Photo Credit – As supplied by NBL1
5-Minute Read
Men’s Grand Final Preview: South Adelaide Panthers vs Forestville Eagles
When: 8:00pm (ACST), Saturday August 10
Where: Adelaide 36ers Arena, Findon
Broadcast: Kayo Freebies, http://www.nbl1.com.au
The Last Time
QSF: SOUTH ADELAIDE PANTHERS 88 (Smith 31, Starling 23, Ellison 10) defeated FORESTVILLE EAGLES 73 (Mays 21, Ipassou 16, Doyle, Johnson 12)
How they got here
The Forestville Eagles may have been beaten twice in the regular season by the Sturt Sabres but they rose to another level as they closed out the win to move to the semi-final 85-106 at the Cave of Springbank.
The Eagles immediately committed to stifling the ball movement of the Sabres after they were torched by the Sabres with 24 assists in both games with the isolated ball play of the Sabres forcing limited scoring opportunities. Uche Dibiamaka took advantage with 10 opening quarter points and along with Brad Rathjen gave the Eagles a 14 point lead. The Eagles kept the Sabres at wing length thanks to a final few minutes of the second term of 0-7 but triples to the Sabres kept things interesting 51-58 at the main break.
Both teams struggled to find points at the start of the third as both increased their defensive intensity. The Eagles again found multiple scores in a row to go ahead 67-74 with one to play. Sturt made an early triple in the fourth to bring it back to 70-76 but the Eagles took over from there as they reeled off a 9-1 run through Adam Doyle with some heads up plays. Back to back triples from Dibiamaka took it out to game high 16 points at 80-96 and that was it from there as the Eagles put themselves into the semi-final against the Panthers.
The semi featured an out of the blocks performance from the “mid-range marvel” himself in Jeremy Smith and the Woollacott Medallist Starling steered the South Adelaide Panthers to their first grand final appearance since 2022 with a dismantling of the Forestville Eagles 88-73 at the Jungle. The packed out Mitchell Park venue was loud and raucous but for the home side it wasn’t just the two stars that played the star roles in the evening.
Smith opened the match with a basket with him and Starling pounding the free throw line to create multiple and1 opportunities and put the Eagles under pressure defensively. Opening up a 10-2 lead the Eagles were struggling to find answers till the Eagles brought it back to 23-18 thanks to Mays inside finishing, weathering the early South storm after one.
Fiston Ipassou produced some his best with a string of scores (12 points in the term) and with Dibaimaka (seven for the quarter) starting to find space made some tough finishes to give the Eagles the lead 29-30 but Starling’s steal on the eve of halftime and upstairs finish on the rim brought it back to 44-47 at the half. It felt as though the Panthers were lucky to be as close as they were with the Eagles.
Starling began the third with and1 but the Eagles quickly broke away and looked all of a sudden to have the game in their grasp 50-59. Kubank turned to a pair of spark plugs in Jarryd Hoppo and Ricardo Martin (seven points and rebounds) who changed the energy and the flow in the building with Martin active at the defensive end on the glass and Hoppo with some quick points including the big triple to bring the Jungle to its feet. Starling put more finishing touches on an 8-0 run on the rim to bring it back to 58-60 and the Eagles quickly found themselves in a massive hole. That translated to a 14-1 run across five minutes which proved to be match-telling.
Starling’s tough mid range jumper had Andy Simons seeing enough with timeout to the Eagles at 75-67. It didn’t get much better from there for the away side with Smith an outrageous and1 triple with the four point play completed with the game good as done. Smith’s mid-range and Kubank’s easy reverse find with no defender underneath the hoop sealing the Panthers nineteenth grand final appearance in the history of the league. The Eagles would meet their quarter final opponents the Sabres once again after they upset the West Adelaide Bearcats to dump last year’s champions out of the race.
An elite opening term from veteran NBL star Daniel Johnson and some powerful points from the pine flew the Eagles back into the decider for a shot at redemption – spinning the Sabres out of the finals 91-84 at the Nest. From the very first tip – the 417 game NBL veteran was locked in aggressively on the glass at both ends of the floor, flying for deflections and making plays echoing the form for the 36ers in the almost successful 2017-18 season.
