Top Six Decides - It's a huge week in the men's draw with six teams all in the top six playing each other - that will go a long way to deciding how the table looks by seasons end - Pictures by Picture IT Sports Photography/Image of Malith Machar and Jawan Stepney by Kelly Barnes/AllStar Photos
3-Minute Read
Round 11
Saturday 17/06/2023
Forestville Eagles vs South Adelaide Panthers – (Wayville – The Nest)
Women (6:15pm)
LTTM: South Adelaide Panthers 78 (Johnson 22, Hunter, Forbes 13, Stewart 12, DeFrancesco 11) defeated Forestville Eagles 71 (Freer 18, Annetts 15, Simons 13, Hines 10)
The Eagles are floating just outside the top six while the Panthers are sitting in third just to be fair doing enough to stay there – but both teams have interesting wins against teams they’ve played this season. The Eagles six wins have come against Lions twice, Mavericks twice, Rockets twice (minus Mansfield the first time) and Tigers (minus Yaeger and first game of season). Apart from the Rockets the second time around and me always counting the first games of the season always as an outlier in seasons – The Eagles need a big scalp to prove they can make this top five. The missing link has been clearly Borlase who’s only played two minutes of the season in a blink, and you’ll miss it moment – but there is clearly some conservative nature with her preparation for the U19 Gems upcoming July 15 with departure Tuesday July 4. There is a small possibility in her preparation she takes the floor tonight and is much needed for the Eagles if she does…
The Panthers meanwhile have beaten the Mavericks twice, Bearcats, Lions, Eagles, Warriors once and Flames once (minus Jada Smith) – they are yet to beast a team above them on the top of the table which could either be concerning or they are still building towards their best. Is tonight the night they do this – I’m not sure but coming out with a convincing performance would go a long way to alleviating the Panthers fans worries…
Key Stat – The Panthers rode the second half of Hannah Stewart home last time – she had all 12 of her points in the second half comeback.
COD Prediction: Panthers by 22 points
Men (8:00pm)
LTTM: South Adelaide Panthers 68 (Johnson 24, Starling 10, Barton 9, Hoppo 8) defeated Forestville Eagles 69 (Doyle 17, Machar 16, Gould 9. Mays 8)
The first of the “Top Six Decides” with two playing four on the table and after the Eagles won their last encounter against the Panthers halting a four-game losing streak to them in 2022 – It’s all on the line for tonight’s second encounter at the Nest. The Eagles have been taking care of business recently but what will sting in recent memory is their losses to the Rockets and the Bearcats – the last top of the table team they beat was the Panthers in their last meeting.
The Panthers haven’t had their full arsenal on the court but it sounds like they could almost be back to full strength soon but will it be tonight? The Panthers have a decent run home after this with the Lions, Rockets, Tigers, Flames and Warriors to finish but no game can be taken for granted. It’s an ideal night to setup the remainder of the season for them with a bounce back win and claim the split over the Eagles.
My gut says the Panthers still have the secrets to unlock the Eagles and with DJ back I wonder who from the Eagles can guard him effectively and whether they can stop Starling twice in a row. The Panthers get this one in a tight one and claim an important split.
Key Stat – The Eagles last time they met crucially kept the Panthers and Starling off the glass with 44-53 in rebounding.
COD Prediction: Panthers by 4 points
West Adelaide Bearcats vs Sturt Sabres – (Port Adelaide – The Bearcat Cave)
Women (6:30pm)
LTTM: Sturt Sabres 87 (Williams 22, Brazel 14, Prosser 10, Close 8) defeated West Adelaide Bearcats 55 (Fejo, Simmons 14, Aquino 8)
Are the Bearcats having a mid-season revival or is it just fleeting having grabbed wins over the Warriors and Panthers with their recent changes. The worry is that the Flames torched them in the final term finishing with 20 turnovers and conceding 16 steals in a 9-27 quarter. Tonight, against the Sabres we’ll find out much more of where last year’s defending champions are.
The Sabres have walked the cliff edge the last couple of games and no doubt someone will get this team in the L column soon – but their performance against the Rockets last round was mighty impressive. Not only that but likely they’ll get Brazel for the games against the top teams before she jets off to U19 in Spain early July. This could be the last night they have her and she’ll be key again along with Williams who destroyed the Bearcats last time.
There’s a slight chance of it all came together the talent the Bearcats have could knock them off but it’s hard to ignore the form of the Sabres – so they’ll continue their winning streak to 13…
Key Stat – The Sabres in their last encounter smashed the Bearcats in pressure causing 29 turnovers and turning that into 21 points…
COD Prediction: Sabres by 4 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: Sturt Sabres 59 (Rasmussen 18, Turnbull 13, Forbes 10) defeated West Adelaide Bearcats 99 (Drmic 17, DeSantis 16, Olbrich 16, McCarron 15, Spear 11, Stock 10, L Hunter 8)
One playing three on the ladder will be much closer than their last encounter in the second of the “Top Six Decides” clashes for the weekend. The Bearcats will welcome back McCarron to make things much more difficult to counter for the Sabres.
