19-0, 10-0, 5-6 are just some of the numbers that could result out of this round of Women's finals in the NBL1 Central.
3-Minute Read
Qualifying Semi-Final
Sturt Sabres vs Norwood Flames
Women (Sunday 1:30pm) – The Cave
Results this season
Norwood Flames 55 (Thompson 22, Akuen 11, Kerridge 10) defeated by Sturt Sabres 88 (Williams 16, K Mathews, Z Walker-Roberts 9, Prosser 8)
Sturt Sabres 68 (Prosser 18, Brazel, Williams, N Mathews 14) defeated Norwood Flames 66 (Smith, Thompson 18, Rice 12, Akuen 10, Kerridge 8)
Matchups that matter
Tayla Brazel vs Ally Wilson
One of the saving graces for the Sabres is that Brazel will be in match conditioning with no weeks off after her Gems campaign recently concluded – Brazel returns as the defensive player of the year and has the biggest assignment to prove she deserves the crown. The Sabres have not dealt with Wilson at all this year – they can however anticipate that she’ll use her ability to get downhill which killed her defender last week at the Cage. The Sabres hope Brazel has enough petrol tickets to last the contest after playing nearly 35 plus minutes across all games in Spain.
Nicola Matthews vs Sharna Thompson
“We are winning this…” were the words of effect that echoed out of the Sabres timeout the last time they met – as described by Mathews on the Hoopsters NBL1 Central Basketball Show. Her hunger and desire to win from any position translates to results including being down 17 points with 3.5 minutes to go. Thompson has had a terrific season and played her roll very well stepping up when she’s needed to on the scoring front – also had a good season against the Sabres averaging 20 per game. She’ll help give the Flames a sneaky chance of an upset.
Mikayla Williams vs Jada Rice
Back-to-back Halls Medals for the first time since 2004 was well deserved for the superstar of our league Williams – the only thing missing is a couple of huge dominant performances in finals one of which will take her Sabres to the championship. The Flames absolutely will need a game that not only matches Williams from Rice but potentially usurps it. Both have a hesitancy or need to shoot from far away from the hoop. You would think both teams will employ the strategy of physically getting them as far away from the basket as possible. Whoever can prevent that territory goes a long way to winning this one.
Key Statistics
The Flames leading by 17 points in their last meeting had their game on toast – but it burnt to a crisp and this is how. In the final three and half minutes the Sabres were six assists, seven rebounds (four offensive), three steals with one turnover – it yielded 6/9 triples. The Flames were two rebounds, three turnovers, one steal which yielded 0/5 field goals. You couldn’t get a stark change in fortunes and the defensive pressure on glass and ball was amped up another level.
The Central Closer
Having watched all teams this season out of the ones remaining in season 2023 – the Flames I feel are the ones that can give the Sabres a red-hot run and break their unbeaten run. Historically on the women’s side the team coming in first place has won four out of the last five qualifying semi-finals (only the Tigers slipped up-to second place North in 2017) so you must back history in but it’s going to be a fascinating watch Sunday afternoon if the Flames can be the team that brings down this Sabres unit through and through…
COD Prediction: Sabres by 2 points
Elimination Final
Southern Tigers vs South Adelaide Panthers
Women (Saturday 6:30pm) – The Cage
Results this season
South Adelaide Panthers 62 (Spencer 18, Stewart 13, DeFrancesco 11, Forbes 8) defeated by Southern Tigers 79 (Martin 16, Hernandez 14, McKendrick 13, Stasinowsky 11, Hall 10)
Southern Tigers 87 (Hernandez 19, Stasinowsky, Yaeger 18, McKendrick 14) defeated South Adelaide Panthers 54 (Forbes 18, Spencer 14, DeFrancesco 8)
Matchups that matter
Morgan Yaeger vs Jordan Hunter
If Yaeger thought Kerridge was a handful last week then one of the best defenders at the guard position in Jordan Hunter awaits. Yaeger started loose last week with 14 in the first quarter but after quarter time was face guarded. I’m sure Matt Clarke and hist coaching staff would’ve gone over how to free her up with their players but she’ll need a bit of luck as well after getting two fouls in the space of two minutes before the Tigers bench could react. Hunter will need to hurt at the offensive end too having averaged 11 points in all of their last three wins.