Keeping pace were a pack of Sabres with the Eagles suffering another early finals blow with Brad Rathjen already coming off an ankle the previous week – another former NBL player in Adam Doyle suffered what appeared to be a leg issue which saw him subbed out 4:19 into the game. He never returned, replaced by back up guard Jordan Wilson. DJ however stepped up in his absence and a well contained Greg Mays to have the Eagles in front after the first 21-18.
Ipassou who came in for a tied down Diabamaka continued a rich vein of form with the recently announced 36ers DP peeling off eight straight points with two triples. DJ’s turnaround trademark jumper had it out to 47-30 with Wilson with one of the quarters of his career (nine points, three assists and rebounds in the first half) and Hulland pulling out a triple putting the Eagles into a strong position 54-34 at the half- the 33-16 term scarring on the Sabres.
It needed an unbelievable quarter from the Sabres to get back in the contest and they magically produced it from the first buzzer after halftime – a 9-26 quarter keeping the Sabres finals hopes alive. Both teams were beginning to deal with foul trouble drawing resources from each bench. DJ hit his first triple of the evening at a timely moment with Sam Daly returning the favour to level it at 70-72 then punishing them again with a hook shot inside. Mays with the and1 reverse layup then the one on one to the rim made it 77-72 with the Eagles 2-3 zone causing issues for the Sabres. Ipassou then ignited with a triple then forced his way to the free throw line – looking to haul the homeside across the line. With some key free throws then a finish on the rim. DJ’s final free throws sealed the road to redemption next week in the Grand Final.
Championship History
Two years ago the Panthers broke a 25 year drought to claim their first championship since 1997. In their long history they have made eighteen Grand Finals including a string of seven in a row from 1963-1973. That was the era of the great Michael Ah-Matt, Dean Whitford, Scott Davie and starting centre Bruce Ninnis. They won five of those while the Panthers of the late 80s and 90s made eight winning five of them through stars Mark Davis, Scott Ninnis, Craig Adams, Darren Breeding, Matt Reece and Ron Nunnelly. After Ninnis added a title for the Panthers as it’s previous coach now Graham Kubank has the opportunity to do so – by adding title number twelve to the cabinet at Mitchell Park.
The Eagles have a rich history of the men’s making and winning the deciding match. They’ve been in 16 Grand Finals winning seven of them – if you include West Torrens it’s eight of 21 since 1958. In 2019, The Eagle’s won their largest Grand Final victory with a 27-point victory over the Mt Gambier Pioneers, surpassing their usual eight-point winning margin. Adam Doyle has been a huge part of their titles, having been part of the 2011, 2012, and 2013 but missed 2019 playing in the NBL1 South. As we know the Eagles went down to the West Adelaide Bearcats 95-106 and are looking for redemption this Saturday night.
This is the first time the two teams have met in the decider since the years of 1989 and 1990 which included an epic high scoring overtime thriller 111-107 and a tight six point win to the Panthers 94-88. Mark Davis had an enormous night of 30 and 20 plus in points and rebounds as Don Shipway’s group held on in the final five minutes to claim back to back titles. The Panthers also demolished them in the 1987 Grand Final 104-85 and come into this one holding an all-time grand final record of 3-0.
The Numbers
– The Panthers are surprisingly not in any of the top two of any general category this season except for one in defensive rating at 98.4 – the Eagles are first with 97.9 meaning we have the top two ranked defensive teams facing off in the decider.
– In saying that the Panthers are the #1 team defensively in conceding points only giving up 82.1 per game and also giving up the least points in the paint with 37.2, offensive rebounds and therefore second chance points with 7.8.
– The Eagles of course have been #1 in points per game this season and the only team to average 100 points per game – they’ve broken that barrier nine times but only once against one of this year’s finalists of course in their smoldering quarter final.
