Category: NBL1

Lual Diing could guide the Central District Lions to an epic frantic finish in the NBL1 Central Mens final five seedings  – Photo By NBL1/CS Photographics

Note: With fixtures being redrafted, the order of games is subject to change

Forestville Eagles (2^nd)

Record – 10 wins/5 losses, 111% (15 Games played)

Run Home: Panthers (Home), Bearcats (Away), Tigers (Home)

Splits: Panthers (24 points ahead), Bearcats (3 points ahead), Tigers (16 points ahead)

Prediction: The Eagles will be looking to swiftly secure the second spot on the table by dispatching the Panthers and Bearcats and with mostly favourable splits ahead, it is looking highly likely they will do so finishing with 13 wins.

ESPN Prediction: 2^nd    

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Southern Tigers (3^rd)

Record – 9 wins/6 losses, 102% (15 Games played)

Run Home: Rockets (Away), Warriors (Home), Eagles (Away)

Splits: Rockets (4 points ahead), Warriors (23 points ahead), Eagles (16 points behind)

Prediction: The fitness of the “Truth” Cameron Coleman will be key and with an extra week off the surprise packet of the 2021 season has roared into contention. It’s a must win against the Rockets in this set as that would potentially set up a 10 plus win finish and with their run to finish the season setup a top three finish and a solid season for the Morphett Vale club. However I think the Rockets will get them and they’ll sneak into fifth based on their split with the Lions.      

ESPN Prediction: 5^th

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Norwood Flames (4^th)

Record – 8 wins/6 losses, 101% (14 Games played)

Run Home: Sabres (Away), Bearcats (Home), Lions (Home), Rockets (Home)

Splits: Sabres (20 points behind), Bearcats (7 points behind), Lions (10 points ahead), Rockets (18 points behind)

Prediction: With four games left the Flames destiny is mostly in their hands. They play three contenders back-to-back but have the split advantage over all except the Rockets which they would need to make some significant ground up against an NBL star studded side. If they can somehow pinch the Sabres game in an upset then it could be the difference if they go 2-1 or 1-2 through the final three. I do feel however that they may only win one more and finish just outside the top five by the barest of margins.    

ESPN Prediction: 6^th

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North Adelaide Rockets (5^th)

Record – 8 wins/7 losses, 101% (15 Games played)

Run Home: Tigers (Home), Mavericks (Away), Flames (Away)

Splits: Tigers (4 points behind), Mavericks (4 points ahead), Flames (18 points ahead)

Prediction: If I’m any of the finals contenders, I want the Rockets run right now. The splits are favourable and should be at full strength for the rest of the season. They should get the Tigers at home and the Mavs away setting up a fiery away clash with the Flames in the final rounds. 11 wins would grab them third place and that makes them a dangerous contender for the finals for the remaining teams.  

ESPN Prediction: 3^rd

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South Adelaide Panthers (6^th)

Record – 7 wins/8 losses, 100% (15 Games played)

Run Home: Eagles (Away), Sabres (Home), Lions (Away)

Splits: Eagles (24 points behind), Sabres (20 points behind), Lions (3 points ahead)

Prediction: Those splits really hurt the Panthers chances of finishing top five and with Alex Starling unlikely to play the rest of 2021; South are looking down the barrel of some tough matches to finish now. Even winning all three (including upsetting the top two) I feel 10 wins won’t be quite enough to edge into the final five with those splits. They’ll need Flames and Rockets to finish on 9 wins somehow to get into the 5^th spot and the Mavs to cause some upsets and that seems with the schedule highly unlikely unfortunately for the white and blue.

ESPN Prediction: 8^th

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Central Districts Lions (7^th)

Record – 7 wins/8 losses, 99% (15 Games played)

Run Home: Mavericks (Home), Flames (Away), Panthers (Home)

Splits: Mavericks (22 points ahead), Flames (10 points behind), Panthers (3 points behind)

Prediction: They have left their run late but they could come home with a flurry, but it will all depend on that game against the Flames where they must win by 11 points plus to be any chance of grabbing a top five position. It would be an incredible comeback from a team locked into the bottom five majority of the season but they have shown they can produce when its needed and would not only be a huge boost for the club but also the far north of Adelaide community. I sense they can win all three, get the margins, lift percentage, and climb into fourth spot in an unpredictable finish.  

