The finals are upon us and the first week brings rematches from the season worth revisiting and will determine who meets the Sabres and Bearcats next week.
3-Minute Read
Qualifying Final
Southern Tigers vs Norwood Flames
Women (Saturday 6:30pm) – The Cage
Results this season
Norwood Flames 75 (Thompson 24, Kerridge 21, Wilson 10, Akuen 8) defeated Southern Tigers 67 (McKendrick 21, Hernandez 17, Stasinowsky 14)
Southern Tigers 72 (Hernandez 19, Yaeger 17, Stasinowsky 15, Martin, McKendrick 8) defeated by Norwood Flames (Wilson 24, Thompson 20, Rice 14, Kerridge, Smith 8)
Matchups that matter
Morgan Yaeger vs Ally Wilson
Two in-form experienced at this time of the season players in the WNBL duo of Yaeger and Wilson will be a treat to watch. Yaeger is the league’s most elite three-point shooter with 45.56 percent while Wilson leads the league for assists (7.58) and defensive rebounds (9.92) – the equation in some ways is simple the Flames need to stop Yaeger and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the two lock in head-to-head in a battle royale.
Mollie McKendrick vs Sharna Thompson
McKendrick is made for finals and she’s ready to go again. She missed the Tigers final campaign in 2021 spending the season with the Mavericks. She had a huge first half the first time they met with 17 points but then was quelled in the second half – the last time they met she was still on the way back from an Achillies. Thompson has gotten away from the Tigers a few times with an average of 22 points and while Wilson will drive it – her ability to stretch the Tigers defence from the perimeter should be of concern to the home side.
Brittany Hernandez vs Jada Rice
Brittany graduated from Colorado Springs before hitting Europe for Sparta, Greengewald and Mark Marbo has hit them more than once in recent games and the form line is the best of her season right now. She’s chalked up 16 or more points (outlier is the Sabres game), had seven or more rebounds in four of the five games and produced ten blocks across this stint. The Flames were one of those games where she had 19 points, nine rebounds and a block. She’s setting some tones defensively which is what the Flames will need from the Uni Alabama Athletic’s Jada Rice. Averaging close to a double double she won this battle after halftime with Hernandez with 14 points and 21 rebounds. It’s a pivotal duel in this contest.
Key Statistics
It’s the eye of the Tiger that produces the wins for Southern by shooting the three ball at over 30 percent and keeping turnovers to under 13 per game. Yaeger’s addition mid-season elevated the Tigers to fifth in scoring and number one in three pointers made with 8.9 per game. The Flames are second behind them with 8.3 per game – in the Flames two wins though they’ve held the Tigers to a combined 28.5 percent and were forced into 17 turnovers. Both teams will be trying to do this to each other with the Flames dropping to 29.1 percent in their losses and turning the ball over 23.7 times.
The Central Closer
Have the Tigers found a way to overcome their two deficiencies as per the stats? The Flames do matchup well with the Tigers however finals is a different experience and you juts think with enough experienced heads both on and off the floor that the Clarke constricting defence will find a way to lockdown the Flames shooters so it’ll likely be a grind but an entertaining one at that. Defence gets it done in these big games and I think the Tigers will strike first in the finals series.
COD Prediction: Tigers by 5 points
Elimination Final
North Adelaide Rockets vs South Adelaide Panthers
Women (Sunday 12:30pm) – The Launch Pad
Results this season
South Adelaide Panthers 76 (DeFrancesco 14, Spencer 13, Johnson 11, Stewart 10, Hunter 8) defeated by North Adelaide Rockets 82 (Basham 31, Mansfield 19, Meyer 13)
North Adelaide Rockets 85 (Corrigan 19, Badenoch 18, Basham 13, Mansfield 11, Meyer 8) defeated South Adelaide Panthers 74 (DeFrancesco 16, Forbes, Spencer 13, Hunter, Stewart 9) in Overtime
Matchups that matter
Lauren Badenoch vs Sam DeFrancesco
The Panthers recruited “DeFran” for one purpose this season – to address scoring fadeouts in finals. In 2021 they could only get 16 points in the final term, then in 2022 they could only get 11 in the preliminary finals. She needs to fire for them to get 16 or more in those key quarters and the form line isn’t too bad running into the finals with double figures in four of her last five games. Her former teammate Badenoch will very much know the danger she is but has also found some form also notching double figures in three of her last four.
