Spark snuffed by Fire for Lightning: Rounds 6 to 11 of WNBL23

The Boomers rocked Lightning through Goodchild and George then Lightning clock struck midnight but couldn’t derail Boomer train. The Spirit were potent as Maley monsters Lightning again then Lynx lash out to crush late year run. The Lightning resolution burned out the Fire before Flames and Spirit second half sprees shutdown Lightning’s final charge.

Here’s the COD Dossier on the middle third of the Lightning’s season

Borlase-imo: While it has not been smooth sailing for the Lightning through the middle third of the season, watching Betty Watson youth award contender Izzy Borlase come of age in the WNBL has been the standout highlight of these set of games - Photo credit to WNBL

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7-Minute Read

The Cross-Over-Dribble Dossier

Adelaide Lightning vs Melbourne Boomers

Checkout the WNBL snaps from the Lightning’s game versus Melbourne Boomers

The Rundown

The Lightning got off to a fast start leading 18-9 and then the Boomers went bang. It was 11-21 in favour of the away side with no Tiffany Mitchell but Miela Goodchild was lighting it up along with George.

Although the Lightning got back into it at half time 40-45 – the air of the Boomers taking over was building and in the third quarter in a quiet sort of manner exploded the margin out to 49-73. The bigs of the Boomers sealed in the Lightning’s forwards like Nelson-Ododa and George and they exposed the inexperience of their opposition winning the quarter 9-28 and ultimately cruised to the win.

What the numbers said

The Lightning’s turnovers in the second half were costly as they gave up seven after only five at the half. Not only that the Boomers crushed the boards in the second half 18-26, shot five percent better while the Lightning dropped by four percent.

Adelaide Lightning 64 (Bell 16, Talbot 13, Borlase 10, Cubillo 8) defeated by Melbourne Boomers 89 (Nelson-Ododa, Wallace 20, George 19, Goodchild 17, Murray 8) at Adelaide 36ers Arena

Melbourne Boomers vs Adelaide Lightning

Checkout the WNBL snaps from the Lightning’s overtime thriller against the Boomers


The Rundown

The Lightning bounced back in a big way from the disappointing second half at home to play one of their best games of the season against the now championship favourites. After giving up the first seven points the Lightning reeled off a 23-33 run led by Talbot and a red hot Ella Batish from long range. 13 of Talbot’s 22 points for the game came from the start.

The Lightning held sway through the second before Mia Murray started to catch fire before halftime – and the start of an incredible individual hand. Her seven points at the end of the quarter brought it back to 41-49 and game on. Murray continued to fire from long range but Mansfield matched her at the other end and setup a thrilling final term 71-72.

No team got out by anymore than six points with George putting in her own monumental performance as well. It was Borlase late though that gave the Lightning the chance to steal the game from the Boomers late putting the Lightning in front 88-91 with about two minutes left. The Boomers had several opportunities but with 41 seconds left Murray nailed the dagger but both teams made staggering turnovers and Borlase’s shot fell shot to send it to overtime.

The overtime saw the Lightning unable to buy a bucket while George who collected the league’s first triple double since 2013 (30 pts, 11 rebs, 10 ast) and Nelson-Ododa saw Lucas’s team once again just a little too experienced and execute better under pressure when it mattered over Hurst’s group.

What the numbers said

The Lightning matched it with the Boomers across 40 minutes of basketball and were unlucky to go down given the numbers. The only thing was the Boomers shot 54 percent from the field but the Lightning still put up 46 percent in this area. The Boomers took 24 shots from beyond the arc while the Lightning took 32 – Murray was the difference nailing seven of nine inch nails from deep.

Melbourne Boomers 106 (Murray 34, George 30, Nelson-Ododa 21, Wallace 13) defeated Adelaide Lightning 100 (Talbot, Mansfield 22, Whittle 14, Bell 12, Borlase 10, Brook 8) at the State Basketball Centre in Overtime

Adelaide Lightning vs Bendigo Spirit

Checkout the WNBL snaps from the Lightning’s game versus Bendigo Spirit

The Rundown

The “unlucky” Lightning got even more so with both imports Bell (later found out released but missing due to personal reason) and Monroe (ankle) out of the side with Borlase and Batish getting starts off strong recent performances.

