A Common Thread - Jake Rios has been part of the Forestville Eagles Men's last three titles including 2013, 2019 and 2020's ABC Challenge - Picture by Tanya Fielding Photography (2013)
3-Minute Read
Round 13
Saturday 1/07/2023
Norwood Flames vs Woodville Warriors – (ARC – The Firedome)
Women (6:00pm)
LTTM: Woodville Warriors 74 (Watkinson 13, Fransson 12, Perkas 10, G Winter 9, E Winter 8) defeated by Norwood Flames 86 (Thompson 37, Wilson 17, Smith 14, Akuen 9)
Opening game of the night holds importance to both sides in different circumstances with the Flames keen to jump ahead of the teams below them on the ladder into a clear top three spot while the Warriors can play spoiler with the winner of another game this evening unfortunately closing any chance of a mathematical finish in the top five.
The Flames win against the Tigers last week was ultra impressive after running down a 31-point opening quarter. Ally Wilson and Jada Rice drove the takedown from the front with 24 points, 14 rebounds, 5 assists and 3 steals while Rice had her best game of the season amassing 14 points, 21 rebounds and two blocks. Sharna Thompson added 14 points to the scoring in the second half to finish with 20 points to add more pain to the Tiger wounds.
The Warriors had no answer last week for the Eastern Mavericks but in some ways its not surprising. Like a boxing match this team against the Flames last time, Bearcats, Tigers, Rockets landed big blows were in the games deep into the fourth, but I witnessed first-hand the inability to land that final blow and when the Mavericks got off to a start like they did last week – it’s understandable they couldn’t rally again. Now the pressure is off and they are a team you don’t want to play down the stretch as they challenge the rebound count (equal #2) and they do make you turn the ball over (#5).
The Flames however showed against the Tigers pressure they could exude their own and I think they’ll find a way to get this one done.
Key Stat – The Flames are still get torched in losses with 26.4 turnovers – and struggle to win possession minus three in steals per loss.
COD Prediction: Flames by 12 points
Men (7:45pm)
LTTM: Woodville Warriors 73 (Stepney 21, Jackson 14, Osborne 12, Meldrum 8) defeated Norwood Flames 71 (Stanwix 19, Nuangki, Lycett 14, Smith 11)
The Flames are sixth and the Warriors fifth – It’s another must win game with the split just two points between both and a spot potentially up for grabs in the top five still there for the taking by seasons end.
Trey McBride has been a key and his game last week against the Tigers sums up his play on return to Australia. It’s like he was in the passenger seat controlling his team and quietly put together a stat line of 20 points, six rebounds, five assists and steals to set everything up. I need to see more of Canadian college graduate and master of the tomahawk in Isaac Miller-Jose with his 13 points and 11 rebounds before I get too excited but as many have pointed out he’s got some qualities about him that exude NBL vibes potentially with some more big-time performances. Key with the Flames also being back in the final conversation is Jack Stanwix (18 points) and Moses Nuangki (17 points) consistently hitting the scoreboard – Nuangki’s become a firestarter off the bench for this team.
The Warriors Jawan Stepney remains the hope for the Warriors returning to the finals in 2023 and although the Mavericks pushed them hard again – the inclusion of David Humphries and Joe Jackson finding a bit of his previous season form has certainly helped their cause. Their destiny like many teams as I said on the Hoopsters NBL1 Central Basketball Show Wednesday is in their hands with this game a must win followed by clashes against other ladder climbers Forestville, Sturt and South Adelaide who will be eager to continue their winning ways.
This goes completely against the form line but I’m backing the Warriors into their system and grind and go approach – as I didn’t against the Rockets, and they reminded me they are only one piece away from a similar side to 2023’s Grand Final unit…
Key Stat – Defence is where this game is won with the Flames giving up +4 in points compared to their opponents but the Warriors give up 3-4 less points from turnovers and second chance points.
