Past Panther Memories - The Warriors remain unbeaten in the Mens 2023 but the last team bring them down the Panthers will be looking invoke the memories of last year's decider - Picture by @allstarphotos_au/All Star Photos and NBL1 Central
3-Minute Read
Round 5 (Part 1)
Tuesday 25/04/2023
Woodville Warriors vs South Adelaide Panthers (St Clair – The Castle) – Kayo Freebies Game of the Week
Women (1:30pm)
Both these teams played out a much tighter affair then anticipated in the last round of the 2022 season. There’s always been a bit in the matchup and after the Warriors competitive showing against the Rockets Saturday night – we are likely to see some testing from both sides. The Warriors will look to dominate glass having amassed 55 on Saturday night and the Panthers collected 45 in response in their game. Similar to the Rockets game it’ll come down to how the guards matchup with Jordan Hunter and Jade Johnson finding some early rhythm together as a potent combo for the Panthers. The return of Ash Spencer today likely makes Hunter even more dangerous in her influence. It’s a big job for Chloe Purvis and Naomi Allotey to contain their influence as you feel the front court will break even in this one. That difference should be enough for the Panthers to get across the line in a much closer contest likely due to the event and magnitude of the day.
Key Stat – Jordan Hunter averages over 100 in offensive rating with Jade Johnson, Ash Spencer and Holly Forbes – she’s the architect once again of this year’s Panther out fit under Richard Dickel also averaging 6.8 assists per game top three in the league again!
COD Prediction: Panthers by 5 points
Men (3:15pm)
The rematch of last year’s Grand Final on the biggest stage in NBL1 Central 2023 – what more could you want, and it comes at another intriguing stage of the season. The Panthers were undone by the Eagles who broke their four-game streak over them while the Warriors continued their unbeaten start to the season just with a thrilling overtime win over the Rockets in a top three battle that is setup for an all-time classic. The Panthers were quelled by the Eagles ability to keep them off the offensive glass limiting their offensive rating by -30 and halving their second chance opportunities.
The Warriors have been “the balancers” and have balanced the ledger in all areas once again statistically in their control of the offensive end which makes them exceptionally difficult to guard anywhere on the floor. The defensive end of the floor is where they are most excelling as mentioned on the weekend and is a big part of their winning streak. If we look at last year’s Grand Final the point of difference was rebounding and the shooting percentage of 45 plus percent from the field – they key number to victory. Its billed as a classic for very good reason with both teams bolstering what were potent line-ups last year – and the stage is set for someone to come and grab this game again and you can’t go past the MVP of last year to get the Panthers across the line in a thriller.
Key Stat – Out of all the players in these teams the X-Factor is Dev McGee in 2023 – averaging three offensive rebounds per game, true shot percentage of 64.5 and a game score metric percentage of 13.3 which tells us “Total value” on a player’s statistical performance in a basketball game. McGee compared to last season is +5 rising up from 8.3.
COD Prediction: Panthers by 3 points
Norwood Flames vs North Adelaide Rockets – (The ARC – The Firedome)
Women (1:30pm)
This one has a bit more fire to it with WNBL experienced guards and current former teammates clashing in the battle of the burn between the Flames and the Rockets. The Flames bolster Ally Wilson and Sharna Thompson in this duel who have been elite for the Flames this season. Thompson nearly passed her career high Sunday afternoon falling one short of her 33 points in 2018 against the Tornadoes in the Apple Isle ##. Her shooting has added a bit of depth the Flames were lacking on their roster start of the season where crucially in wins they are +38 in scoring, +13 in field goal percentage, +8.3 in points from turnovers and +10.8 in assists.
The Rockets have turned it around since their loss to the Sabres a few weeks back with the combination of Mansfield and Basham starting to settle. The key number is the assists which in losses there is a differential of eight – it shows you the importance of sharing the offensive spread around in this team and that’s when they look at their best. The larger amount of experience at the higher level on the floor gives the Rockets the ups in this one but Ally Wilson can also be a one-woman wrecking ball in this match to cause the upset too.
Key Stat – The Flames are allowing 16.5 assists per game – that could come back to haunt them in todays clash
COD Prediction: Rockets by 7 points
Men (3:15pm)
Both teams come into this one in varying form with one having a run of some luck and the other again not doing too much wrong statistically. The Flames have found a bit of their identity in 2023 via transition at speed basketball. In their wins have averaged 11.3 point from turnover and 14 fast break points – nearly double and triple from their losses.
The Rockets need to be all about the defensive end having conceded an average of 99 points per game in their three losses this season. They aren’t that far off finding whatever formula it is that’s needed and it can be lead through Durrell McDonald finding some extra touch. He’ll take on Jack Stanwix in this one and has averaged 11 points and importantly one steal. Gaining enough possessions and stopping the Flames transition game is key for the Rockets – who out of the two teams look the better form one despite the losses early.
Key Stat – The Rockets average 8.6 steals and will need double figures to overcome the Flames fast transition play.
COD Prediction: Rockets by 10 points
West Adelaide Bearcats vs Southern Tigers – (Port Adelaide – The Bearcat Cave)
Women (1:30pm)
Another game that’s going to tell us a lot of where both teams are really at. The Bearcats have some serious concerns at the moment in some key areas they were on-top of 2022. Smashed in assists, giving up more than 25 turnovers and 20 plus points through them and shooting the ball at around low 30 percent. This could be the game where its reversed or continues the trend.
