Author: Tristan Prentice

How does this story end: A drought of 8 or 24 years will be broken tonight and there are some key protagonists in this unfinished script. 

5-Minute Read

*The following article may have excerpts appear on the Basketball South Australia website to broaden reach of analysis

Men’s Grand Final Preview: Woodville Warriors vs South Adelaide Panthers

When: 8:30pm (ACST), Saturday September 3

Where: The Lights Community and Sports Centre, Lightsview 

Broadcast: Kayo Freebies, www.nbl1.com.au

The last time
Woodville Warriors 97 (Stepney 29, Humphries 18, Jackson 14, A Maiorana 12, Meldrum, Wurm 11) defeated South Adelaide Panthers 77 (Smith 33, Starling 15) – Qualifying Semi-Final at the Castle

How they got here

The Warriors came in after the first week off in questionable form but also many suspected they were just readying themselves for when it counted. They have done that so many times this season and another opportunity presented itself at the beginning of the fourth quarter of the Qualifying Final. That’s when an incredible haul from import Jawan Stepney stepped the Warriors up to their first Grand Final since 2014 as they grabbed hold of the Panthers 97-77 at the Castle. Stepney showed up and showered them in as he dropped 19 final quarter points including 5 of 5 beyond the arc as the last resistance of the Panthers who clung on after leading at quarter time were washed away.

For the Panthers, it was two incredible turning back the clock performances that stunned the Eagles and gave them their first finals win in 14 years 90-105 at the Nest. Orchestrated by master coach the legendary Scott Ninnis, the Panthers channelled every part of him and the way he played to a tee particularly through two-time Woollacott medallist Alex Starling and veteran Sam Johns. After being stunned by Stepney and the Warriors- the Panthers made their move in the Preliminary Final. It was incredible scenes that awashed the Jungle as the Panthers booked their first Grand Final appearance since 1998 with an upset 85-70 win over the pre-season favourites Forestville Eagles. The Scott Ninnis led team had no shortage of cameos and another superstar performance from Woollacott Medallist Jeremy Smith.

It’s the “Fairytale” Panthers and the “Last Dance” Warriors who have been building to this moment with likely several players having their last crack at the ship. Led by the two Scott’s – an all-time classic is on the cards.  

Championship history

Woodville Warriors who formed in 1982 have been a part of four Grand Finals winning three of them in 2000, 2005 and 2014. This will be their fifth Grand Final upcoming where their average winning margin in the big dance has been 5 points. The 2014 Grand Final remains memorable for the performance of Woollacott Medallist and current Panthers star Alex Starling (36 points) and the late heroics of Adam Miller and Darren Ng (having a single season with the club in between his NBL career wind-down). Notable Championship winners of this club include Cameron Wilson who played in all three Grand Finals as Captain, Craig Gilbert who was also Captain of the 2000 team and the coach who could add to his already studded CV- Scott Whitmore.    

It has been a long time for the South Adelaide Panthers in fact 24 years since their last championship and 19 years since their last appearance. In their long history they have made seventeen Grand Finals including a string of seven in a row from 1963-1973. That was the era of the great Michael Ah-Matt, Dean Whitford, Scott Davie and starting centre Bruce Ninnis. They won five of those while the Panthers of the late 80s and 90s made eight winning five of them through stars Mark Davis, Scott Ninnis, Craig Adams, Darren Breeding, Matt Reece and Ron Nunnelly. Much like Whitmore, Ninnis can further elevate his colours into the ceiling of the Shed at Marion if he adds this one.   

These two teams have also never met in a Grand Final in over 40 years of playing each other- history again will be made Saturday night.

The stats

– The Warriors are one of the most evenly balanced teams in the Mens in 2022. They have had seven times this season 5 or more players score double figures plus 15 games where they have had 4 or more with at least one more player on 8 or 9 points. In their three losses this season it’s been 4, 3 and 2 players in double figures. That’s generated from the high assist count as the number two team in the competition with 22.3 and their highly efficient number one in field goal percentage 47.8, 36.6 in three-point percent, 10.1 in steals and least in turnovers 11.5.    

– The Panthers rely on getting opposition to turn the ball over hence the high steal count ranking them number two in the competition of 9.9. That produces the third most number of points per game (85.1) however their other key statistics rank fourth or below. It’s a team where the stats don’t tell the full story of how far they’ve come.       

– The Warriors evenness is proven in the rankings with Jawan Stepney, Nick Wurm, David Humphries, Joe Jackson in the top 50 scoring averages but Stepney the highest averages 17.3 at #16. In rebounding – it’s Jackson, Humphries, Stepney and McGee with Jackson grabbing 8.3 at #9. In assists – it’s Stepney, Humphries, Wurm, Riley Meldrum, James Boonstoppel and Jackson with Stepney at 4.4 at #10. The steals are where they really excel though with Humphries ranked #3 with 2.6 and five others in the top 50 in 2022.        