The Sabres must address the smacking in every category last time they met but a good starting point would be the rebounding. They simply need to keep Olbrich and Drmic off the glass who dominated last time they met. Sabres are number three in competition for total rebounds per game but number six in offensive boards. Their centres in Jamie Smith and Tobias Dowdell have 92 between them number five and six in the line-up. They need big games to cause the upset tonight.
But the Bearcats are on fire at the moment but suffered a Sunday afternoon declawing which they’ll be keen to erase quickly – a quick bounce back is likely but if anyone can inflict two losses in a row it’s the Sabres top class defence that might just be able to do it.
Key Stat – The Bearcats won every major category when they played the Sabres last time – and shot the ball at 59 percent from the field to add salt to the wounds…
COD Prediction: Bearcats by 11 points
Woodville Warriors vs North Adelaide Rockets (St Clair – The Castle)
Women (6:30pm)
LTTM: North Adelaide Rockets 85 (Basham 31, Meyer 18, Mansfield 15) defeated Woodville Warriors 76 (Fransson 22, Winter 20, Perkas 13, Purvis 11)
It’s seven versus eight on the table but the great divide is potentially here between these teams between the teams fighting for finals spot and those who sit towards the bottom. Tom put it in perspective there are just six wins separating fifth and last – that’s how much closer the NBL1 Central Women’s season has been. The Warriors have been the almost team this season as I’ve said more than once – needing the polish and flair to finish off the work they’ve done in their defence and glass keeping through their line-up. Fransson and Winter are a real key again in this team having controlled the glass last time they met 55-47
Another Rose Gold medallist returns in Mansfield for the Rockets after the break looking to continue her red-hot form before she left – but partner in crime at the Lightning Basham is the one that’s been leaving a trail of destruction in her absence. Basham has elevated to another level both in scoring and multiple aspects of her game. Last they met they hit nine triples and scored 16 points from turnovers captalising on all the Warriors errors – that was the difference between the teams in the finish with a margin of 11.
Traditionally these games have been close over time but both teams will offer up their full-strength line-up for the first time in the season at a crucial junction for both teams. That WNBL experience of Mansfield and Basham will however I feel get the Rockets across the line needing to stay with the top five – and could be fifth with a win by weekend’s end.
Key Stat – Basham’s form line is white hot right now with the Sabres loss an outlier averaging in her previous five with 29.5 points at 61 percent, 6.5 assists and three steals.
COD Prediction: Rockets by 7 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: North Adelaide Rockets 71 (McCalop 22, Aliir 16, Watson 10, Harrap 9, Carlisle 8) defeated by Woodville Warriors 72 (Stepney 20, McGee 18, Meldrum 12, Ficken 8) in Overtime
It’s five versus six to conclude the top six battle for Round 11 with both teams known for putting on a classic with two distinctive styles of basketball. The Warriors grind and go style has come back in drips and drabs but keeping personnel on the floor to make this happen has been the challenge. The Warriors will need all their soldiers onboard but will be led by Jawan Stepney who is and must be once again the general of this team – is going to need a few more 25 plus point games for the Warriors to find their mojo and up their percentages once again.
The Rockets are just that – all out offence and in some ways I’m here for it. The Rockets out of the top six currently are the only team to have given up more than four figures in points this season (1083) but are the third highest scoring team in the league with 1048. It’s a style of basketball fraught with risk and reward but the reward in recent weeks has been felt by Durrell McDonald who’s been amongst the numbers. He’s averaging 24 points at 64.67 percent, 8.3 assists and 3.6 steals in his past three and been a big part of their massive two wins against the Panthers and Eagles.
It’s a game that’s going to decide potentially who finishes in the final by season end if it comes down to splits – this one is as tight as it gets. My heart says Warriors will find their grind and go; my head says the Rockets will continue their explosive ways just.
I must go with the head at this stage – mainly cause that’s where I’ve made most of my predictions ironically…
Key Stat – If the Warriors are to get the win they need to as well get back to their efficient offence that has been a struggle in 2023 – they are ranked sixth in the league with 43 percent and are down minus six in percentage from beyond the arc.
COD Prediction: Rockets by 2 points
Central District Lions vs Southern Tigers – (Starplex – The Den)
LTTM: Southern Tigers 83 (McKendrick 30, Hernandez 18, Beeche 14, Stasinowsky 11, Martin 8) defeated Central District Lions 69 (Sears 28, De La Cerda 16, Guy 14)
Women (6:30pm)
It’s never straight forward with the safari cup rematch with the Lions pushing the Tigers hard last time they met. The difference this time is that the Lions big three in De La Cerda, Sears and Guy are in peak form for the season now and some other Lions are starting to come for the run. Tonight’s a great opportunity for Sarah Deng to break out and do something special – she’s been threatening and if Fejo plays could also be another spark plug.
The Tiger in the room is the return of McKendrick likely after some mid-season management well played by the Southern unit. McKendrick monstered the Lions last time but now also will have to deal with Yaeger and in form Stasinowsky. The Tigers still have to play some tough teams in the Flames, Sabres, Panthers, Rockets and Bearcats – they simply can’t afford to slip up in this one.
