Eye of the Tiger - In their wins this season the second placed Tiger Women are shooting the three ball at over 30 percent and keeping turnovers to under 13 per game - Picture by Picture IT Sports Photography
3-Minute Read
Round 12
Saturday 24/06/2023
Southern Tigers vs Norwood Flames – (Morphett Vale – The Cage)
Women (6:30pm)
LTTM: Norwood Flames 75 (Thompson 24, Kerridge 21, Wilson 10, Akuen 8) defeated Southern Tigers 67 (McKendrick 21, Hernandez 17, Stasinowsky 14)
Opening game of the night is second versus third with the split only a couple of buckets in it.
Plenty has change since that last loss for the Tigers with the Tigers in at the time #8 in the league (68.2) with 30 percent of their total inside shots coming from inside the paint. To add to that only McKendrick had made more than 10 attempts inside the paint – these were telling numbers. But the addition of Yaeger into this team has swung that around – now the Tigers are ranked #5 for points per game and still #2 for opponents points per game. Its amazing how Yaeger with an average of 20.7 per game has reinvigorated this Tiger team but not surprising. The attempts inside paint is interesting to see too – now four players have over 40 attempts plus for the season. McKendrick has also missed three games recently showing their shaping as the contender to take on the Sabres by season end.
The Flames look set to fire now but having taken care of some teams with them and underneath them now they run of Tigers, Warriors, Eagles, Panthers and Rockets to finish the season. All are still in vital contention but also present a chance to see how far this Flames unit can go. Last time against the Tigers they forced them into 24 percent from beyond the arc and forced 19 turnovers out of them. On the flipside the Flames in their wins this season are +21 in points, +8 in points from turnover and +6 in assists – that’s the Ally Wilson effect but you can add Jada Rice and Jorjah Smith to that as well now.
A tight one to call when it comes down to the line, so I’ll take the home side at full strength likely but it’s going to be one of the games of the night – they’ll do just enough to get the split as well knowing Matt Clarke’s urgency down the stretch.
Key Stat – The eye of the Tiger team in their wins is shooting the three ball at over 30 percent and keeping turnovers to under 13 per game.
COD Prediction: Tigers by 9 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: Norwood Flames 104 (Stanwix 40, D Webber 20, Smith 17, Lycett 14) defeated Southern Tigers 99 (Johnson 36, Dau 23, Green, Logan 13, Thompson 12) in OT
One of the surprise contests of the season the last time they met with both teams taking the game to overtime – but plenty has changed for both sides since the last time they went all the way to the final shot at the ARC.
The Tigers last time they met their opponents were averaging 12 turnovers and concede 11 steals telling you winning more possession in the game was the key moving forward. In their strongest performances opposition had 13 turnovers and conceded 13 steals and shot lower field goal percentages. The Tigers are sustaining their defensive pressure for longer as the season rolls on showing marked improvement in this group.
The Flames have had a good recent run after their last shock loss to the Lions but putting away lower table sides has been a challenge for a team trying to prove they can claim up into the top five. The Bearcats game gives you a good indicator what their peak is – 56 percent from the field, 44 percent from beyond the perimeter, 13 steals, 5 blocks and 18 points from turnovers. The Flames need a good start in this one because if the Tigers get a bit of momentum then we may end up with another tight finish and extra basketball.
My gut says the Flames will take this one sometime in the fourth with one too many additions to this team – but I won’t count out the home side from getting an upset win.
Key Stat – The Flames struggle to get lit up against teams down the lower end with the Flames averaging 9-point margin per game* (minus last weeks matchup against the Mavs)
COD Prediction: Flames by 7 points
South Adelaide Panthers vs Central District Lions – (Mitchell Park – The Jungle)
Women (6:30pm)
LTTM: Central District Lions 59 (Guy 20, Sears 15, De La Cerda 10) defeated by South Adelaide Panthers 103 (Forbes 26, Johnson 18, DeFrancesco, Stewart 11, Watson 10, Spencer 9)
I’m gonna say it – I’m really worried about this Panthers team.
The Panthers have dropped important games throughout the season and are now walking a tightrope – and they may not be able to just fall in this season. After the Lions tonight the Rockets, Tigers, Flames and Warriors await with no guaranteed wins there so getting this one tonight will be important. The key glaring stat is the scoreboard in their losses – it sits at 63.3 per game and is clearly not enough to win games of basketball if your playing top of the ladder defence.
The Lions are in as good as nick as they’ve ever been to take another upset scalp. The form line the last month is 1-3 with field goal percentage of 35 percent and 15 assists. It shows they are moving the ball and making better decisions at the offensive end of the floor. On their given night they can play a full game of defence and like their win against the Flames – just need it all to stick at once consistently. One more gun player on this current roster could move things forward significantly for them in 2024 but for now they are every chance to upset the Panthers.