They needed a strong start against the Spirit after some spirit crushing losses – the Spirit denied them that bursting out 2-14 attacking the keyway several times through Ally Wilson. The home side fought back through Talbot and gang with a 9-0 run. Both teams didn’t score for three and a half minutes before Mansfield broke the drought but the Spirit ascended to the lead at halftime with Maley now becoming the problem outrebounding the homeside with 16-15!

Hurst sent Borlase to Maley in the third quarter in one of the games big intelligent moves which helped even out the rebound count and the contest – the Lightning were there with a 51-57 margin at the end of three.

It was a false hope unfortunately as the Spirit piled on a 0-9 run in less than two minutes and the Lightning never recovered as Maley finished with 19 points and 24 rebounds.

What the numbers said

The Spirit had 19 second opportunities given to them which they converted to 23 points. The lack of inside presence for the home side was telling as highlighted by the 33 percent from the field.

Adelaide Lightning 66 (Talbot 21, Batish, Borlase 11, Cubillo 8) defeated by Bendigo Spirit 78 (Maley 19, Griffin, A Wilson 15, McKay, A Froling 11) at Adelaide 36ers Arena

Perth Lynx vs Adelaide Lightning

Checkout the WNBL snaps from the Lightning’s road game against the Perth Lynx

The Rundown

Taking momentum to Perth was important but with none to take from but rueing what might have been – the adjustment to time zone and match conditions was always going to be tough. Monroe’s returning though would bolster the Lightning and also bring back some sorely missed inside presence.

It was one of those games where both teams went bucket for bucket with the Lightning doing a great job containing Sami Whitcomb to one of nine beyond the arc – but the homeside opened up the game in the third quarter through Bibby, Ryan and Atwell to lead 61-49.

Bibby took over the final term and despite Monroe and Talbot keeping the scoreboard ticking the Lightning couldn’t overcome the Lynx in a tough double header to finish 2022.

What the numbers said

The Lightning scored 25 points across quarters two and three compared to the Lynx’s 43 points. Steph Talbot nearly broke George’s triple double record only weeks after it with 12 points, 10 rebounds and 8 assists.

Perth Lynx 82 (Bibby 25, Atwell 14, Scherf, Whitcomb 11, Sharp 10, Ryan 9) defeated Adelaide Lightning 72 (Monroe 23, Talbot, Whittle 12, Mansfield 11) at Adelaide 36ers Arena

Adelaide Lightning vs Townsville Fire

Checkout the WNBL snaps from the Lightning’s fourth win of the season versus Townsville Fire

The Rundown

In my rundown of the season – if the Lightning were to make top four their big run started at the beginning of 2023. What followed was the Lightning’s most complete performance of the season what I’d seen this team was capable of.

The Fire went with the Lightning early and led by a point at quarter time – Tianna Hawkins once again causing problems now with 44 consecutive points across five quarters of basketball against this team. The Lightning found their spark through Chelsea Brook with seven points in the second (who had been on a curve of upward form) helping engineer a 9-0 run as they took the lead 48-43.

The Lightning’s conscious defensive effort on Nicholson and Hawkins after halftime continued as Monroe began to insert her dominance while Talbot sneakily but also not had eight rebounds and nine assists at three quarter time – the Lightning holding court 65-57.

Then it was time for one of the favourites for Betty Watson Australian Youth Player of the year Izzy Borlase to drop 13 points in the last quarter to seal the Lightning’s most comprehensive performance of the season.

What the numbers said

The Lightning were superb across the board – 52 percent from the field, 50 percent from beyond the arc, dished 27 assists and only turned it over five times. They blocked six shots and scored 26 points from turnovers. five players cored eight points or more with two scoring twenty or more in Borlase and Monroe.

Talbot finished with three points but importantly 11 rebounds and 10 assists.

