Tonight's Grand Finals are in the hands of these four players - Wilson (Norwood) can swing it the Flames way, Brazel (Sturt) was influential in the final term of their last encounter, Machar (Forestville) elevated to another level the last time they met and can go further and Drmic (Bearcats) can break the game open in multiple ways...
3-Minute Read
Women’s Grand Final Preview: Sturt Sabres vs Norwood Flames
When: 5:30pm (ACST), Saturday August 12
Where: Adelaide 36ers Arena, Findon
Broadcast: Kayo Freebies, www.nbl1.com.au
The last time
SF: Sturt Sabres 66 (Brazel 16, N Mathews 13, Williams 12) defeated the Norwood Flames 54 (Smith 12, Wilson 9)
How they got here
The Sturt Sabres made it to their third grand final in four seasons, beating the Flames 66-54 at the Cave with a great coaching move and a strong second-half performance from Tayla Brazel. After a quiet first half Brazel emerged as a scoring threat with seven points for the third term. In the final term, Sabres coach Tim Shortt surprised the Flames by using a small ball lineup, including players like Brazel, Rigoni, the Mathews sisters, and Walker-Roberts. This strategy helped them beat the Flames and keep Ally Wilson from scoring.
The Norwood Flames created their own furnace in the second quarter to setup an early upset in the finals series with a pulsating 75-83 win against the Southern Tigers at the Cage. Jorjah Smith from Oakden Wolves/NBL1 West East Perth Eagles scored 20 points in 11 minutes during the second quarter, including six of nine three-pointers, giving the Flames the lead at halftime (46-60). Wilson and her Flames had the answers at every turn managing to hold off the Tigers by the finish. Smith finished with 22 points from the pine leading the Flames to eleven triples at 32 percent with Ally Wilson masterful on the down-hill drive with 19 points, 17 rebounds and six assists. After slipping up to the Sabres in the final term of their qualifying semi-final – things turned in their preliminary final second chance. Superstar Ally Wilson put the Norwood Flames into their first Grand Final since 2016 with a fire-powered 79-69 win at the ARC. Leading 33-29 at the main break was when Ally Wilson took the game by the scruff of the neck and heaved it into her team’s favour with a raucous home crowd. Wilson was unstoppable, scoring 14 points and getting seven rebounds to help the Flames reach the women’s Grand Final for the first time in almost seven years.. Wilson was above and all conquering and left plenty in awe with her 34 points, 17 rebounds, four assists and two steals.
The Sabres are currently undefeated at 19-0 going into the Grand Final. The last team to go through the whole season 20-0 was the North Adelaide Rockets in 2018, led by Jo Hill in her final season at 45 years old! The Flames have changed their list completely since round one and did not even announce their head coach before the first game. Despite being in the bottom five in the first half of the season, they were the last team to recruit and are now the only team left to challenge the undefeated Sabres..
Championship history
Sabres have been in four grand finals in the past decade, in 2011, 2014, 2019, and 2022. The last three finals were an average margin of five points. While not an official NBL1 season, they also won the ABC 2020 against the Southern Tigers. The Sabres have been in the championship decider nine times, and they have won five matches. This included two across 2006 and their last one 14 years ago in 2008, featuring stars Renae Camino (Garlepp) and the Bowley sisters of Monique and Hannah.
This is the Flames’s first appearance since the 2015 and 2016 deciders where they defeated the North Adelaide Rockets (59-42) and the West Adelaide Bearcats (63-45). They have made fourteen grand finals with their first way back in 1978, previously dominating the 2010s taking out four of the titles. Defence has been a big part of their championships with the average score conceding 54.62 points per each of their eight championship wins. The Flames elite players of the 2010s included Adelaide Lightning’s Jess Foley and Amy Lewis with Australian Opal and joint Halls Medallist Kristen Veal also a part of championship teams.
Despite Sturt and Norwood being contenders for the 2000s and 2010s – they’ve never met in the Women’s Grand Final in what will be a first for the state league.
The stats
– The Sturt Sabres are #1 in the league for offensive markers including points (80.3), field goals (41.4), Points in the paint (39), Points from turnover (12.9), Bench points (27.3) and Assists (20.2)
– They are also leading the league in defensive categories including steals (13.1), opposition points conceded (62.9), opposition three-point shots attempted (16.4), opposition bench points (10.9), opposition rebounds (42.3), opposition assists (12.4), opposition turnovers (23.6).
– The Sabres have eight players averaging five or more points, with Williams and Brazel leading with 18.6 and 14.6 respectively. Five players have two or more assists per game, with Nicola Mathews leading with 3.6. Seven Sabres have at least one steal per game, with Brazel as the league leader with 3.5 per game.
– The Flames are in the top three for scoring (77.6), three-pointers attempted (28.3), Points in the paint (35.5), Points from turnover (10.2), defensive rebounding (47.1), steals (12.2), opposition field goal percentage (35.8) and opposition points in the paint (28.7).
– Ally Wilson leads the way in most categories as #1 in assists (7.6), #3 in rebounding (10.8), #4 in the league for scoring (20.9 points) and steals (2.5).