Despite all that until they do so – the Panthers have a red-hot record over them without even looking at the numbers likely averaging about a 40 plus win against them the last five years. The home side wins but this will be one of their closer encounters they have but simply the Panthers just need to win this one…
Key Stat – The Panthers concede 67.6 per game which is top three in the league but have given up 75.8 per game in their losses this season.
COD Prediction: Panthers by 11 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: Central District Lions 94 (Jenkins 39, Baker 24, Sapwell 9) defeated by South Adelaide Panthers 97 (Starling 35, Hoppo 21, Johnson 17, Johns, McVeigh 8)
Another team needing a win after a couple of bad recent losses is the Panthers however getting back their lineup has been a key aspect to their success this season.
The Eagles confirmed their breaking of the streak with their win against them last week and have highlighted some key areas they may not be quite as much on top of as normal. An additional six turnovers showed the ball security has been a struggle this season.
They couldn’t have played much better last time they met against the reigning champs and only a Star-ling bomb separated defeat and victory. The Lions then were bottom three for a majority of the key numbers but were top three in winning possession through steals averaging 16.5. They are now fourth in three-point percentage (32.5), points from turnovers (11.1), points from fast break (9.1), offensive rebounds (13.6) and fifth in overall scoring with 85.6. They are a scoring machine but are also giving up plenty of points with 91.9 per game – it’s a part of where they are at as a group as Sapwell described recently in his interview on the Hoopsters NBL1 Central basketball show.
The Panthers should get an important win but the Lions are more than capable of grabbing this scalp as well.
Key Stat – In their championship year the Panthers won four of their games by less than two baskets – since that Lions escape in 2023 it’s been one win and two losses by less than two baskets – slim margins are playing a part in their season.
COD Prediction: Panthers by 8 points
West Adelaide Bearcats vs North Adelaide Rockets (Port Adelaide – The Bearcat Cave)
Women (6:30pm)
LTTM: North Adelaide Rockets 89 (Basham 30, Mansfield 20, Zbierski 14) defeated West Adelaide Bearcats 76 (Aquino 21, Coleman 17, Simmons 10, Anderson, Fejo 8)
The Rockets are coming hard now and starting to put together some good form heading into the final phase of the season. Now they’ve climbed to #6 in the league for assists with 12.5 but in their wins its 21.2 per game. The combo of Basham and Mansfield were at it again but for them really to solidify this one tonight they need both Tayla Corrigan and Erica Meyer to fire.
The Bearcats pushed the Sabres hard for a half last week but were overwhelmed in the second half 22-46. Its hard to put your finger on where they are at but as a part of the 7-6 logjam they are still in the race with a run of the Eagles, Lions, Mavericks and Tigers to finish so potentially they have wins ahead if they can sneak this one.
The Rockets are in the slightly better form but Aquino does look a game breaker if the Bearcats were to win at home tonight – I’ll take the Rockets just though overall.
Key Stat – In 2023 the Bearcats average in their key losses are 32.5 points in the paint and 6.8 second chance points.
COD Prediction: Rockets by 15 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: North Adelaide Rockets 54 (Harrap 15, Aliir, McCalop 11) defeated by West Adelaide Bearcats 112 (DeSantis 22, Roxburgh 19, Stock 18, Drmic 16, Olbrich 12, McCarron 10, Spear 9)
Did the stream of this last match get deleted from the Rockets?
Maybe but it did highlight some issues with the defence and conceding high amounts. When the offence dried up after quarter time against the Warriors last week – it showed all be it small gap between the top five and next five currently. It is also with this group their best chance of winning which is a double-edged sword in some ways. Defence seems to be the thing that the Rockets are working hard on as noted but are still conceding an average of 101.7 and rebounding is -6 in losses in 2023.
There’s a reason why I haven’t mentioned the Bearcats much in this one as at the moment they have all the pieces in place, and we are just waiting on what they do at the business end of the season, but they’ll still need to respect the Rockets firepower and athleticism.
The Bearcats should win this one even minus Mitch McCarron but stranger things have happened before in these games.
Key Stat – The Bearcats blitzed the Rockets out of the blocks with 5-26 in the first term and ended up with 18 triples at 44 percent last time they met – fast starts and a good clip from beyond the arc have been a key since that game to the Bearcats record.