Adelaide Lightning 93 (Borlase 23, Monroe 21, Brook 16, Mansfield 15, Cubillo 8) defeated Townsville Fire 68 (Hawkins 20, Nicholson 14, Reid 13, McSpadden, Samuelson 9) at Adelaide 36ers Arena

Adelaide Lightning vs Sydney Flames

Checkout the WNBL snaps from the Lightning’s game versus Sydney Flames

The Rundown

There was pride on the line after the stirring win against the Fire and for a half it looked like that was going to continue…

Whittle came out with inspired purpose along with Talbot for an 11-2 run before she sustained a leg injury that would be much more serious than first thought. Mansfield also looked really switched on and after another run in the second quarter looked to have the Flames burnt leading 49-32.

Thats when it turned to disaster as Talbot didn’t come back on and the Flames launched an 0-18 run through import Joceyln Willoughby (who had been contained so well in their first game), Tiana Mangakahia and a sprinkling of Emma Clarke from beyond the arc. The Flames had a shock 61-62 lead with one quarter left.

You felt the Lightning were going to just find a way but despite charges from Borlase and Whittle on the scoreboard – the Flames who had looked in previous fortnight like they were ready to claim an upset scalp – held their cool under pressure and scored the upset win away from home.

What the numbers said

The Lightning looked good in all aspects up till halftime but the Flames turned the heat up on ball carrying and forced the Lightning into nine turnovers which resulted in 14 points in the second half. Willoughby finished with 21 points, eight rebounds and six assists after being held to just six in their first encounter.

Adelaide Lightning 77 (Borlase, Whittle 19, Mansfield 13, Monroe 11) defeated by Sydney Flames 81 (Willoughby 21, Mangakahia 16, Sjerven 13, Clarke 12, K Froling 11) at Adelaide 36ers Arena

Adelaide Lightning vs Bendigo Spirit

Checkout the WNBL snaps from the Lightning’s game versus the Bendigo Spirit

The Rundown

After the shock defeat to the Flames the Lightning’s task of making top four was starting to become a shaky path – and the Spirit coming off a shock loss of their own to the Caps came in ready for the fight.

Minus Talbot saw Brooke Basham with her first ever WNBL start but the away side quickly snapped into gear as Alicia Froling this time asserted herself on the Lightning to give the Spirit a 24-29 lead at quarter time. The Lightning fought back through Borlase but Ally Wilson joined in and turned up the pain on the Lightning with seven in the quarter and created 11 fast break points for her side – and a 31-52 lead at the half.

Although the damage had be done the Lightning fought hard for the remainder of the contest led by Whittle and Abby Cubillo despite Kelsey Griffin not getting out of second gear for her nine point third quarter. The sore point was Monroe picking up her fourth and fifth foul in a crazy minute after sitting the first half with three fouls as she sat the remainder of the game out after only nine minutes of play.

The Spirit held that cushion and cruised to victory dealing the Lightning a double blow in consecutive days.

What the numbers said

The Lightning apart from a struggling second quarter 7-23 were very competitive this one and it showed in the box score. They had 13 points from the Spirits’s 17 turnovers, 11 second chance points from 11 offensive rebounds and 37 points from the pine led by Whittle with an outstanding double double with 10 rebounds.

Adelaide Lightning 68 (Whittle 18, Cubillo 11, Borlase, Brook 8, Mansfield 7) defeated by Bendigo Spirit 84 (A Wilson, A Froling 18, McKay 17, Griffin 15, Maley 13) at Adelaide 36ers Arena

Townsville Fire vs Adelaide Lightning

Checkout the WNBL snaps from the Lightning’s game versus the Townsville Fire

The Rundown

Talbot was back and a season defining season and game were on the line.

The Fire came out red hot with 11-4 before Borlase and Mansfield cut it back to 17-15 at quarter time. Nicholson contained well last meeting was playing point guard and getting some buckets too but it was Karlie Samuelson not able to miss as she chalked up 13 in the first half with Talbot matching her step for step but the Fire took a handy 38-30 lead into the half.