– The Flames have six players averaging nine points or more per game with Sharna Thompson the best at 21.8, seven players averaging four or more rebounds, four players averaging two or more assists and six players at least averaging one steal per game.
The Money Women
Mikayla Williams is crucial to the Sabres’ success, as shown in the 2022 Grand Final where she played a significant role. The Bearcats held the back-to-back Halls Medallist to four points in their 26-8 second quarter which set up their win. Against the Flames in 2023 she averages 14 points (-2 on the season) and 16 rebounds (+5.3 rebounds) (6.6 offensive rebounds), 2.6 assists (+1.2) and 1.6 steals – while points are down her influence on the glass is the key to the Sabres going 20-0 in the season.
Ally Wilson’s influence in this series has been evident throughout the year and she could have won the MVP award. Wilson’s performance in the finals is outstanding, with an average of 20.6 points, 16.6 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.6 steals. Her rebounding has also improved by four, while her other stats remain consistent with her season averages. In fairness, the Sturt game was the one that dented these numbers. I think she’ll know this and if it comes down to taking over the game at the crunch – one last deadly performance may seal the elusive title for the Flames.
The Reliable Women
Nicola Mathews is the servant of this Sabres team – and she does it in different ways. She can hit the outside triple when required at crunch time or turn up the defence in the post can the 25-year-old. Averaging nine points at 42 percent, 3.4 assists and 2.7 rebounds – Mathews’s numbers don’t truly reveal her ability to come up with the big play at the right moment. Without going into too much detail, she’s done it more than once this season.
Sophie Kerridge was my vote for the most improved player in 2023 and has been a big factor at both ends of the floor for the Flames. Her numbers are up from 2022 with plus 5.7 in points (11.9), 1.3 rebounds (4.2), 0.7 assists (4.3), 0.4 in steals and equalled her shooting percentage with 45 percent. Add to her ability to shut down the big-time guard players like Yaeger and Jasmin Fejo and you have one of the efficient reasons the Flames have made it all the way.
The X-Factors
Tayla Brazel is the missing piece from last year’s decider has been in incredible form. Chris Lucas a few years ago when he was coaching the Adelaide Lightning was not wrong about what the 19-year-old is capable of. In the semi-finals, she played as a centre and showed remarkable versatility, providing a glimpse into the future of basketball. With her speed, strength, versatility, and concentration, she’s well-equipped to stop Wilson, which is her principal task. Rising talent Lightning players have shown their intent in grand finals with memorable performances, like Mia Murray in 2009. This could be another moment for the Gem in Brazel.
Sharna Thompson is the prominent figure in all the Flames games, with much riding on her shots dropping from beyond the arc. In the Flames wins this season Thompson has averaged 4.6 makes versus losses where it’s 4.5. The big difference is the number of attempts with 12.9 compared to 11.9. Thompson can tear the game apart shooting-wise in any quarter and the Flames might need her to do it again to clinch the title.
COD Prediction: Sabres by 5 points
Men’s Grand Final Preview: Forestville Eagles vs West Adelaide Bearcats
When: 8:00pm (ACST), Saturday August 12
Where: Adelaide 36ers Arena, Findon
Broadcast: Kayo Freebies, www.nbl1.com.au
The last time
QSF: West Adelaide Bearcats 81 (Drmic 25, DeSantis, Olbrich 16, McCarron 15) defeated by Forestville Eagles 83 (Machar 26, Mays 20)
How they got here
Forestville Eagles won against Sturt Sabres with a thrilling 90-89 score, but there was some late tension. Doyle scored the first five points of the fourth quarter to give his team a 16-point lead, but the Sabres made a comeback and the game was won by Greg Mays with a single free throw. Mays was the equal game scorer with 32 points, nine rebounds and two blocks with Machar monstering his way to a double-double with 18 points and 10 rebounds. Adam Doyle controlled the contest with 26 points, seven assists, three rebounds and steals.
The Eagles, then in the semi-final qualifier, upset the West Adelaide Bearcats at the death at Port Adelaide 81-83. Malith Machar showed his growth and maturity with a huge third term (16 points), especially with his skipper Adam Doyle quiet on the scorecard points wise but dishing it up to Machar at every opportunity and gave the Eagles the ascendancy 62-65 at the final change. In a pulsating final few minutes, Anthony Drmic put the Bearcats in front with a basket 79-80. With twelve seconds left and the ball in the Eagles hands, Doyle made the big-time layup. Out of the time out Drmic took a heavily contested layup away from the window and in forcing to foul sent Machar to the line for a free throw. Drmic tried for redemption from half court, coming up agonisingly short with the ball rimming and the Eagles through to the decider.
West Adelaide Bearcats then snuffed out any notion of a let down defeating Sturt Sabres 96-73 at the Port in the Preliminary Final. Drmic bit the Sabres early while Illawarra Hawks Lachlan Olbrich soared as they both notched 10 first-quarter points – Drmic working in a phone box on the three-point line and Olbrich beasting inside jumping them in front 25-12 after one and they were never headed from there. Drmic set the tone from the start with 27 points, eight rebounds and three assists while McCarron delivered, dished and even helped himself in his 21 points, nine assists and six rebounds. Olbrich was too big and strong with all those deliveries with 14 points and six rebounds and DeSantis put the cherry on top of a wonderful performance with 18 points.
