Who's proven and who's not???: Two new sides are yet to prove themselves in their first finals series in recent memory while for others is it business time or out of time? Pictures by Snap Shot Photography, Picture IT Sports Photography and AllStar Photos
3-Minute Read
Elimination Semi-Final
South Adelaide Panthers vs Norwood Flames
Women (1:30pm Sunday) – The Jungle
Results this season
Norwood Flames 52 (Anderson 15, Basham 14) defeated by South Adelaide Panthers 79 (Spencer 34, Levicki 20)
South Adelaide Panthers 56 (Johnson 21, Hunter 12) defeated Norwood Flames 76 (Basham 20, Wilson 19, Coleman 11)
Matchups that matter
Jordan Hunter vs Ally Wilson
One of the few Panthers and defensive stoppers that can stop the superstar Bendigo Spirit player who is in the form of her life. The Hunter vs Wilson matchup will be more than just a defensive one with the Panthers desperately needing a kick in their offence with Hunter to hit the scoreboard with 10 or more here.
Jade Johnson vs Brooke Basham
A tale of two players one needing to fire and the other one finding fine form at the right time of the season. There are no more chances; Johnson needs to produce a massive game for the Panthers to stay alive. For Basham she’s cooking right now with an average of 24 in her last two games.
Ash Spencer vs Molly Coleman
Spencer at her best is a tough matchup for the Flames as she proved in Round 1 but missed their next encounter. She embodies everything about the Panthers line-up and simply needs an enormous game as well including a fast start. Coleman has been the perfect piece for the Flames and has come into the line-up and played her role. She’s getting the rewards with 19, 10 and 24 in her last three games and that’s posing problems for opposition coaches.
Key Statistics
The Panthers worrying trend leading into the finals was exposed by the Sabres last weekend. What’s been happening for a month is an average 20 turnovers and giving up 19 assists to their opposition. That plays to the Flames favour as the number two in the competition for steals (11.7) and while the Panthers are number one; they had just 7 against the Sabres last week.
The Central Closer
The form between these two has been quite polarising. The Panthers looked the goods till about four weeks ago and even then, I thought they would still turn it around with their finals experience from last season. It shows though having to change style of play on the fly is one of the biggest challenges for any club. That’s something the Flames have not had to do and right now they are burning brighter. I think sadly for one of my pre-season favourites it might be straight sets in 2022 for the Panthers.
COD Prediction: Flames by 8 points
Qualifying Semi-Final
West Adelaide Bearcats vs Sturt Sabres
Women (3:30pm Sunday) – The Bearcat Cave
Results this season
Sturt Sabres 77 (Williams 15, Close 12, Rigoni 12) defeated West Adelaide Bearcats 62 (Langenbrinck 22, Fejo 19, Rintala 12)
West Adelaide Bearcats 80 (Rintala 25, Utti 18, Fejo 16, Simmons 14) defeated Sturt Sabres 63 (Williams 18, Walker-Roberts 14, Prosser 13)
Matchups that matter
Jasmin Fejo vs Zoe Walker-Roberts
The time has come for Fejo to really put her best foot forward and win a huge final for her club and get back on the radar for higher honours. It’s the Bearcats first finals appearance since 2019 where they went down in a thriller to the Mt Gambier Pioneers; since then she’s been around the Lightning radar. Her all-star five selection justifies her consideration as a key player in this one. Meanwhile the quiet achiever for the Sabres story is ZWR. Her impact is starting to be seen outside the four walls of Springbank and can damage the home side at both ends of the floor.
Jennie Rintala vs Mikayla Williams
Rintala has wrecked the Sabres in both contests averaging 18.5 against them this season. It’s a difficult matchup for the away side on the rebounding front as well considering they still must contain Utti as well. The reigning Halls medallist is the likely matchup coming off another double figure and plus nine rebound performance (13 and 17) her eighteenth of the season (that one was compiled by AB from The Hoopsters NBL1 Central Basketball Show). This matchup will be a treat to watch on the glass with Rintala in the half-court and Williams in the open court. Williams accelerates off defensive rebound from first to fifth gear and Rintala finds different areas in the keyway to expose her opposition.
Abby Brenton vs Emily Close
Two young ones to watch can provide their team the edge. Brenton has had a solid year and continues to produce numbers in key games with 7.4 points and 3.4 rebounds. Close bounced back hard last week particularly defensively in a crucial patch for the Sabres that squeezed the life out of the Panthers. I expect she’ll be back to hitting the scoreboard this weekend as she did their first win over the Bearcats.
Key Statistics
The Sabres are one of three teams to have beaten the Bearcats this season and they did it similarly to the others. All three teams hustled the ball off the red and black with an average of 10.6 steals from the Bearcats 18.3 turnovers. Opposition have also been to the free throw line an average of 23 times. The Bearcats strength has been their glass domination as the number one in the competition and if they can get a hold of the Sabres those potential cracks can be kept shut.