Samuelson continued to find hot form as she broke the game open to as many as 20 points – the Lightning struggling to find answers and seeing their chances of finishing top four slipping away 68-48 with one to play. Whittle tried to ignite the momentum but the Fire answered every challenge as they snuffed out the Lightning’s last spark and left the remainder of WNBL23 season out of their hands.

What the numbers said

The Lightning allowed the Fire to shoot 50 plus percent from all areas and gave up 14 fast break points. They struggled to find scorers all night while the Fire had five players with nine or more points.

Townsville Fire 92 (Samuelson 29, Hawkins 21, Nicholson 15, Aokuso, Woods 9) defeated Adelaide Lightning 63 (Mansfield, Talbot 13, Borlase 11, Monroe 8) at Townsville Entertainment Centre

Although the chances of finishing top four rest on other results and a slim chance – the Lightning have an opportunity to finish still with a .500 record with six games to go including five against teams currently in the bottom four with them.

A fifth place finish would in my mind set them up for a solid preseason for WNBL24…

Catch all the basketball action Saturday night Jan 28 at 7:00pm at the Arena when the Adelaide Lightning play the Southside Flyers

NBL RD 16 – Sixers do not go into “sevens” with fate out of hands

It’s been a case of gone in 20 minutes in this NBL23 season for the Adelaide 36ers who after another five minute patch of inconsistent basketball find themselves now with the fate of the furious race to the finish out of their hands. Now they can’t afford to finish in anything put pole position in their final four matches including two against tonight’s opponent Melbourne United…

Gone in 20 minutes: The Sixers had their opportunities to control their destiny but 20 crucial minutes of self-inflicted wounds has taken away from them where they finish in the finals race  - Photo credit to news.com/NBL

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4-Minute Read

NBL ROUND 16

Adelaide 36ers vs Melbourne United

When: 7:30pm (ACDT), Saturday 21st January

Where:  Adelaide Entertainment Centre – The Ken Cole-seum

Broadcast: Kayo Freebies, ESPN, www.nbl.com.au

LTTM: Melbourne United 86 (Tucker 23, Rathan-Mayes 15, Peatling 11, Goulding 10, L Barker 9, Humphries 8) defeated by Adelaide 36ers 91 (Drmic, Franks 21, Cleveland 15, McCarron 12, Dech, Sotto 8) at John Cain Arena

SWOOP BACK IN HISTORY

Game 2 Grand Final Series 1998: The Ultimate Team of all-time!!!

It’s heritage round in NBL23 and the Sixers are paying tribute to their 1998 championship team that swept the South East Melbourne Magic 2-0 – highly regarded by many as the greatest team of all time assembled in the NBL.

That was until Phil Smyth’s men including Brett Maher, two-way superstar import Darnell Mee, the enigmatic but brilliant Kevin Brooks, the hardened duo of Martin Cattalini and Paul Rees and the support cast of Rupert Sapwell and John Rillie along with veterans Scott Ninnis and Mark Davis -took them down.

Brian Goorjan’s group was stacked with an import star guard in Clint McDaniel, hard-nosed gun guard Mike Kelly, young rising star of the time and possible NBA draftee Sam McKinnon, sharp shooting defence menace like his brother Frank Drmic, Tony “The Bear” Ronaldson and big man Brett Wheeler. Add some quality off the bench including veterans Andrew Parkinson and the ever reliable John Dorge.

Checkout the story below from the club documentary created over a decade ago which paints the picture…

Full credit to the video below to NBAussie Films

Make sure you watch from 1 hour 45 minute mark for the highlights of the NBL98 Grand Final Game 2

Key Matchups

Antonius Cleveland vs Rayjon Tucker    

“He sets the tone for this team” is a phrase I’ve heard echoed through the season about AC – that won’t be any different tonight. The alarming thing is in the Sixers crucial games his usage percentage has been low compared to his season average. That means the number of times the player was used while on the floor to contribute to the statistics. In the last six losses prior to the game against Brisbane on Thursday – 23 percent of ball usage went through AC compared to in wins 25.5 percent. He needs these numbers of usage these last four games if the Sixers are going to be any chance of winning.