Brittany Hernandez vs Holly Forbes
Both imports will hold the fortunes of their teams future in their hands especially when it comes to the glass. Both teams like most win when they control the glass and especially creating the second chance points off the offensive. Hernandez for the Tigers is ranked #11 (1.6 offensive) while Forbes is #6 (3.5 offensive) in rebounding for their teams – doesn’t that tell the story for both.
Bianca Stasinowsky vs Sam DeFrancesco
Scoring to support the stars is where the Tigers have dominated in recent times, but the Panthers DeFrancesco can be the difference to give them a chance to snap the streak. She had a handy 11 points last week but if the Panthers are to finally break this streak then they need a big haul from her. The same can be said for Stasinowsky who is capable of the same type of numbers. She’s averaged 14.5 against the Panthers in 2023 but last week came up with just 10 points in the Tigers loss to the Flames – if Yaeger is blanketed again she’ll need to hit the scorecard this one.
Key Statistics
Last week the Tigers shot under 30 percent from beyond the arc (27 percent) and turned the ball over 18 times – the need for ball security is key. The Panthers dominated the glass last weekend against the Rockets with Forbes, Ash Spencer and Darcy Rees amassing 61 rebounds including 22 offensive rebounds. They also managed to collect 17 second chance points off those 22 rebounds.
The Central Closer
No matter the form it has been all Tigers hear on in with a commanding nine game winning streak over their rivals. The last Panthers win over the Tigers was in 2016 (82-54) – it’s been a long long time since their last win over their rivals and there is a sense they can finally end the drought in the best time possible.
The first five minutes will be telling – I must go with the Tigers but lets see what Panthers show up in the first five minutes then you’ll be able to tell if an upset is on the cards.
COD Prediction: Tigers by 8 points
Qualifying Semi-Final
Forestville Eagles vs Sturt Sabres
Men (Sunday 2:00pm) – The Bearcat Cave
Results this season
West Adelaide Bearcats 100 (DeSantis 21, Olbrich 19, Roxburgh 18, Drmic 13, Spear 9) defeated Forestville Eagles 54 (Mays 11, Doyle 8)
Forestville Eagles 78 (Hulland 18, Machar 16, Rathjen 15, Doyle 14) defeated by West Adelaide Bearcats 82 (Olbrich 24, McCarron 21, DeSantis 18, Roxburgh 17)
Matchups that matter
Anthony Drmic vs Brad Rathjen
Two of the elite wing players of the league in 2023 matched up on each other in their earlier encounter and are set to go at it again. Drmic fresh of recent Tasmanian Jack jumper preseason sessions will be raring to go after his Northside Wizards couldn’t go all the way in NBL1 North 2022. Although he’s been playing on a off last few months, Drmic has been doing his thing averaging since June 24.4 points, 9.6 rebounds and 3.8 assists. The man tasked to stop him is likely Rathjen who’s been in some just short of triple double form himself. Since the start of the month Rathjen has been averaging 10.4 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists. The influence these two have in their matchup on each other goes a long way to deciding this one.
Nik DeSantis vs Jake Rios
Because of the names like McCarron, Drmic, Olbrich and Spear – DeSantis is the forgotten one of the dynamic opening five but surely Eagles fans in 2023 will not forget the impact he can have. He’s been one of the most damaging too with an average of 19.5 points at 60 percent. That’s what Rios needs to do back to the Bearcats – he’s been at 4.5 points at 27.5 percent. A lift from their scoring general is needed if they are to compete in this final.
Fraser Roxburgh vs Owen Hulland
The impact of young Roxburgh can’t be underestimated including an ever improving scorecard weekly. It’d be hard to go past him for sixth man of the year with only slipping once below double figures and after the first two game averaging 15.73 points and five rebounds at around 50 percent from the field. He’s first in after the starters and has hurt the Eagles once off the pine then as a starter. Hulland last week in his ten minutes of game time struggled for impact on the game matchup wise. This team presents good opportunity to be physical with the likes of Olbrich which he’ll need to be off the pine.