The Central Closer
The Sabres have proved to me their style of play stands up in finals. The Bearcats as good as they have been this season are unproven but as well have overwhelming strengths. I think this one may come down to the moves from coach of the year Tim Shortt and the top of the table Kay-Lee Stuart. The Bearcats also have one too many class players but if any team statistically is equipped to stop the Bearcats; it’s the Sabres…
COD Prediction: Bearcats by 3 points
Qualifying Semi-Final
Woodville Warriors vs South Adelaide Panthers
Men (7:30pm Saturday) – The Castle
Results this season
South Adelaide Panthers 82 (Starling 32, Davies 22, Hoppo 13) defeated by Woodville Warriors 91 (Stepney 22, Humphries 20, Meldrum 18, Jackson 12)
Woodville Warriors 66 (Meldrum 12, Stepney 11) defeated by South Adelaide Panthers 90 (Smith 20, Starling 19, Davies 11)
Matchups that matter
Riley Meldrum vs Jeremy Smith
One of the most improved players in the league has the enviable task for the third time this season. That won’t faze Meldrum who has been one of the few to keep “The Mid-Range Marvel” and the reigning Woollacott medallist and MVP of the league quiet. He’s also done some scoring back his own way already averaging 15 points per game against the Panthers. Smith showed some fightback and despite just the 19 and 20 points the last two weeks compared to his season average; he’s ready to fire again…
Jawan Stepney vs Alex Starling
Both have been able to matchup on any type of player this season. That flexibility has been key to both sides throwing their stars around to counter any type of offensive setup. What both of these players offer up will be of intrigue.
David Humphries vs Sam Johns
The silent achievers for both sides resulted in an all-star five position for Humphries and a huge timely performance for Johns. Humphries will be a hard man to stop but Johns is physically and mentally able to go on the ride with him and provide a painful points provision on the other side.
Key Statistics
The Warriors sat back and watched that inspiring performance from the Panthers but can take advantage of their areas they’ve excelled at in 2022. They’ve held opposition to 79.3 points off the back of being number two for assists (22.1) and number one in turnovers least conceded. Last week the Panthers stole the ball 11 times and forced the Eagles into 17 turnovers; that’s something they’ll need again to do to the Warriors.
The Central Closer
The story has been about the Panthers but let’s not forget the Warriors “Last Dance” is still happening and may have been forgotten. Reigning coach of the year Scott Whitmore will be under no false illusions about the task ahead however when tested when it’s mattered this season; him and his team have come out on top. Until they show they can’t, they still get the first pass to the Grand Final.
COD Prediction: Warriors by 9 points
Elimination Semi-Final
Forestville Eagles vs Norwood Flames
Men (7:00pm Saturday) – The Nest
Results this season
Forestville Eagles 90 (Doyle 18, Purchase, Mays 17, Brine 12) defeated by Norwood Flames 95 (Huefner 21, McBride 20, Lycett 17, Green 16)
Norwood Flames 72 (Barei 15, Green, Webber 10) defeated by Forestville Eagles 28 (Machar 28, Purchase 27, Mays 17, Doyle, Ipassou 12)
Matchups that matter
Malith Machar vs Matt Lycett
The Melbourne United DP got a taste of what the business end of things was like and came up a little shorter than he’d want. With some doubt over Ray Harding clearly after last week’s late mishap; Machar has plenty of advantages over the Flames. That may force the Flames to send Lycett to Machar despite probably wanting him to go to Daniel Johnson. Lycett was a huge problem for the Eagles back in their game at the Nest and can cause equal headaches for the Simons brains trust again.
Jack Purchase vs Daniel Webber
Speaking of difficult matchups Purchase has been just that for the Flames. He’s dropped 10 of 22 across both games beyond the arc and stretched thin the Flames defence. Webber seems the likely matchup all based on the fitness status of Harding.
Greg Mays vs Anthony Green
The two excitement machines for the Eagles and Flames will be key momentum swingers. Mays has proven finals experience and Green also showed a fair bit of substance in the finals of 2021. Expect both to put on an air show but it’s the rim protection at the defensive end that will be worth watching their value for.
Key Statistics
The Eagles were undone last week by some solid defensive work by the Panthers being forced into strange turnovers. The Flames managed to dominate the rebounds to setup multiple opportunities with 43-36 over the Rockets and if they can control that area against the number one rebounding team in the competition; they give themselves a chance.
The Central Closer
The Eagles would be hurting a huge amount after having last weeks game early in the piece and seeing the momentum of the Panthers take it away. It all comes down to personnel for both sides and I think the full strength Eagles will be just too strong this time around.
COD Prediction: Eagles by 15 points
We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in the second week of the finals between the South Adelaide Panthers/Norwood Flames and West Adelaide Bearcats/Sturt Sabres on Kayo and Kayo Freebies tomorrow.
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