Tucker meanwhile has transformed into as advertised by himself at the start of the season. Tucker in United’s run of seven wins of the last eight games is putting up 22.63 points per game, 5.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 59.9 field goal effectiveness. Its given United the edge on the floor having that contribution in place and again is the type of player the Sixers need to keep the ball out of the hands of.

Daniel Johnson vs Marcus Lee

DJ has to fire this one against United as if he can be aggressive in close against United and draw fouls – then perhaps their front court isn’t as strong without Humphries as back-up. The Sixers defensive rating for their front court has been poor in recent losses to add and it needs to raise its intensity. At the moment DJ, Sotto, Franks and Galloway average 111.25 points allowed per 100 possessions compared to one of the best defensive front court combinations in the Taipan’s Pinder, Hogg, Waardenburg and Majok Deng of 101.63 per 100 possesions.

Lee has lifted in Humphries absence in the starting five – since coming into it he’s at 10.6 points per game and 8.3 rebounds lifting by a couple in each area. He’s also in the top echelon for points conceded per 100 possessions with 100.1. Thats clearly resulted in United’s lift of fifth in the league in that category. We’ve all known its been the missing piece and to find it when the free agency market pickings were slim is credit to United and their mid-season decision making.

Anthony Drmic vs Xavier Rathan-Mayes

While Drmic is on the floor the Sixers still have their heartbeat – a 13 point average and some gritty diving on balls, boxing out for rebounds and playing hard he’s rarely failed at that this season. He’s a key part of the second unit for this group and against United needs to provide similar impact to his likely direct opponent off the pine in Rathan-Mayes.

That’s because Mayes return to the pine has ballooned his contribution yet again. He may be pigeon holing himself again as a sixth man but my goodness he is so good at it. He’s produced 58 points and 16 assists in the last four games from the pine and complements the United starting five.

THREE QUESTIONS TO SWOOP ON

Where has it gone wrong to take it out of the hands of the Sixers?  

Four five minute patches have shaped the fate of the Sixers and where they are at right now

  • The overtime against the South East Melbourne Phoenix in Round 5
  • The Round 10 home game last five minutes versus Perth Wildcats
  • The last five minutes against Cairns on new years eve in Round 13
  • Thursday night’s last five minutes of game against the Bullets

These four patches cost the Sixers four wins they should’ve gotten and didn’t because they were in winning positions at these stages of the game – that could have them in the six and creating their own fate.

But now its not…

Who is more desperate right now United or the Sixers?  

United have less wriggle room and have shown they are desperate under Vickerman. They’ve won their last four and are looking like they have their full squad minus Humphries on the floor at the moment.

We can only judge on what we’ve seen so far so United have the edge in the desperation stakes if it comes down to a sprint to the finish tonight…

Its early but what changes will the Sixers need in NBL24 to avoid this scenario again?    

Sometimes when you change things you have to start again and as much as the fans and the club no doubt have been disappointed with where they are – this is a situation where I’m going the opposite way and I’m keeping continuity in place for at least one more season simply cause I can’t see how change will benefit this team and coaching staff.

A few other teams are approaching the end of their “window” and my sources tell me the Sixers already have locked in for NBL24 Cleveland, Franks, McCarron, Dech, Marshall, Galloway with Sotto on a team option and Drmic on a mutual option (which I think he’ll take). Add Daniel Johnson back in and Hyrum Harris and that gives you ten if the Sixers persist with Sotto but your third import needs to be a back-up guard to McCarron and a big that can defend so if he’s avaliable a Marcus Lee type or Yanni Wetzell – local is better but I’m thinking putting the ball in Marshall’s hands off the bench means they can go get that big for NBL24.

So who wins?