– The Panthers have two clear standouts in the statistics that drive everything. Smith is #1 in points per game (26.6), #30 in rebounds per game (5.4), #23 in assists per game (3) and in the top 50 for steals per game. Starling is highly ranked as well as the #2 for steals (2.8), #3 for rebounds (11.8), #9 for points (19.5) and #21 for assists (3.1). The rest get it done by committee.  

The Money Men

David Humphries – The quiet achiever for the Warriors is also their ultra-consistent go to player in the crunch. You know he’s going to produce game in game out and the big final should be no exception.
 
Jeremy Smith – If the Panthers are to break their drought, then Smith must produce 25 plus for them to be a chance. The Warriors defence have been “The Mid-Range Marvel’s” kryptonite having averaged 18.3 against the top of the table side.    

The Reliable Men 

Joe Jackson – Jackson surprisingly hasn’t been in the spotlight you feel as much in his second season compared to 2021. That won’t worry him whatsoever as his production of close to a double double on a weekly basis is the glue that holds the Warriors front court together. He’s a permanent fixture in the Warriors lineup.  

Alex Starling – Part of the last Warriors championship is on the other side of the fence this time. Speaking to him time and time again, Starling feels very comfortable with his game despite being not quite the player he was a decade ago. The numbers if anything have slightly peaked in other areas and that makes him extremely reliable for the Panthers. The most impressive thing is in the Preliminary Final he played with three fouls for over three quarters- that’s reliable.

The X-Factors

Jawan Stepney – If the last time they met is anything to go by- everyone knows that Stepney is the game breaker for the Warriors. 19 points including 5 from 5 ridiculous triples sunk the ship for the Panthers at the Castle. If the game is on the line the ball will be likely in his hands and we might see something special in the finish just like we did for the Warriors in 2014.    

Jarryd Hoppo – His impact, enthusiasm and importance is unquestionable. The Panthers huge victories of this season have seen this young man grow the confidence Ninnis has exuded. When the Panthers need a late hero; it could be fittingly the fan favourite that finds the match winning play in the finish.

COD Prediction: Warriors by 5 points/David Humphries Grand Final MVP

Catch all the NBL1 Central action tonight on the NBL1 website, app on Kayo and Kayo Freebies

NBL1 – Australia’s League

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A decade two years apart: Its been over a decade since both teams tasted success in 2007 and 2008. 

5-Minute Read

*The following article may have excerpts appear on the Basketball South Australia website to broaden reach of analysis

Women’s Grand Final Preview: West Adelaide Bearcats vs Sturt Sabres

When: 4:30pm (ACST), Saturday September 3

Where: The Lights Community and Sports Centre, Lightsview 

Broadcast: Kayo Freebies, www.nbl1.com.au

The last time

West Adelaide Bearcats 94 (Fejo 32, Utti 21, Rintala 13, Langenbrinck 11) defeated Sturt Sabres 82 (Williams 22, Close 14 Prosser 13, N Mathews 11) – Qualifying Semi-Final at the Bearcat Cave

How they got here

The fury of Jasmin Fejo was felt fully by the Sabres as she lifted the Bearcats to their first Grand Final since 2016 at the Bearcat cave 94-82 in the Qualifying Semi-Final. Pushing her case for a WNBL recall the All-Star Five guard amassed 32 points including 12 of 12 from the free throw line to steer her side to the lead through close to a full game. She got rolling with 12 for the second period and slicing her way through the Sabres for a 9-0 run. She fueled them in the fourth keeping the Sabres at more than arm’s length. Apart from the superstar Fejo’s hand, Madelynn Utti was the other force of nature with 21 points and 17 rebounds.

Meanwhile the Sabres had to take out one of the favourites at the halfway point of the season. In the Qualifying Final, The Sturt Sabres were not short on answers every time the Panthers tried to make a run as they sealed a convincing 55-69 win at the Jungle. It all changed in the second quarter as the Sabres turned up the claws on their fellow cats holding the Panthers scoreless for 3 minutes and reeling off runs of 0-11 and 0-7. That was instigated by the return of Emily Close, Jasmin Rigoni, the Mathews sisters and Mikayla Williams who dropped 7 points and 5 rebounds for the term. After their slip up against the Bearcats they looked in trouble at halftime in the Preliminary Final. It was a second half defensive clinic coupled with the Halls Medallist Mikayla Williams who when the game was there to be won grabbed it with both hands as the Sabres closed out the South Adelaide Panthers 74-70 at the Cave. The Halls Medallist had a season high 31 points, 19 rebounds and an efficiency rating of 41- she was the match winner in the final term.