That makes me think this one will be even tighter than last time as the Lions continue to build on their win from last round…
Key Stat – McKendrick’s return should be alarm bells for the Lions – she could not be stopped with 19 first half points to finish with 30 points, 11 rebounds, four assists and two huge blocks last time they met…
COD Prediction: Tigers by 6 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: Southern Tigers 80 (Dau, Thompson 19, Deng, Green, Logan 10) defeated by Central District Lions 104 (Jenkins 29, Baker 20, Bol 16, Nai 15, Garang, Sapwell 9)
The Lions have a chance to win two in a row and you’d think they’ve scored the ideal team to play against – but as Rupert Sapwell shared on the Hoopsters NBL1 Basketball Show he’s not taking anything for granted. “We are a young team that sometimes plays some ordinary defence and offence” to paraphrase what he said but is well worth a listen back. The Lions with a fourth win can put themselves as a spoiler across the final part of the season playing some disruptive junky defence and difficult to contain offence.
Tigers are much improved in all aspects of their game from the last time they met – and no doubt fancy themselves. They showed plenty against the Woodville Warriors and deserved to get their first win of the season and at some point possibly in the last few weeks in the season – they could be at the point where they are more motivated than the opposition to fill that W column. This is their last game against a team in their bottom side of the table and if the 15-year-old can turn it on again in Alex Dickeson and the rest can ride the enthusiasm – you just never know.
But I think the defining factor is Branden Jenkins who I feel will find a way to muscle this side across the line – just…
Key Stat – The Lions broken them game open in the second half by clocking 15 steals and scoring 19 points from turnover against the tyro Tigers.
COD Prediction: Lions by 3 points
Sunday 18/06/2023
Norwood Flames vs Eastern Mavericks – (The ARC – The Firedome) – Kayo Freebies Game of the Week
LTTM: Eastern Mavericks 77 (Otto 20, Levy 17, Bradley, Formby 15, Dumesny 8) defeated by Norwood Flames 94 (Thompson 32, Wilson 19, Kerridge 18, Akuen 17)
Women (3:30pm)
A Sunday afternoon matinee worth your time to view and potentially a huge homecoming for a rose gold medallist.
The Flames are setting themselves to run the table as many have predicted – with Wilson now all clear for the run home against the Tigers, Warriors, Eagles, Panthers and Rockets to finish can stamp their claim with a convincing home performance against the Mavs.
Don’t write off the Eastern Mavericks thought who have been steadily building through the season and have enough talent on their roster to cause opposition problems a plenty. Putting scoreboard pressure on the Flames is the key having only averaged 67.4 per game and given up 83 points per game – they also need to increase their output in moving the ball with 13.8 assists per game.
The Flames were impressive without Wilson against the Bearcats, and you’d expect them to chalk up an important home win to keep with the race for the top five – no slip ups here this one…
Key Stat – The Flames recent rise does coincide with the recruiting of centre Jada Rice – with her and Alek Akuen averaging 7.5 rebounds per game in their wins.
COD Prediction: Flames by 18 points
Men (5:15pm)
LTTM: Eastern Mavericks 70 (Hemphill 14, Robertson 13, Rentoy 12, Legan 11) defeated by Norwood Flames 95 (Nuangki, Stanwix 16, Smith 15, McNamara, Webber 12, Lycett 11, Goodall 8)
A contest that could be closer than most expect with an opportunity for both teams to sneak closer to the top five. The Flames are coming off a roasting of the Bearcats but for a team with plenty of fire – they’ve been very hot and cold this season. Beating the top side was preceded by dropping to a lower table side the night before you’re just not sure if they are there abouts this season. Isaac Miller-Jose is a handy addition but there’s been plenty of pieces thrown together late for this outfit.
The Mavs are the different story with a well-gelled team that are battling hard, they are having one of their best seasons in the past five years already meaning they still have plenty of say in shaping the final makeup of the table. There’s a potential set of wins ahead of this one with the Warriors, Lions and Rockets up next if they can score this upset – a record of 7-9 with two games left in the season is an improbable yet possible run but they would have to nail this one to stoke the momentum.
Late Sunday afternoon games are always known for throwing up the upset – its out of the usual Saturday routine for both teams and I just get the feeling the Mavs have been building in their past two games playing some high-quality patches. I think they’ll string it together and get the unlikely upset in this one.
Key Stat – In the Flames losses this season they’ve given up an extra four assists to their opposition and two extra steals per game – it’s not much but it’s been costly in close losses – three within a couple of baskets.
COD Prediction: Mavericks by 3 points
We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in Round 11 between the Norwood Flames and the Eastern Mavericks on Kayo and Kayo Freebies Sunday afternoon.
Please continue to support SA basketball news and features content being written as well as national/international with the Pick and Roll – with our influx of work we are making content all free to read but need constant contributions to make this happen. $5 a month is all we are asking – If not keen to subscribe then please message to receive direct debit details how you can keep these quality features being produced
CROSS OVER DRIBBLE 