COD Prediction: Warriors by 4 points
Forestville Eagles vs West Adelaide Bearcats (Wayville – The Nest)
Women (8:00pm)
LTTM: West Adelaide Bearcats 81 (Aquino 22, Coleman 21, Simmons 11, Fejo 10) defeated Forestville Eagles 80 (Hines 20, Freer 19, Simons 15, Morello 8) in OT
The last time these two teams played is when the Eagles started to make their move under Georgia Crouch. Nearly stealing the win at the Bearcat Cave – the Eagles shot 10 of 17 in the fourth quarter to send the game to overtime. Apart from that they didn’t win many of the key categories. It sparked wins against the Rockets and the Panthers after a slip up against Southern then nearly stole it against Sturt last week. Statistically they lose most categories each week but only by a small margin which keeps them in games much more in recent times.
The Bearcats are 2-3 since their last meeting and triples continues to be their barometer as a unit nightly. In wins they are 30.2 percent from beyond but in losses they are 21.2 percent. Jasmin Fejo is also a key averaging 18.6 points in their wins but only 11 points in their losses. Fejo is also very good away from the home court averaging 17.3 points per game. Only Aquino and Coleman produce consistent numbers weekly, but this team is clearly missing the depth they had in 2022 with many loyal names gone from their roster in recent months like Langenbrinck, Lappin, Keeley and Alex Pearce.
The Eagles have that depth in their bench like the Brett’s, Marissa Hamilton or Alana Morello and their young core coming through – and I think they get it done on the home floor in this one but containing Fejo and Aquino are a must if they play.
Key Stat – The Eagles outside shooting makes them a bigger threat in their wins and close losses averaging seven makes per game.
COD Prediction: Eagles by 11 points
Men (6:15pm)
LTTM: West Adelaide Bearcats 100 (DeSantis 21, Olbrich 19, Roxburgh 18, Drmic 13, Spear 9) defeated Forestville Eagles 54 (Mays 11, Doyle 8)
The Eagles will have a big night plan with the 2013 championship side celebrating their anniversary of their title – with a former Sixer in Adam Gibson scoring 24 points against the club they toppled 81-73 in the decider.
You wonder if its all coming full circle for the Eagles a decade on with a lineup balanced and worthy of a shot at a top two finish. Greg Mays flew again last week as they grabbed an important split and jump ahead into second place by two wins. Mays accumulated 21 points and nine rebounds including nailing some game sealing free throws. I’m loving the work of Adam Doyle (19 points and five assists) and Brad Rathjen (19 points and five assists) who both hit seven of the Eagles eleven triples between them. Add to that the form of Malith Machar and the depth of Jordan Wilson, Isaac Jurecky, Stefan Gould, a former NBL DP in Owen Hulland – then not bad having a man who’s been around for over a decade in Jake Rios.
But awaiting them to spoil the celebrations are the Bearcats who hammered them the last time they met. They had no answer defensively to the 57 percent from the field, 39 percent from beyond the arc, 26 assists and 20 points from turnovers. They had no answer offensively being kept to 28 percent from the field and six percent from beyond the arc. The Bearcats were minus Drmic last week but Roxburgh filled the void with 16 points and four rebounds. Regardless of who’s out there – this one will be much closer between one and two on the ladder.
With a tougher run ahead for the Eagles they need this win to keep ahead of the pack…
Key Stat – Jake Rios is a key man in Eagles title contending sides – he’s been there for the last three titles against West Adelaide (2013), Mt Gambier (2019) and the ABC win over Sturt in 2020…
COD Prediction: Eagles by 3 points
North Adelaide Rockets vs South Adelaide Panthers – (Lights – The Launch Pad)
Women (6:30pm)
LTTM: South Adelaide Panthers 76 (DeFrancesco 14, Spencer 13, Johnson 11, Stewart 10, Hunter 8) defeated by North Adelaide Rockets 82 (Basham 31, Mansfield 19, Meyer 13)
Rockets in fifth versus the shaky South Adelaide Panthers in precarious fourth – It’s another must win game for two teams trying to secure their split with Rockets up by six points.
The Panthers again last week did what they needed to do against the Lions to get the win but perhaps the most important piece of last week was to get Darcy Rees dominant. She produced 16 points and 10 rebounds in clearly her best performance of the season against Imani Guy and could potentially get a hold of Tayla Corrigan and Erica Meyer if Hunter and Stewart can find their defensive nous again against “Bash-field”.
