 19.9 assists. Against the season favourites in the Sabres last time it was 64 points, 35 rebounds, 20 turnovers and nine assists.

A huge win for the Eagles would prove their credentials and backup the win over the Panthers but its hard to see them upsetting the unbeaten Sabres.

Key Stat – The Sabres are the first team in 2023 to guarantee their spot in the finals this season – does that play a part in the finish to their season?

COD Prediction: Sabres by 5 points 

Men (8:15pm)

LTTM: Forestville Eagles 78 (Rathjen 22, Hulland, Mays 14, Machar 11, Doyle 10) defeated by Sturt Sabres 81 (Forbes, Rasmussen 21, Brennan, Nash 11, Smith 8)

The Sabre rebounding and ability to restrict their opposition at the offensive end earnt them the chance for the win last time they played the Eagles and they proved it.

The Eagles on the other side had their offensive ability was slashed by the Sabres through denying ball movement (-8 in assists), denied deep paint touches for scores as well as the wing triples and left corner. Adam Doyle had just one assist last time they played after averaging 5.5 per game in all their wins to that point.

The Sabres are a huge chance here to claim the split and the upset, but the Sabres run after this one has the Eagles needing this one a little more in what should be a terrific clash in the Sabres heritage evening on the Kayo Freebies Game of the Week.

Key Stat – The Sabres continue to be miserly this season conceding 77 points per game.    

COD Prediction: Eagles by 4 points

We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in Round 12 between the Sturt Sabres and the Forestville Eagles on Kayo and Kayo Freebies tonight.

NBL1 – Australia’s League

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