Again its all about the start for the Sixers who have lost the first quarter in their last four games – and about smart offensive execution. I went through the Bullets game with a tooth comb and counted twenty plus times the Sixers had a one on one where someone like Clark, Cleveland, Franks or Drmic were going to have an open lane to the hoop as they already had the mismatch on about the second or third pass. They however took that extra couple of seconds to make a decision – and the Bullets closed the gap. That forced the Sixers into taking contested and rushed three point shots with pressure which in resulting trips down the floor saw them jack up three point attempts in transition with no flow in movement – a product of frustration no doubt.

To close the last bit of a season full of expectation – which unfortunately has not delivered on just that…

Expectation…

COD Prediction: United by 9 points

Catch all the action tonight at the arena on Cluch Radio with Tristan “TP” Prentice and our special comments guest whether you’re at the game or watching from home

Cluch Radio

WNBL RD 10 – Proud Lightning to conduct Flames and Spirit

The Lightning got the must win in a big time way against the Fire last week. With their pride on the line in more ways than one – backing up against the Flames and exorcising the Spirit to their fourth straight loss sets up a potential charge in the final weeks of the season…

In the name of...: The Lightning will not only have to live up to their "pride" in this week's double header but also fight hard on court in another season defining set of games led by Borlase and Monroe once again - Photo credit to WNBL

5-Minute Read

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WNBL ROUND 10

Adelaide Lightning vs Sydney Flames/Bendigo Spirit

When: 7:00pm (ACDT), Thursday 12 January and Saturday 14 January

Where:  Adelaide 36ers Arena (Formerly Adelaide/TS Arena – The Lighthouse)

Broadcast: Nine Now

STRIKE BACK IN HISTORY

Commander Camino sets up first quarter blitz to bury Flames in famous win (WNBL Grand Final 2007/2008)

A barnstorming opening stanza from the Lightning setup by guard Renae Camino saw them to one of their most famous victories over the Flames.

Adelaide and Sydney have had hotly contested matches since the 90s and into the 2000s and with the Lightning having not won a title since 1998 – the opportunity on the road against a strong Flames outfit presented itself. Not only with the Opals Camino but a lineup of Tracy Gahan, another former Opal in Erin Phillips, Jess Foley and the soon to retire Jenny Whittle while Captain Sam Woosnam at the time was retiring from the WNBL (But made a comeback in 2009). Sydney had Opals Natalie Porter and Kristen Veal along with 243 WNBL gamer Michelle Cosier, a superstar guard at both ends of the floor in Alicia Poto and a youthful Rachel Herrick.

The scene was set for both teams with Sydney having finished second with a 17-7 record and having upset Adelaide at their home in the Semi-Final 71-90 – The Lightning were primed to strike back hard and they did. They poured in 30 points in the opening quarter led by Camino (Grand Final MVP with 32 points, nine rebounds and three assists) at 57 percent from all over the floor and lit up the glass with 14-6 in rebounds. The Flames fought back in the second through Porter (23 points and seven rebounds) and Poto (16 points and nine rebounds) as they brought it back to 25-40 at the half.

The “Championship” quarter influenced by Whittle (eight points and nine rebounds) and Phillips (16 points and seven rebounds) saw the Lightning with a 52-64 and a comfortable 12 point lead with one to go. Both teams opened the flood gates in the final term as Sydney tried to open the game up to get back into it. The Lightning were having none of that as they matched them bucket for bucket led by Captain Woosnam (13 points and eight rebounds) and claimed their fifth championship in their club history.

Checkout the latest WNBL snaps from the Lightning’s last home game versus Melbourne Boomers

Key Matchups

Izzy Borlase vs Tiana Mangakahia/Ally Wilson    

Borlase inserted into the starting five has given the Lightning an increase at both ends of the floor and chemistry on the court. Since the departure of Kierstan Bell – she’s averaged 12 points, 2.3 rebounds and playing at the two and three position given the Lightning a different look at both ends of the floor.

Mangakahia meanwhile who had a quiet 15 points last time they met at the Lighthouse has been a big contributor for the Flames in recent matches. She’s logged 15, 10 and 15 in their last three games and needs to drop another 15 plus points for the Flames to be competitive in this one.