Basham and Mansfield continue to be the instigators of the Rockets rise up the ladder. Now they need two of the other four to lift their numbers slightly to really be a threat and I think it could be Jordyn Freer and Tayla Corrigan that could lift their sevenish points and sixish rebounds closer to double figures per game.
Both Dickel and Johnston having been playing the long game with survival of the fittest likely to win out – I think the Rockets have shown they are priming for the end game soon and will take out the win at home here.
Key Stat – The Panthers losses in 2023 continue to show glaring deficiency in scoring with 62.7 points at 33 percent but have corrected their rebounding per game with Rees inserted…
COD Prediction: Rockets by 10 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: South Adelaide Panthers 73 (McVeigh 22, Johnson 18, Ellison 12, Davies 10, Barton 9) defeated by North Adelaide Rockets 77 (Harrap 26, Aliir 15, McCalop 14, Watson 9, McDonald 8)
Only two wins separate fourth and seventh with the Rockets with a late run and win here holding the split against the Panthers.
For the Rockets an average of 91 is what opposition have crept up to against them since their double win that weekend which is a bit concerning for coach Mikey Rogers. They are still number three in the league for offensive production with 87.1 points per game. It continues to be driven by elevated from Akech Aliir and Riley Harrap but five players scoring double figures in their wins is the winning formula for the red and white. Akech Aliir and Riley Harrap are still average over 15 per game in game rating in wins while in losses its still less than ten.
Daniel Johnson’s 35 point and nine rebound return and Jarryd Hoppo’s final term of seven points to add 15 points and six rebounds off the pine steered the Panthers into the lead with minutes left. The Panthers 25-9 final term was typical of a champion team that doesn’t know how to say die and grabs crucial wins in recent seasons when it counts. When the pressure is thrown on this team – it responds accordingly which is why you don’t write this team off from the title whatsoever.
That’s why they’ll take out this one against the Rockets which should be a fun contest between Starling and McCalop again…
Key Stat – The Panthers offence again has dried up in its five losses this season with just the 72.4 points with alarmingly 22 percent from the three-point line.
COD Prediction: Panthers by 8 points
Central District Lions vs Eastern Mavericks – (Starplex – The Den)
LTTM: Eastern Mavericks 86 (Otto 27, Bradley 24, Levy 23) defeated Central District Lions 82 (Sears 29, De La Cerda 23, Guy 15)
Women (6:30pm)
The Mavs game last week it all came together with Tayla Levy played the game of her short career to help the Eastern Mavericks piece together all pieces of their puzzle. She levelled up for 35 points at 66 percent with four triples, 10 assists and six rebounds with Jannon Otto returning from a short injury lay-off with 20 points, seven rebounds and five assists and Olivia Bradley continuing her recent form with 19 points and six rebounds and two blocks.
The Lions vast improvement continues to be in their defence but their average of keeping teams to an average of 86.6 points means the opposition score has been a bit beyond their striking distance. They’ve given up 91.5 the last two rounds – a game against the Mavericks gives them the opportunity to grab their second win of the season. They are keeping teams to an average of 14 points less per game on their home floor meaning this one closes the gap more.
Each team has a big three right now with Otto, Levy and Bradley and De La Cerda, Sears and Guy but the breaking point between these teams is Peyton Taylor – if she can have a big game then the Mavs in slightly better form can take the win here…
Key Stat – Guy since her 24-point second half against the Sabres has scored no less than 13 points per game while De La Cerda has produced four 20 plus point games since that evening.
COD Prediction: Mavericks by 4 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: Eastern Mavericks 96 (Legan 30, Hemphill 24, Raneburg 17, Rentoy 9, Gur 8) defeated Central District Lions 73 (Jenkins 27, Manyang 13, Bol 10, Baker 9)
The Mavs are still hungry in 2023 to have an impact on the final ladder looking for their best finish in a decade – along with the Lions, the Rockets, Bearcats (potentially locked into top two) and Sabres await grabbing two of the last four at least would sign off a strong season for a team that’s been cellar dwelling for seasons. Dan Wray certainly has had the personnel on the floor to score the ball – and after a recent chat I know James Legan will belooking to finish the season with a flurry. Like his 30 points last time he likely could go off tonight against the Lions in a one-on-one with Branden Jenkins worth watching.