The Bearcats have rolled in on a four-game winning streak and won 14 of their last 15 games with several players in and out during the season. Their coach in Kay-lee Stuart as well during that time had been absent with Australian duties. The Sabres found their match winner when it counted and once again showed their system stands up in finals.

Championship history

The Bearcats Women have waited a long time to get back to the big dance with their last appearance in 2016 going down to the North Adelaide Rockets 45-63. The Bearcats have won the championship six times and been in the Grand Final seventeen times. They made five in a row across 1989-1993 with back-to-back championships in 1992 and 1993. Notable players across these era were superstars Pat Mickan, Rachael Sporn, Cass Pujals, Sam Woosnam, Trina Balter, Debbie Miller and Heather McKinnon. They have not won since 2007 to which another club legend in Kaye-Lee Stuart will be looking to steer them to the promise land.  

This is the Sabres third grand final in a decade having made the 2011, 2014 and 2019 deciders with the two most recent going down to an average margin of just 3 points. While not an official NBL1 season they also won the ABC 2020 against the Southern Tigers. The Sabres have been in the championship decider just eight times winning five of those encounters. This included two across 2006 and their last one 14 years ago in 2008 featuring stars Renae Camino (Garlepp) and the Bowley sisters of Monique and Hannah.

These two teams have never met in a Grand Final in over 65 years- history will be made Saturday night.

The Stats

The West Adelaide Bearcats are number three or above in points per game (80.2), field goals (41), three point percentage (29.3), free throws (70), assists (21.4), offensive rebounds (16.3), defensive rebounds (34.6) and total rebounds (50.8). In their losses this season they have lower assist numbers then their season average in 14, 18 and 15 so stifling supply of the Bearcats and making them beat you one on one is the key.

The Sturt Sabres are number three or above in three point percentage (31), Offensive rebounds (14.6), free throws (72.5) and points per game (78.5 3rd). That tells you the Sabres often from their second chance points create plenty of free throw opportunities. As a result, their field goals (39.5), assists (18.1), defensive rebounding (29) and total rebounds (43.6) drop significantly in the numbers.

The Bearcats have five players averaging 9 or more points, three players with 10 or more rebounds and 3 or more assists.

Williams is the only player that averages over 10 points and 10 rebounds per game, but they have three players that average between 9 and 10 points.  

The Money Women

Jasmin Fejo – The star Bearcat is breathing down the neck of a WNBL contract and she’s a big-time performer. She was pivotal last time they met and will drive all aspects of this game. She can write herself into NBL1 Central folklore with another huge game performance from a player that has bounced back from some challenges.  
 
Mikayla Williams – She showed last week what a bonafide superstar she was by showing she had another gear we didn’t know. You know you are going to get a double double from her but if she plays like she did in the Preliminary final, taking her side and the Grand Final MVP will not be beyond her.

The Reliable Women 

Jasmine Simmons – You notice when she’s there by not noticing her and that’s the real gift of Simmons. The quiet achiever of the Bearcats averages 9.5 points including 60 percent from the field, 10 rebounds and 4.6 assists. She is the ultimate all-rounder for this team and should get a jersey for this game despite being on the Adelaide Crows AFLW list.    

Kayla Mathews – It was apparent when Mathews struck foul trouble in the semi-final how important her impact on the floor is. When she’s played 30 minutes plus in the finals her opponent averaged 9.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 5.5 turnovers. When she played under 20 minutes versus the Bearcats it was a very different set of numbers. She’s also scored some big-time go-ahead buckets and set the tone defensively for her side in the full court defensive sets.  

The X-Factors

Madelynn Utti – She has flown into this league and for a player her height has dominated the glass and the scoreboard. Potentially she can rip the Sabres apart like she did in the second half the last time they met with 15 points and 10 rebounds in the second half. The import is the smokey for the MVP in on the big stage.

Meg Prosser – Prosser is one spotlight game away from taking the next level to be a Sabres star player. She’s hit 8 of 14 from beyond the arc in the finals and in the absence of star junior Tayla Brazel had a huge season. I think she’s ready to show us what a special player she really is.

COD Prediction: Bearcats by 7 points/Jasmin Fejo Grand Final MVP

Catch all the NBL1 Central action tonight on the NBL1 website, app on Kayo and Kayo Freebies

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Aces high and streaks alive: A hand is possibly yet to be revealed by the Panthers and a feat few thought achievable this season of beating a team four times remains alive coming into crunch preliminaries. Pictures by Snap Shot Photography and AllStar Photos

2-Minute Read

Women’s Preliminary Final

Sturt Sabres vs South Adelaide Panthers

Women (6:15pm) – The Cave

Last time they met

South Adelaide Panthers 55 (Forbes 12, Spencer 11) defeated by Sturt Sabres 69 (Prosser 14, Williams 13, Z Walker-Roberts 11)

Matchups that matter

Kayla Mathews vs Jade Johnson

If you wanted to know how important Johnson is hitting shots this season, you got the answer last Sunday afternoon. Equally if Mathews opponent gets off the chain like last week then it can destroy her side. Mathews struck foul trouble last weekend and it was telling as Fejo got a hold of her and the Sabres. The outcome of this matchup again will be key to the victory for either side.  