Key Statistics
The Bearcats formula has been simple with the NBL quality talent they’ve had on the floor. Their shooting efficiency is #1 in the league for field goals (50 percent), 2pt range (61 percent) and 3pt range (35 percent) dominating points in the paint (48.3), points from turnovers (11.7), steals (11) and several efficiency stats. The Eagles are just behind them in several categories but have the slight advantage statistically in the rebounding which they are +1.1 and assists as #1 in the league with 23.6 (2.7 ahead of West Adelaide).
The Central Closer
The record for the men is not as good as in the women’s when it comes to the first seeded team with three of five having gone straight through with two going out in straight sets. Finishing first in the men’s is no guarantee to get through as history has shown. I’ll take the Bearcats with a cautionary tale of teams with stacked amounts of players in them and not enough role players.
Just look at what happened to you opponents West in 2022…
COD Prediction: Bearcats by 5 points
Elimination Final
Sturt Sabres vs South Adelaide Panthers
Men (Sunday 3:30pm) – The Cave
Results this season
Sturt Sabres 64 (Forbes, Rigoni 19, Rasmussen 14) defeated by South Adelaide Panthers 76 (Starling 22, Hoppo 20, McVeigh 16, Johns 11)
South Adelaide Panthers 59 (Johnson 33, McVeigh 9) defeated by Sturt Sabres 87 (Forbes 30, Rasmussen, Rigoni 14, Brennan 11, Dowdell 10)
Matchups that matter
Jordan Forbes vs Alex Starling
Both the league coaches MVP and defensive player of the year is worth your Sunday afternoon admission fee – and yes it is likely they’ll go at each other. There’s not too much to touch on this matchup apart from Forbes has been a challenging matchup for the Panthers as noted in his average of 24.5 points – Starling didn’t play at the Jungle last time these teams met but after seeing him last night he’s raring to go as usual.
Jacob Rigoni vs Daniel Johnson
Rigoni rained in some big shots against the Eagles and plays a similar role to Daniel Johnson in the Panthers team. Both are a tough guard at the three-point line because of the extra arc and length. DJ probably has a few more tricks in his footwork and passing game then Rigoni but Jacob hits glass hard for the Sabres. Although they didn’t matchup the last time they met with Dowdell in the starters in recent weeks – I see both what they bring to the table matching up on each other. If they do it’ll be an intriguing matchup.
Sam Daly vs ???
Jake Burfitt on the Hoopsters NBL1 Basketball Show rightly pointed out the challenge the Panthers will have of guarding Daly. He’s the kind of player that would’ve been ideal for Lloyd McVeigh but he won’t be suiting up due to his D1 college commitment post season. That’s why I have question marks as it could be Davies put pace would be a concern, but he’d also be too nimble for Hoppo and Johns – though I think Johns is possibly the likely one with the length and experience.
Key Statistics
The Sabres are defensive masters in 2023 #1 in points not conceded (77.6), three-point percentage (26.6) and are also top two in field goal percentage conceded (40) and points in paint conceded (37.1). The Panthers are in number two behind them in many of these areas – defence is where the game will be won numbers wise.
The Central Closer
This game comes down to which of two of the stars of the league can break apart the opposition’s defence – it’s a classic bout of Forbes vs Starling. There will be some bit piece players but when it comes down to the crunch one of these two will take their team across the finish line. In a big final I can’t shake the Starling factor again and sense an upset…
COD Prediction: Panthers by 2 points
We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in Second Round of the finals between the the Sturt Sabres Women and Men up against the Norwood Flames Women and South Adelaide Panthers Men on Kayo and Kayo Freebies this weekend.
Please continue to support SA basketball news and features content being written as well as national/international with the Pick and Roll – with our influx of work we are making content all free to read but need constant contributions to make this happen. $5 a month is all we are asking – If not keen to subscribe then please message to receive direct debit details how you can keep these quality features being produced
CROSS OVER DRIBBLE 