ESPN Prediction: 4th

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West Adelaide Bearcats (8^th)

Record – 6 wins/8 losses, 102% (14 Games played)

Run Home: Woodville (Away), Flames (Away), Eagles (Home), Sabres (Away)

Splits: Warriors (12 points ahead), Flames (5 points ahead), Eagles (1 point behind), Sabres (5 points behind)

Prediction: The thing that’s going for the Bearcats is that the splits they have are very manageable however even with that unless Earnest Ross produces some massive triple doubles I can’t see them winning enough in this tough run to get over the 9 win threshold and see the teams ahead lose the games they need to progress further into the final five.  

ESPN Prediction: 9^th

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Woodville Warriors (9^th)

Record – 6 wins/9 losses, 100% (15 Games played)

Run Home: Bearcats (Home), Tigers (Away), Mavericks (Home)

Splits: Warriors (12 points behind), Tigers (23 points behind), Mavericks (36 points ahead)

Prediction: If Julian Jacobs playsthey should win two of the final three and finish a little higher than where they are situated but similar to the Bearcats can’t see even 9 wins being enough to sneak into the final five. In such a tight season the Warriors will rue their chances to win some games when they were at their peak at different times throughout the season.

ESPN Prediction: 7^th

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Final Placing Predictions (Considering how tight it is and to keep track)

• Sturt Sabres 16-2
• Forestville Eagles 13-5
• North Adelaide Rockets 11-7
• Central Districts Lions 10-8 (Lions with split by 14 points)
• Southern Tigers 10-8 (Lions with split by 14 points)

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• Norwood Flames 9-9
• Woodville Warriors 8-10
• South Adelaide Panthers 7-11
• West Adelaide Bearcats 6-12
• Eastern Mavericks 0-18

Written by Tristan Prentice  

Former WNBL and current South Adelaide Panther Olivia Thompson will have a big say on where her team finishes in the home run – Photo By NBL1/Emma Hoppo Photography

2-Min Read

Note: With fixtures being redrafted, the order of games is subject to change

South Adelaide Panthers (3^rd)

Record – 11 wins/4 losses, 117% (15 Games played)

Run Home: Eagles (Away), Sabres (Home), Lions (Away)

Splits: Eagles (16 points ahead), Sabres (14 points behind), Lions (73 points ahead)

Prediction: The Panthers are in the box seat to finish with at least 12 wins and lock away third spot and if it gets down to a fight with the Eagles on the ladder they would need to drop their game at the Nest by 17 points for it to be a disaster even if they only beat the Lions in the final round. Likely hood is they fancy themselves against the Sturt Sabres already securing their finals berth with their game style and win two of these three games and secure a podium finish.

ESPN Prediction: 3rd   

Forestville Eagles (4^th)

Record – 10 wins/5 losses, 115% (15 Games played)

Run Home: Panthers (Home), Bearcats (Away), Tigers (Home)

Splits: Panthers (16 points behind), Bearcats (1 point ahead), Tigers (1 point ahead)

Prediction: The game against the Panthers is key as it could setup a 3-0 finish for the Eagles even with the top of the table Southern in a non-table position shifter game for them. The splits is the most interesting as they have to make up 17 points on the Eagles and to make sure the Bearcats don’t sneak up on them from behind secure at least a win against them. Even if they get the win against the Panthers and grabbed all three wins, I can’t see them getting to 13 wins and knocking off the Panthers ahead of them which means they’ll most likely land on the next rung down the ladder    

ESPN Prediction: 4^th

North Adelaide Rockets (5^th)

Record – 8 wins/7 losses, 114% (15 Games played)

Run Home: Tigers (Home), Mavericks (Away), Flames (Home)

Splits: Tigers (7 points behind), Mavericks (21 points ahead), Flames (35 points ahead)

Prediction: This is a tough run for the Rockets with the Tigers, in-form Eastern Mavericks and then what looms as a likely early elimination final against the Norwood Flames. The advantage is that the Flames need to win by 36 points to grab the head-to-head so if they can mitigate that, they can sneak into the fifth spot but think with a loss to the Flames in the run home will finish just short of 10 wins and the finals by one spot.