Mikayla Williams vs Ash Spencer

The Halls medallist was brilliant again last week and last time she played the Panthers; she monstered them. However, the Panther leader “Splash” found something last week that got her rolling. She had one of her fastest starts in the past few months with 8 in the opening term. We know she’s the engine room of this team as is Williams for the Sabres. Stop the engines and you stop the teams!!!   

Zoe Walker-Roberts vs Hannah Stewart

Both these players have provided the numbers often needed at both ends to steer their sides to the win. ZWR had just the 9 points and 4 rebounds going at a 10 in efficiency. On the flip side Stewart had a season high 23 points, 3 rebounds and a 28 in efficiency. When the Sabres won two weeks ago ZWR had 11 points, 6 rebounds and 16 in efficiency while Stewart had 10 points, 5 rebounds and an 8 in efficiency. The more efficient will likely come from the side that comes out on top.

Key Statistics

The numbers that matter were the Panthers last weeks versus the Flames. They split even on the rebounds 43-42, had 19 assists, 40 points in the paint, 9 fast break points and shot 50 percent from the field. In 2021 the numbers were 48.1 in rebounds, 20.9 in assists and without having the exact numbers I’m very confident that it was on average the similar numbers in the paint, fast break points and shot 41.5 percent on average from the field. It shows when they can, the Panthers transition game is the winning formula for their games coupled with some tenacious defence.  

The Central Closer

Different venue and different circumstances this time around and nothing changed in my opinion about the Sabres from week one despite the loss to an impressive Bearcats team last week. I think that maybe the Panthers have been holding a poker hand for quite some time and right on the cusp of elimination have revealed most of their hand. I just get my basketball gut feeling they’ve got one more ace up the sleeve to get them to the big dance and their first since 2003…

COD Prediction: Panthers by 3 points

Men’s Preliminary Final

South Adelaide Panthers vs Forestville Eagles

Men (8:15pm) – The Jungle

Last time they met

Forestville Eagles 90 (Purchase 22, Doyle, Johnson 19) defeated by South Adelaide Panthers 101 (Starling 32, Smith, Johns 19, Hoppo 14)

Matchups that matter

Alex Starling vs Adam Doyle

Ninnis threw the ultimate curveball last time they met sending his NBL1 Central DPOY to the Eagles champion guard. It proved a match winning move as not only did Starling give Doyle some headaches, but he also lynched the Eagles. He’s the key to stopping the supply of the scorers and the league’s best defender will get this match up again you’d think.      

Sam Johns vs Daniel Johnson

It takes one to know one and the former teammate of Daniel Johnson wound it back in a big way in the final a few weeks back. That was also the piece that was noticeably missing for the Panthers and regained by the Eagles against the Flames. No surprise to see these two matched up on each other again but can Johns do it one more time to see his side into a Grand Final?

Jarryd Hoppo vs Malith Machar

Another who just couldn’t get into the rhythm of the match last week will be keen to repeat the dosage of the first final. Machar however bounced back after a flat first week with 14 points. The fate of both teams hinges on the contributions of these two developing stars and their ability to make that clutch shot from outside the arc.  

Key Statistics

For three times in a row the Panthers forced the Eagles yet again into sloppy ball movement forcing them into 17 turnovers from 11 steals which the likes of Smith and Starling have capitalised on. If they can do it four in a row, then they are in the box seat but the Eagles will be aware of the trend and look to blitz the Panthers like the Warriors did. In the final quarter it was 5 second chance points and fast break points along with holding the Panthers to 6 of 17 from the field (35 percent).

The Central Closer

To paraphrase with some embellishment someone famous, “To lose once could be considered misfortune, to lose twice looks like carelessness, to lose thrice is possibly coincidence and to lose four times…”

We’ll find out the answer to that Saturday night…

COD Prediction: Panthers by 4 points in OT

We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in the preliminary finals between the Sturt Sabres/South Adelaide Panthers and South Adelaide Panthers/Forestville Eagles on Kayo and Kayo Freebies tomorrow.

NBL1 – Australia’s League

Please continue to support SA basketball news and features content being written, with our recent influx of work we are making content all free to read again but need constant contributions to make this happen