The Lions defensive numbers is the key indicator of their competitiveness as highlighted by Sapwell in 2023. Centrals are giving up 91.5 points per game but are also putting up 85.4 per game – bringing those numbers closer by seasons end is the key.
It’s another flip of the coin in this one – so I’ll take home court advantage being the difference just in this one.
Key Stat – Both teams leak significant points with over 90 per game – so if you enjoy scoring and highlights this one is worth a tune in…
COD Prediction: Lions by 5 points
Sturt Sabres vs Southern Tigers – (Springbank – The Cave) – Kayo Freebies Game of the Week
LTTM: Southern Tigers 53 (Yaeger 20, McKendrick 12, Stasinowsky 10) defeated by Sturt Sabres 85 (Brazel 22, N Mathews 10, Prosser 8)
Women (1:30pm)
It’s One versus Two in a Sunday blockbuster.
The Sabres on their heritage night clawed victory from the wings of the Forestville Eagles to avoid defeat again – making it 14 wins without a blemish but not without hiccups. Mikayla Williams is rolling her way to a Halls Medal win with another 22 points and 17 rebounds in a game where the margin went only beyond a couple of baskets. Every challenge that has been thrown at this Sabres lineup has been answered – but a big test looms today at the Cave. My educated guess is that there will be no Brazel given team-mates at the COE will not play any games till August now and will with her head to Spain on July 4.
Morgan Yaeger threatened along with the rest of the team to take out the Flames from the three-point arc as they rained in 13 triples for the game – this can be a tough cover for the Sabres. The Tigers would be stung by their loss to the Flames last week and with the Sabres secure for a finals spot might be able to take them out of their routine today. Last time they met it was the up-court pressure from the Sabres that got them as the Tigers gave up 24 turnovers and 12 points from them to go down by 11.
They will never get a better chance this season to reverse the previous result in the coming day – so I’m predicting the Tigers will end the Sabres run but maybe not for the worse for this team heading to the finals.
Key Stat – Both teams are the most miserly in the league by a long way holding their opponents to an average of 60-61 points per game.
COD Prediction: Tigers by 7 points
Men (3:15pm)
LTTM: Southern Tigers 80 (Thompson 19, Machar 14, Green 13, Logan 11, Dau 10) defeated by Sturt Sabres 90 (Rigoni 34, Rasmussen 19, Forbes 14, Daly 9)
It was only ten points the last time they met.
Paul Rigoni’s chargers however have been ruthless in their five wins over their opposition holding opponents to 73.1 points per game, 36.8 percent from the field and 22 percent from beyond the arc.
The Tigers second half of the season has been aimed at a couple of key areas according to some stats. The league average for offensive and defensive rating is 99.9 for both categories (points scored and conceded per 100 possessions) – The Tigers average 85.9 per 100 possessions – which is still about ten points behind the Mavericks and now Rockets. The Tigers then concede around 110 points per possession just ahead of the Mavs but the Lions have jumped ahead. The top four are still concededing around an average of 94 points so there is still work to get back that 16-point margin per 100 possessions is the key for the next half of the season.
A great story from Scott Freer’s Southern Tigers point of view though is another new starter for them in Jok Bulabek finished with a solid 15 points and nine rebounds getting his opportunity along with young players like Dickeson. The future if the Tigers can hold onto these players through their development years is bright.
Stranger things have happened on Sundays but you’d think with the importance of securing a win the Sabres will find a way to prevent any upsets from occurring.
Key Stat – The Sabres statistically are ranked third in multiple categories which aligns with their ladder position potentially by the end of the round.
COD Prediction: Sabres by 14 points
We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in Round 13 between the Sturt Sabres and the Southern Tigers on Kayo and Kayo Freebies Sunday.
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CROSS OVER DRIBBLE 