ESPN Prediction: 6th

Norwood Flames (6^th)

Record – 8 wins/7 losses, 99% (14 Games played)

Run Home: Sabres (Away), Bearcats (Home), Lions (Home), Rockets (Away)

Splits: Sabres (37 points behind), Bearcats (5 points behind), Lions (54 points ahead) Rockets (35 points behind)

Prediction: The Flames are the most intriguing of the finals contenders they could go anywhere between 4-0 or 0-4 as their record suggests. The struggle is that they have 99 percent on the board and are about 10 percent behind the contenders but could make that up in their games against the Bearcats and the Lions. The advantage is they still have an extra game compared to their opponents so they are much higher than their ladder position suggests. I reckon they’ll grab 10 wins and a thrilling win against the Rockets to seal the fifth spot in the final five likely on the back of some outstanding hoops from Ally Wilson.

ESPN Prediction: 5th

West Adelaide Bearcats (7^th)

Record – 6 wins/8 losses, 111% (14 Games played)

Run Home: Warriors (Away), Flames (Away), Eagles (Home), Sabres (Away)

Splits: Warriors (41 points ahead), Flames (5 points ahead), Eagles (1 point behind), Sabres (34 points behind)

Prediction: There is still “a chance” for the Bearcats with still four games left but they will rely on the Eagles, Flames and Rockets losing a host of remaining games and the Flames beating the Rockets in the run home by a small margin. There is also the small matter of them winning all three of their final games with the Sturt Sabres the toughest of the set ahead. With significantly simpler equations for the competing teams, it just seems too much has to go the Bearcats way for them to get in.  

ESPN Prediction: 7th

Written by Tristan Prentice  

Julian Jacobs has been a revelation in the NBL1 Mens league this season – Photo by All-Star Photos/Kelly Barnes

We must stop underestimating the Sturt Sabres

No imports, no Adelaide 36ers in-coming recruits (that we know of) and lost Alex Mudronja to South Adelaide but as usual no worries for the 6-0 top of the table Sabres. Paul Rigoni’s side is absolutely clicking like their female counterparts on all cylinders. Certainly, the addition of Sam Daly and young gun Keanu Rasmussen has been impactful but the gelling of the core in Joel Spear, Jack Turnbull, Tom Goodall, Nick Fassos and Ben Griscti particularly has been evident game to game. Its clear the Sabres have no need for an imports when the chemistry is flowing double blue.

Whitmore has got Warriors working for each other

While the Warriors recruiting has been top shelf for the inaugural NBL1 season with some of the other teams having players that have been together and played in the league for multiple years all gelled, my chief concern was would this group gel with the new import additions in time to make a finals run? Well that concern has been well and truly blown out of the water, you have to hand it to coach Scott Whitmore who has not only recruited the import of the season in Julian Jacobs that has slid into the Warriors jigsaw puzzle and fitted but both with Joe Jackson filling his output to a tee. I have got no doubt now with the line-up they have that the Warriors will now be a lock for the top five but where they finish is going to come down to how they play against their fellow contenders currently 1-2 against them but have most of the current bottom ranked teams in the next month.

Jamie Petty has finally got the right combination, how will Mud and Hulland fit though?

Putting some of the stars in cotton wool late in the Adelaide Basketball Challenge 2020 was a calculated move by the head coach of the South Adelaide Panthers and its paying dividends. The group sit at 4-2 having pulled off some solid road wins with plenty of the mainstays from the last few years in incredible form like Kristian Ciabattoni, Codey Ellison and Todd Davies. There are of course still two major pieces to add to the Panthers in Adelaide 36ers recruits Alex Mudronja and Owen Hulland who are likely to see more court time with their NBL side the last few weeks of their season due to couple of the star sixers shutting their season down. The role players have complemented Alex Starling so well while not worried I do wonder if bringing in these two will disrupt some of the chemistry that’s been created by these players who are playing at a level above where its expected. I will be watching this team with interest.   

Cameron Coleman is bringing “the truth” weekly

The Southern Tigers are sitting much higher than my power rankings suggested prior to the season, a big reason for that is the recruitment from NSW Waratah League of Cameron Coleman. Coleman is a genuine threat in the league averaging 20.4 points at 52.6 percent and 6 rebounds per game and is forming a nice connection with fellow big Koop McCalop. He is the reason that coach David Morrell’s Tigers are sitting much higher than initially predicted.       

The Forestville Eagles five is elite but what about the rest?