Wilson for the Spirit has been quietly accumulating under coach Kennedy Kareama – despite the Spirit’s recent decline of 0-3. She’s averaging 13 points per game along with 3.5 rebounds and 3.25 assists and will need to keep producing for the Spirit to get their team back on track after some spirit-breaking losses to Flyers, Boomers and Wednesday night’s upset to the Caps.

Jacinta Monroe vs Hannah Sjerven/Anneli Maley

Monroe is a must have in this year’s Lightning lineup and against both teams is the key to going 2-0 this week. Since her return against the Lynx – she’s produced an average a double double of 22 points and 10 rebounds. Her presence and smarts have allowed the Lightning offence to flow as well as stop the influence of the bigs at the defensive end for opposition.

A big that needs to fire for the Flames is Sjerven. A role player that simply needs to find her groove. She’s tracking north in her contributions with nine and six points in recent games as well as five rebounds in her last three outings. Against Monroe though – the Flames need her to double figure here in either category or at least prevent Monroe from impacting if they are to cause an upset.

Speaking of impacting – Maley monstered the Lightning memorably last time with 19 points and 24 rebounds! Its obvious but that can’t happen again and Monroe, Talbot and Borlase will need to spend some time on her at the defensive end to prevent giving up another nine offensive boards again…

 

THREE QUESTIONS TO STRIKE ON

What did the win against Fire mean for the Lightning?  

Not a huge amount right now in terms of record but huge in the context of season’s end. They are now tied 1-1 with the Fire but still have a big gap to make up as well taking care of the teams around them in the Flames and Lynx. It starts with rolling for 2-0 this week which sets up potentially a Fire team with a 7-4 record (with a win over the Flames likely) and the Lightning at 6-8.

Then it comes down to a huge game on the Friday night 20 January – where the Lightning could get even closer by claiming the series 2-1 and moving to 7-8 with the Fire then 7-5 and then it gets real interesting in the final weeks.

Are the Flames all just Willoughby?  

For much of the season yes but now they are starting to play some good quality WNBL basketball under Heal. Much like the Lightning their competitiveness has been there against teams with an average losing margin of 10.6 points whilst beating the bottom of the table Caps twice in back-to-back games. The WNBA import in those losses had 22 points (with three other Flames in Shyla Heal, Mangakahia and Keely Froling), 10 points (with Heal and Froling in double figures) and 16 points (with Heal and Mangakahia in double figures).

Its shows while there is a reliance on the star player – shutting just her down doesn’t equate to keeping the Flames out of contest.

Who’s the bigger danger Saturday – Griffin or Maley?    

It’s like choosing your favourite child – you can’t split it. Griffin came up big down the stretch while the MVP of last season destroyed the Lightning on the glass last time gifting the Spirit 23 second chance points.

Keeping both quiet is ideal but you have to lean slightly towards Maley given her recent form – but KG 23 needs to clamped down as well.

So who wins?

The Lightning showed against the Fire they can play the full forty minutes to compete and while they should take care of the Flames at home with favourable matchups – it will be no easy assignment given how competitive Heal’s Flames have been in recent times.

Saturday is a flip of the coin but the Spirit will be coming in on a shock 0-3 streak and be hungry to jump back into outright third as they chase the Flyers in second. The Lightning can really make a statement making the WNBL ladder real interesting and given what happens tonight I’ll leave my prediction for Saturday night ready to update below on the day of the game.

Update for Friday

The Lightning will rue that particular game on Thursday night letting it slip in the second half and even though they did – they could reverse it Saturday night against the Spirit.

It all comes down to the start like they did against several teams but weathering the storm of strong defence and offence has been difficult for the Lightning in WNBL 23. Containing that no doubt has led to a majority of their close competitive losses so addressing that will be key moving into the future but I’m not sure (and of course I’m hope they are wrong) that will be enough to overcome the Spirit…

COD Prediction: Lightning by 18 points over Flames and Spirit by 8 points