Brooke Basham vs Hannah Stewart
The league’s number one scorer with 23.35 per game could be the matchwinner between these two sides and it showed in their last encounter. Bash was nullified for a majority of the contest but came back strong in overtime with most of the points in the 15-4 period. It was assigned last time to Hannah Stewart who played big time denial defence on her – will Richard Dickel go with her again and back her in to finish the job. If Stewart can stop Bash then it goes a long way to seeing them through to the next week.
Darcy Rees vs Erica Meyer
The two big centres can determine the outcome of this contest with an out of the box performance. Rees averages 7.38 points and 6.38 rebounds while Meyer averages 8.53 points and 6.59 rebounds. Both scored less than 8 points the last time they met – the one that can expose the other and get to double figures for their team can win off their own hand the game for their team.
Key Statistics
I might have harped on it, but it remains the number that stands out for the Panthers – 21.5 quarters yielding 15 points or less – but they are currently on a 24 or more streak across their last three quarters.
The Panthers losses in 2023 continue to show glaring deficiency in scoring with 64 points at 27 percent – however in their wins its 88 points per game 45 percent from the field. The Rockets its similar with 65 points and 37 percent in losses but in their wins 88 points and 47 percent. The separator is their general defence with the Panthers giving up the third least in the league with 70.3 and the Rockets the fourth most with 75.1.
The Central Closer
Both teams got in on the final week and there are arguments for both as to whether if they proceed beyond this week if they can get through. Given the Panthers experience the last two seasons they may hold the slight edge off paper cause on it the Rockets look like taking this one. If the Panthers got through it could open right up with if ladder positions follow the Flames then having to break a hoodoo potentially against either the Sabres or the Tigers to get into grand final…
Being not favourites this year may have its advantage at the business end of the season – and I think they may get this one.
COD Prediction: Panthers by 4 points
Qualifying Final
Forestville Eagles vs Sturt Sabres
Men (Saturday 7:30pm) – The Nest
Results this season
Forestville Eagles 78 (Rathjen 22, Hulland, Mays 14, Machar 11, Doyle 10) defeated by Sturt Sabres 81 (Forbes, Rasmussen 21, Brennan, Nash 11, Smith 8)
Sturt Sabres 84 (Forbes 23, Rasmussen 16, Rigoni 14, Meakes, Smith 9) defeated by Forestville Eagles 90 (Mays 21, Doyle, Rathjen 19, Rios 11, Machar, Hulland 8)
Matchups that matter
Adam Doyle vs Jordan Forbes
The salivating matchup between two of the elite guards of the competition who drive their teams will be worth the price of admission. In the yellow corner we have Doyle as #3 in the league for assists (7.4), #9 for steals (2.1) and #18 for points (16.5) and when it comes to the crunch #1 in the league for free throws made with 91 percent! On the other side in the blue corner is the former Salem University Tiger in Forbes who’s been close to a triple each contest as #4 in assists (6.3), #8 in rebounds (8.9), #10 in points (19.6) and #11 in steals (1.8). These two are likely to break even with each other but Forbes has shown how good he can be but Doyle is a hardened finals campaigner at the top level and may just get the nudge in this one.
Greg Mays vs Jacob Rigoni
Mays has been utilised to perfection this year additionally he is in close to career best form right at this very minute. His last three games he’s averaging 33 points and six rebounds per game but shooting it at 75 percent from the field!!! Rigoni equally has been in high quality form averaging 20 points and 10 rebounds in his last four games at 52.6 percent!!! Both are likely to see time one each other given the malleability of the lineups and we want to see them go head-to-head to see who can hold their stat lines for their teams benefits.