The Eagles have the elite five that can win the whole thing once again but their record is 3-3 currently and while its definitely not panic stations, the Eagles are clearly not as stacked as last season. Elite guard Adam Doyle was replaced by Lions Isaac Auteur and they lost Christian Artuticho, Zac Camerlengo to other clubs so the depth Andrew Simons could call upon is not there so the rotations have shortened significantly. So if the stars are quelled as they have been marginally enough in their losses, where does the bench impact come from? A question still to be answered in the coming month.     

Ross is the boss and Bryan is waiting for opposition defenders

If you are a basketball fan, a night out watching Earnest Ross and Bryan Michaels go to work is worth your hard earned and they are putting on a show regardless of results. Both former NBL Perth Wildcats are averaging 22.8 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.7 steals and 20 points, 3.83 rebounds, 3.16 assists and 1.16 steals respectively. These two are so fun to watch in our league and show exactly why the NBL1 branding has been a boost for the now defunct SA Premier League model.    

The Flames finals hopes still hinge on CJ and Green Dunking Machine

If the Norwood Flames are to feature in the post season, then they will still need to ride the eliteness of star CJ Turnage and the powerful impact of 6’10 centre Anthony Green. Green has been a guaranteed highlight reel each week but also provides some solid numbers at both ends of the floor averaging 10.6 points, 7.16 rebounds and some seriously good rim protection per game. Turnage has turned it up another level this season and like Taylor Ortlepp for the Rockets women’s team is a genuine match winner off his own hand as proved against the Eagles and the Panthers this season. Turnage is averaging 28.66 points with no less than 21 points per game, 7.83 rebounds and 3.83 assists and hitting one out of every two shots consistently compared to his ABC numbers last season of 25.73 points with no less than 14 points per game. If the Adelaide 36ers were looking for a local import to fill a third spot on their roster, Turnage would not be a bad option coming off the bench in NBL 2021/2022 you feel.   

They have the athleticism and ability, but Atkins Lions haven’t quite found their winning formula… yet

Oh man the Lions are also fun to watch like the Bearcats and an enthusiastic team to boot but I’m sure the patches in games where some of the decisions Matt Atkin’s players make would be driving him up the wall. Often the Lions have led games at half-time but have fallen away as the game has gone on but its clearly not a fitness issue but a gelling and understanding the process he wants to run from the outside looking in. Every game the Lions have been within 12 odd points except for the blowout on double header weekend against the Warriors and the Sabres. They do have a good run coming up with the Mavs, Flames (at the Den), Panthers then Bearcats (at the Den) which will tell us much about if these issues can be solved.   

How long can the Rockets bleed losses hanging on for Sunday and Jack to start?

Head Coach Dean Nyberg’s poker hand is on the table right now this early in the season knowing that the aces in the pack are still a little distance away in Adelaide 36ers Sunday Dech and Jack McVeigh. The chips are bleeding though at 1-5 with the next month being crucial. They have a month of winnable games but that has also been compounded with the high likely hood now that short term recruit Jack Purchase will not be available due to being re-activated by the Adelaide 36ers. They need 3 of the next 4 to set themselves up for the second half of the season, any less and considerably the North Adelaide Rockets may fold this season before even able to play the aces in the pack.    

Who’s the next “wise” player up to the plate for the “Rojo” Mavs?

The Mavs in theory are a well-balanced team and any other season probably would be up around the mid-table but this is the NBL1 model now and you gotta bring the star power. The Mavs don’t have that but a very quiet signing for Michael “Rojo” Rogers team last week might turn that around. Import William Wise the third is back and by the looks of the roster last week potentially Nathaniel Koko’s teammate at the Port City Power may be injured or have been released in Paul Aleer. The 6’9 forward/centre when he last played for the Mavs averaged 19.9 points and 7.5 rebounds per game after some time in Romania with CSM Sighetu Marmatiei. Adding him saw him produce 19 points against the Bearcats in Round 6 but along with him, the Mavs will need potential role players Cohen Creeper and Lachlan Knibbs to step up to the next level.   

NBL1 Men’s have some of the countries elite showstopping dunkers

You only have to look at the top ten plays of the week across NBL1 to know we have some elite showstoppers in our league above the rim and my are they fire to watch. If its not Greg Mays, it is the Anthony Green, Alex Starling, Tom Goodall, Julian Jacobs, Koop McCalop, Bryan Michaels, Lual Diing, Manel Ayol and no doubt the incoming William Wise the third show. Get your popcorn as the sky show will continue as the season rolls along and that puts bums on seats when it comes to men’s basketball.    

Written by Tristan Prentice