The script has flipped for the Eagles coming into this one with an Andy Simons well-gelled team compared to the star-studded one of 2022 and the Bearcats led by the master of the “star” team Dean Nyberg looking to put it all together one more time to seal the championship season domination they’ve held.
Championship history
The Eagles have a rich history of the men’s making and winning the deciding match. They’ve been in 15 Grand Finals winning seven of them – if you include West Torrens it’s eight of 20 since 1958. In 2019, The Eagle’s won their largest Grand Final victory with a 27-point victory over the Mt Gambier Pioneers, surpassing their usual eight-point winning margin. Adam Doyle has been a huge part of their titles, having been part of the 2011, 2012, and 2013 but missed 2019 playing in the NBL1 South.
The Bearcats men’s have had the opposite story since their golden era of the 70s and 80s famously breaking a 21-year drought in 2017 under stalwart Blake Truslove. Before that title, they had made 28 grand finals including a golden period of 1967 to 1988 where they only missed twice in 1984 and 1987. They won 12 of those Grand Finals by an average margin of 14.75 so it’s often a good night on the winning side of grand finals for the black and red. Overall, they hold a 15/28 record with an impressive 5-peat across 1978-1982. Werner Linde, Ken Richardson, Al Green, Mike McKay and Leroy Loggins were legendary final’s performers which coincided with the Bearcats joining the NBL.
They have met 5 times in the grand final before, with the first in 1974 and the most recent in 2013. Both teams had familiar names playing in Jason Cadee and Daniel Johnson, including three players and a coach who will feature on Saturday – Adam Doyle, Jake Rios, Anthony Spadavecchia and coach Andy Simons. The record is 2-2 so historically nothing much separates these two teams.
The stats
– The Bearcats are #1 in the league for offensive markers including points (97.9), field goals (50.6), three-point percentage (35.6), Points in the paint (48.3) and Points from turnover (11.7)
– They are ranked #1 in the league for defensive markers including steals (11), opposition field goal percentage (47.4), opposition three-point shots attempted (25.4), opposition rebounds (38.4) and opposition steals (7.4)
– The Bearcats starting five naturally does most of the damage led by five players with double figures or more in points (Drmic at the top with 23 per game), six players with four rebounds or more (Olbrich the leader with 9.3) and six players with two or more assists with McCarron leading the way with 6.2
– The Eagles are top three in scoring (76.7), field goal percentage (46.8), three-point percentage (34.9), points from turnover (10.7), defensive rebounding (47.1), fast break points (#1 with 12.3), assists (23.6), blocks (4.1), opposition three-point percentage (30.7) and opposition from turnover (7.7) – however a huge outlier is that they are last in conceding opposition points from fast break with 12.3 points given up per game.
– Greg Mays has had an incredible season, so it’s hard to believe this could be a career-best one for him – he’s #8 in blocks (1.2), #9 in points (19.8), #21 in rebounding (6.9) but is shooting the ball at 60 percent from 252 attempts – an average of 14 per game.
The Money Men
Greg Mays it’s hard to believe that he’s having a career-best season but put it simply he is. He’s plus two points up along with six percent in his field goal percentage. That tells you that people should no longer underrate Mays and he’s the man with the money hands at both ends of the floor in this one. There are no more “star” players to overshadow him.
Anthony Drmic is like a fine wine getting better with age. What we saw at the Adelaide 36ers in the NBL he’s replicated for the Bearcats – whoever has the assignment defensively will have their hands full. Although it seems the less space, you give “Drmreaper” – the more he excels in finding the result.
Read more here about Drmic’s impact in the preliminary final
The Reliable Men
Adam Doyle has made another grand final and has been as consistent and damaging with ball in hand as ever. Averaging more assists than most of his seasons (7.4) – he’s the most experienced in coming into a state grand final.
Mitch McCarron – The Adelaide 36ers Captain has done exactly what he’s needed to do, at the right time and the right way. His numbers are pretty much identical to previous NBL1 seasons including 15.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, 6.6 assists but he’s shot the ball at about five percent better than previous seasons. He’s a big-time performer too and will pull out the 20-point game if needed on Saturday, otherwise he’ll feed his team with what they need at both ends of the floor.
The X-Factors
Malith Machar the 24-year-old can cement some NBL next-level minutes with Melbourne United with a big time performance – and it’s been building for Machar. He’s blown his average out to 21 points at 57.6 percent and 6.6 rebounds in the last three games and is probably out of the players coming into this final playing above his expected output- that’s a good sign for him.
Lachlan Olbrich I love watching a centre play and already many will scratch their head why they didn’t go harder at the 20-year-old like the Illawarra Hawks. He’s capable of the big-time moment and something special when his team has needed it. Playing with the stars he has in the Bearcats team has shown how, when placed with the right pieces, how much of an impact he can have.
COD Prediction: Bearcats by 11 points
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