– They are also the #1 team for points in the paint (56.4), second chance points (14.4), assists with 22.9 and blocks per game with 4.4.
– Alex Starling is #2 for scoring the league this season with 23.17 points per game as well as rebounding with 11.89 and #1 in steals.
– Despite not needing to dish as many in wins for the Eagles this year – Adam Doyle is #1 in the league for assists once again this year and #3 in steals with 2.42 per game.
The Money Men
It’s been ten years since he graced the Grand Final stage at the Adelaide 36ers Arena and who could forget his incredible performance for the Woodville Warriors in the 2014 Grand Final. Alex Starling the three time Woollacott medallist is as reliable as you can get, hurting you anyway he can on the court and on the boxscore. Starling in every major match has shown a better version of himself – in 2014 he grabbed MVP finishing the night with 36 points and six rebounds then two years ago did the same with 31 points at 62 percent and 18 rebounds. A third is very much on the cards and would be a fitting collection of the set of Woollacott Medal, MVP and a fourth Championship.
The timing was perfect for the best of Daniel Johnson for the Eagles – winding back the clock to his Adelaide 36ers 2017-18 form. DJ was superb at both ends of the floor and was hungry to eclipse some questionable form but you never can keep down the DJ from striking up that pose off his turnaround jumper. The opportunity now is for him to erase some past finals at the Adelaide 36ers Arena – DJ has had some interesting matches including heartbreak in 2013 to Forestville for the Bearcats, the Sabres in 2016 and for the Eagles in 2018. This is his time to change the course of his grand final history and his teams – and we know he can…
The Reliable Men
Just looking at the numbers around the Panthers defence – you know exactly what you are going to get from “agent” Codey Ellison – who has a licence to lockdown at that end of the floor. He’s been superb this year fully engaged in Kubank’s schemes leading the Panthers to those #1 defensive statistics in 2024.
It’s been another exceptional year for the all star five selection in Greg Mays with another consistent season under the belt. With 19.29 points and 7.43 rebounds per game, he had double figures in ten matches in a row till what you think was an outlier last week. The form before that in the last three matches against Bearcats, Sabres then Panthers yielded 21 points and eight rebounds per game so you’d think that’s the more likely outcome – but his battle with either Ellison or Starling will be vital to the Eagles chances.
The X-Factors
These are two of the most exciting prospects for this match but for different reasons that what we traditionally know them as. First is Jarryd Hoppo who along with Ricardo Martin changed the energy and defensive intensity in the building the last time they met in their semi-final at the Jungle. He’s the kind of cat that can swing the momentum with his ability to hit the outside shot and may for enough minutes in a game produce something special – this role is made for him.
SA Shotclock co-host Kerry Waller beat us all to this one including myself who has been sleeping on Fiston Ipassou and how he could change this match. If there were any concerns the 36ers DP could rise to the level they have been alleviated recently with two match winning contributions of 16 and 22 in his past two matches. He came in for the “Rat” in Brad Rathjen then covered the absence offensively of Doyle and Mays in the previous outing. It’s a risk and reward kind of stuff but he might just pull one more out that gets you that championship by the finish of this one.
So who claims the championship?
The opening five minutes will tell us much about the lessons learnt by both sides – last time it was Jeremy Smith burying himself into the scoreboard early and attacking the Eagle’s guards right off the tip. You’d think the Eagles will be ready for that this time and try and push them off to the sides a little.
The Eagles were dismantled defensively the last time they met including a 14-1 run to the Panthers to finish with just 24 points in the second half – I don’t think this will happen again but the Eagles will need vital contributions from Ipassou, Jordan Wilson and Owen Hulland if it does.
The match rests on the superstars in Alex Starling, Jeremy Smith, Daniel Johnson and Uche Dibiamaka who will be hungry to lift after two performances he’d like to reverse back. If you have to find a tie-breaker it’s at the defensive end and in big games this season when they’ve needed to led by Starling the Panthers have done just that – I’ve backed them all year so I’ll stick with that and think they can give Nationals a shakeup as well.
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