The Tigers took care of business on Saturday night but the scoring issues still remain a question mark. The Tigers need points from Martin and some others to support the Halls medal form of McKendrick and some more recent encouraging form of Brittany Hernandez. Something has to give for the Bearcats with their roster – they are too good to not turn it around and I think today they’ll have had some extra time to think about it since Thursday and grab an important win.
Key Stat – Despite the Tigers offensive wows – the Bearcats are giving up 75.6 per game.
COD Prediction: Bearcats by 6 points
Men (3:15pm)
The Bearcats are rolling right now and did so right over the top of the Sabres on Thursday night. The addition of Olbrich has created additional movement and space which is clearly reflective in their results. The concern for the Tigers is how do they guard the full line-up of the star line-up.
The takeout from Saturday night is that the Tigers under Freer will be up and down like a yo yo but it’s a fun ride. Plenty of dunks, athletic play in spurts but its more about whats going on behind the scenes that will eventually translate to results. For now, though plenty of ball needs to go through Jimma Dau especially if Fabian Johnson doesn’t return this afternoon. There’s a huge chasm between these two and I think this one might be one of the bigger margins today.
Key Stat – In their wins this season – Nyberg’s team is +10 in points from turnovers…
COD Prediction: Bearcats by 18 points
Sturt Sabres vs Eastern Mavericks – (Springbank – The Cave)
Women (1:30pm)
The Sabres were sharp on Thursday night plus have the bonus of being rested a few extra days that could play a part in this one. Tim Shortt’s unit is now rated #1 in field goal percentage (40.5), free throws made (14.6), points from turnover (16.4), assists (21.6) and steals (14.8) – the keys to their success.
The Mavericks were competitive for large parts of the Flames game Sunday and are still a work in progress. Watching live I was really impressed with Taylah Levy and the control she has with ball in hand this season. It also could be a great opportunity for some younger players to push their case for the future with plenty of teams still not settling on their final combinations moving forward. Sophie Miles and Airlie Ramsey look the next ones to step up averaging 18.5 minutes between them. In saying that I think the Sabres with the extra couple of days rest and evenness across all positions will get a comfortable win.
Key Stat – Despite their losses the Mavericks are looking after the ball well giving them opportunities to be competitive – they average just the 14.8 turnovers per game.
COD Prediction: Sabres by 15 points
Men (3:15pm)
This one is a toughie to call with both teams having valid cases for wins – even with one more historically favourable. The Sabres stats show at their best then at their worst is a large gap right now. The average is a differential of anything between 5 and 25 showing the Jekyll and Hyde nature of this year’s model. Not having Rigoni (undisclosed temporary injury) and Daly is hurting no double with the depth of this team and they’d love them back very soon.
The Mavs may be one of the few teams in the league that may have the ability to turn around the disappointment of Saturday very quickly. They were quite even with only the giving up 20 assists the huge issue. They also missed 25 triples to finish with 11 percent – this team can hit some big outside shots when they are going. I just have a sneaky suspicion we are going to get a James Legan special who hasn’t broken out for a big one this season and has enjoyed playing the Sabres in the past. The Mavs might get the upset here.
Key Stat – Rebounding has been a big problem for the Sabres this season averaging 43.4 – their centres and forwards have collected 4.5 per game.
COD Prediction: Mavericks by 2 points
Forestville Eagles vs Central District Lions – (Wayville – The Nest)
Women (3:00pm)
The Eagles did plenty of things right against the Panthers on Saturday night – but no doubt it might have taken a bit of fuel out of them. A 45-point first half was terrific but after getting overrun in the second half – keeping pressure on the glass for 40 minutes still remains my concern. They are lacking a little more inside presence to support Rachel Hines – the lack of Katia Stamatelopoulos is telling now as well.
The Lions have been playing patches and have shown signs a win might not be too far around the corner. In last year’s corresponding fixture with arguably less talent on the floor – they got within a point of the Eagles. There’s no Sam Simons to pour 40 points on them and with Tiahna Sears and Imani Guy in the top ten in the competition for rebounds. If the Lions can be in the game at three quarter time – I think the games they previously played will play a part in how much energy was expended and the Lions may get the upset win to break their drought.
Key Stat – The Eagles are ninth in the competition for rebounds with 40.5 per game.
COD Prediction: Lions by 2 points
Men (5:00pm)
The Eagles responded from their loss to Sturt by snapping their streak against the Panthers. It was done by committee, but the head of the Eagle was once again Adam Doyle. I pointed out that having the one assist was the key to the Sabres win but the Panthers let him get back on top of this area. Taking out Starling was key as well with Machar locking him down with his Dean Vickermann learnt new tricks.
The Lions were fun and athletic to watch on Saturday night, but two key things stood out to me about the Lions. Sunday Bol and Branden Jenkins looked after the basketball plenty only giving up the six steals in the match as well as minimal turnovers of nine. They won plenty of possessions to make it all work and Ngor Nai added some big stats as well. The Eagles should have the matchups down pat though and continue their form, but the last game of ANZAC day has sometimes thrown up the unexpected result.
Key Stat – Machar’s improvement at the defensive end is highlighted in his game score at 13.1 compared to 14.9 in 2022 but is getting more scoring opportunities as will with an average of 18.6.
COD Prediction: Eagles by 12 points
We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in Round 5 between the Woodville Warriors and the South Adelaide Panthers on Kayo and Kayo Freebies Tuesday ANZAC Day.
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