COD Prediction: Bearcats by 13 points
Eastern Mavericks vs Woodville Warriors – (St Francis Mt Barker – The Shooting Gallery)
LTTM: Woodville Warriors 83 (Fransson 21, E Winter 18, Perkas 16) defeated Eastern Mavericks 74 (Otto 23, Levy 19, Dumesny 10, Formby 8)
Women (6:30pm)
The Mavs competed super hard against the Flames for three and a bit quarters minus Otto, Taylor and Levy. Despite those players missing with various issues the Mavs have upped their offensive production to 67.8 points – the goal in the last phase of the season is to try and get the consistency up into the 70s to really give their defence a chance to close the gap. The top teams are averaging 60-70 points conceded per game with the Mavs sitting 83.9.
The Warriors are #1 in offensive rebounds with 17.8 but average 19.8 turnovers in their losses. That’s been the key to being in winning positions but also where its fallen over – as Katherine Perkas noted this week on the Hoopsters NBL1 Central show. The Mavs average 43 rebounds per game so creating those second chances will assist the Warriors I think to getting that win tonight.
Key Stat – The Warriors love to solidify their presence in the paint – in their wins this season they’ve amassed an average of 54 points per game there…
COD Prediction: Warriors by 12 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: Woodville Warriors 128 (Stepney 34, McGee 18, Meldrum 14, Janssan 13, Jackson 11, Maiorana 9) defeated Eastern Mavericks 89 (Hemphill 22, Legan 19, Raneburg 17, Rentoy 15)
The Mavs continue to move themselves off the bottom in 2023 in scoring, second chance points (#4 in the league), rebounding, assists (#5 in the league) and most importantly turnovers – in fact they are conceding only the 15.1. The Mavs are still a straight-shooting team in 2023 – they still take a large percent of their shots from the middle three and have made 132 which is #3 in the league in 2023. They are not an easy team to play and have gone close to upsetting a few sides in recent times and could still finish just outside the top five.
The Warriors are still #1 in the league for keys such as bench points, least turnovers conceded (13.5) but have dropped out of some other categories. They have a tough run coming up and need to win this one desperately to keep ahead of the rest – but the Mavs have been sharp in recent times but I’m trusting in their ability to deliver under pressure with experience and game breakers like Stepney and Humphries.
Key Stat – Just like the last time they met – when the Warriors turn up the defence they only give up 33 percent inside the deep paint, 15 percent from the right wing and 12.6 percent from the left-wing triple.
COD Prediction: Warriors by 14 points
Sturt Sabres vs Forestville Eagles – (Springbank – The Cave) – Kayo Freebies Game of the Week
LTTM: Forestville Eagles 64 (Freer 18, Simons 16, Annetts 14, Hines 8) defeated by Sturt Sabres 85 (N Mathews 18, Prosser 16, Brazel 14, Williams 13, Z Walker-Roberts 8)
Women (6:30pm)
The Sabres key weapon is their on-ball pressure averaging 13.5 steals per game (#1 in the league). It’s been unsettling many teams so the team that’s going to be strong against them is the one that doesn’t concede turnovers. The Eagles do give up 18.2 per game on average from their style of play.
In their wins this season the Eagles average 74.4 points, 44.4 rebounds, 13.9 turnovers and 19.9 assists. Against the season favourites in the Sabres last time it was 64 points, 35 rebounds, 20 turnovers and nine assists.
A huge win for the Eagles would prove their credentials and backup the win over the Panthers but its hard to see them upsetting the unbeaten Sabres.
Key Stat – The Sabres are the first team in 2023 to guarantee their spot in the finals this season – does that play a part in the finish to their season?
COD Prediction: Sabres by 5 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: Forestville Eagles 78 (Rathjen 22, Hulland, Mays 14, Machar 11, Doyle 10) defeated by Sturt Sabres 81 (Forbes, Rasmussen 21, Brennan, Nash 11, Smith 8)
The Sabre rebounding and ability to restrict their opposition at the offensive end earnt them the chance for the win last time they played the Eagles and they proved it.
The Eagles on the other side had their offensive ability was slashed by the Sabres through denying ball movement (-8 in assists), denied deep paint touches for scores as well as the wing triples and left corner. Adam Doyle had just one assist last time they played after averaging 5.5 per game in all their wins to that point.
The Sabres are a huge chance here to claim the split and the upset, but the Sabres run after this one has the Eagles needing this one a little more in what should be a terrific clash in the Sabres heritage evening on the Kayo Freebies Game of the Week.
Key Stat – The Sabres continue to be miserly this season conceding 77 points per game.
COD Prediction: Eagles by 4 points
We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in Round 12 between the Sturt Sabres and the Forestville Eagles on Kayo and Kayo Freebies tonight.
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