Owen Hulland vs Hayden Meakes
The former Adelaide 36ers development player Hulland has been one of the handiest sixth men of the year accepting the role after sitting out last season from the “all-star-spangled” lineup. Producing 8.73 points and 5.71 rebounds per game – Hulland has also notched six double figures scores from there plus a double double. The Sabres have their own sixth man this year in Meakes who has clocked himself just the 6.25 points and 2.25 rebounds but has scored nine or more points on three occasions.
Key Statistics
The Eagles have had their offensive ability slashed in losses including one to the Sabres through denying ball movement (-4 in assists), denied deep paint touches for scores as well as the wing triples and left corner. Adam Doyle had just one assist last time they played after averaging 5.8 per game in all their wins to that point. The Sabres continue to be one of the best defensive teams of 2023 averaging 72.2 points in their wins but when they lose concede 88.2 points per game.
The Central Closer
Both these teams number two and three in many categories are very even as both games have shown but the area of advantage is the inside presence where you just think Machar and Mays might have it over Brennan and Smith in terms of experience and ability but the Sabres have found a way to go toe-to-toe – the home court might be just enough and the pain of last year’s finals exit still burning to see the Eagles through to a matchup with the Bearcats.
COD Prediction: Eagles by 4 points
Elimination Final
South Adelaide Panthers vs Woodville Warriors
Men (Saturday 7:00pm) – The Jungle
Results this season
Woodville Warriors 74 (McGee, Stepney 20, Ficken 8) defeated by South Adelaide Panthers 93 (Hoppo 18, Johnson 17, Johns 16, Barton 15, McVeigh, Starling 10)
South Adelaide Panthers 76 (D Johnson 23, Starling 21, Johns 11) defeated by Woodville Warriors 79 (Meldrum 20, Stepney, Janssen 15, Jackson 11, A Maiorana 9)
Matchups that matter
Alex Starling vs Jawan Stepney
Both Starling and Stepney are key matchwinners for their teams in have surprisingly for their positions on the floor guarded each other. Starling can guard one to five on the floor and was a part of the stunting hard shows on Stepney on the first and second possessions he had which in the first quarter the Warriors took advantage from with their outside shooting of four of four. Stepney finds ways to lift himself into games and if the Warriors are to win he has to be the main man again.
Daniel Johnson vs Riley Meldrum
DJ remains the most influential player in this men’s finals series as the Panthers go through but tonight is one of his tougher matchups with the flexible and engine room of the Warriors in Meldrum. Johnson was accounted for by the very team he’s playing for tonight four times last season as noted throughout the year, but he hasn’t been stopped fully by anyone else this season. Meldrum is in perfect form right now and raised up when he needed to – his last fours weeks have been outstanding averaging 16 per game which is +6 on his season. It’s a match winning matchup that could determine the difference between the two sides.
Jarryd Hoppo vs Joe Jackson
The third matchup to look at involves x-factors that can really spark their team. Hoppo was very good against the Warriors on ANZAC day before going down with injury and Jackson important in last week’s regular season thriller. Watch for these two as to their impact and who can steer their team in the right direction.
Key Statistics
Panthers are still the #1 offensive rebounding team in the league in the Panthers versus the sharp shooting efficiency of the Warriors averaging 51 percent in their wins – as stated last week the last two times they’ve met the Warriors shot sub 36 percent and lost including last year’s decider. Last week they hit 37 percent and won – it’s one percent but it tells you a lot about how close that number from the field is.
The Central Closer
This is a hard one to call as I’m sure Ninnis would’ve let the Panthers know in uncertain terms where they needed to tidy up. The Warriors have been up and down all season but maybe they are coming good at the right time. I feel consistency is key here and the Panthers may just get this one to progress but don’t be surprised if the Warriors back up from last week to knock out their 2022 Grand Final opponents for revenge…
COD Prediction: Panthers by 3 points
We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in First Round of the finals between the Forestville Eagles Men and the Sturt Sabres Men on Kayo and Kayo Freebies this weekend.
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