Are West best again in 2024 or better??? - photo by AllStar Photos/Kelly Barnes @allstarphoto_au
*Denotes back to back fixture over consecutive days
Are the Tigers one of the best 10th placed teams we’ve seen in recent years?
Their record and the eye test says so… The tenth placed team has been the Tigers in 2023 (0-18), Mavericks in 2022 (2-16), Mavericks in 2021 (0-18), Mavericks in 2019 (3-17) – the talent in these rosters pales in comparison to the 2024 Tigers lineup with new coach Michael Lake. There was always going to be a team in tenth that probably usurps much of the bottom teams of previous seasons with a number of factors playing a role including availability of players, college returnees, finance, time and place. The Tigers are ranked ninth in overall rating with 113.3 while eighth in offensive rating at 102.3. They have gettable splits to the Panthers (-4), Lions* (-6), Bearcats (-5), Sabres (-10) in the second half of the season – they should get more than the two wins in the season they have somewhere which will confirm the above…
Will the extension of Ahmad save the North Adelaide Rockets season?
The defensive end for the Rockets will be the truth turner… We know the Rockets can score the ball but finding the right rotations by utlising the bench to enact some defensive tenacity is potentially what Ahmad Al Ani will bring for the remainder of the season. With coach Michael Rogers likely gone now – the door now opens for his assistant to bring his defensive nous to this team and fully extend the use of the pine. In his two wins already this season the Rockets are +22 in defence and +18 in offence alongside it. They are five assists better with a willingness to share the ball and more active with hands with +7 in steals. I know it’s only the Lions and Mavericks they’ve beaten but it’s a sign things may turn to gain something out of season where on paper they could’ve contended for the top five.
Will the close losses come back to haunt Whitmore’s warriors?
They’ve put themselves into the log jam… A string of close losses to Bearcats (-9), Mavericks* (-4), Panthers (-4), Flames (-10) and Lions (-8) have hurt the chances of the Warriors making the top five with a 3-5 record. All games they were in the fourth quarter but were not able to get across the line down the stretch. In their losses this season they are -12 in points with -15 in three point percentage and their opponents have scored 96 points on average in those losses. They are the areas the Warriors may rue by season’s end but on the flip side they can still turn around these splits with the run ahead.
Can Koen help elevate the Lions to a top five position?
It’s not just him but he’s a big factor… I suspect he’s already polled a couple of Woollacott medal votes in his return and the Lions are better defensively with him in the lineup. Their opposition averaged 42.5 percent across the two games he’s been there compared to their season average 48.5 percent. Add Clayton Jewell and Magok Manyang in his junior year coming off 9 points and 6.1 rebounds with MACU athletics returning shortly – the Lions can make their run. The splits are gettable too with the Mavs (-2), Bearcats* (-1), Sabres (-12), Panthers (-13) – the Lions need to clearly string it together defensively but run and personnel wise are in a position where they could grab a top five spot.
Is the magic running off the Mavericks?
Perspective is the key thing here… This Mavs team have been ultra impressive in the first half of the season but after a flourishing start of 4-1 they are now 4-5 sitting at the crossroads. It’s been a long time since the Mavs men have tasted even this many wins in a season going back to beyond 2015 where the Mavs have finished dead last five of the last six seasons. If Meakin and the Mavs are to turn it around while closing out games is a must – it’s lifting in second chance points -3 in losses with overall rebounding down -7. Essentially it’s the little things but even a couple more wins for the season should have Mavs fans content they are competing now – but also feel an opportunity could be lost after not capatilising on their incredible start…
Are the flickering Flames starting to burn?
They’ve won three out of their last four… My early prediction as a dark horse in 2024 has started to find their groove but it took a bit longer than I thought for them to get there. However at 4-5 and with splits still within grasp Tim Odell has his group finally gelled with a flexibility a lot of other teams don’t have. With a core of Stanwix, Harrap, IMJ and Hemphill – he then can roll a combination of Morrow, Osborne, McNamara into the starting five depending on needs. This gives their roster a greater flexibility than most. They are dangerous at home with five of their nine games at the furnace with the Lions (-5), Bearcats (-16), Warriors (+10) still gettable but the matchup away with Mavs at Mt Barker looms the pivotal clash of the season for who get’s there and who falls short – lock in 29 June as must watch game…
Are the Bearcats better than the championship side of 2023?
On paper YES but only back to back championships will answer this… They have 625 games of NBL experience on the floor this season compared to 489 let’s start with that. Numbers wise the Bearcats in 2023 averaged 97.9 points and conceded 81 points per game with a net overall rating of 19.6. In 2024 since their full team arrived they’ve averaged 104 per game, conceding 89.2 with a net rating of 6.6 but likely higher since the last five games of having their full team. While giving up a huge amount of points offensively this Bearcats team is potent and if Nyberg can get them gelling defensively in the second half of the season – look out everyone as back to back you can almost stamp down – but only almost at this point.
Is Jeremy Smith the saviour and if he isn’t, who needs to be “man” alongside star Starling?
This player for me makes or breaks the Panthers getting all the way to the end… Smith is currently engaged in a ruthless five game finals series in Austria with his UBSC Graz taking on Oberwart currently 1-1 with game three today (23 May), game four on 27 May and Game five on 30 May – therefore the latest he’ll be here fixture wise is maybe the Southern Tigers on June 1 or the double header weekend on 15/16 June which will give him anywhere between 7-8 games which should be enough to qualify him. If he’s not able to make it, much rests on the shoulders of Tom Kubank (16.2 points), Ricardo Martin (7.7 points) and Jarryd Hoppo (6 points) to lift their input on the scoreboard. All three have potential to step-up otherwise the furthest this team I feel they can go is the preliminary final.
How do the Sabres contain the star power of the top teams when it counts?
It’s a bit alarming after another one-sided half of basketball on their record isn’t it… To do it once would seem by accident, to lose twice would seem like carelessness to paraphrase a James Bond villain of the 70s – but it’s happened thrice now for the Sturt Sabres against star laden teams. The first half against the Bearcats of 31-64 is just the tip of the iceberg and it happened in the 2023 Preliminary Final against the Bearcats with a 12-25 opener which turned into a 37-54 halftime lead never usurped. Go back further and you find in the 2021 when they lost to the star studded North Adelaide Rockets team 69-89 and again they gave up 17-30 in the first quarter and 11-36 in the second quarter to be down 26-66 at the main break. What will help is the incoming latest 36ers signing Ben Griscti who I think will be just as important to Sturt as Lachlan Olbrich was to the Bearcats last season. At 211 cm and with a stretch the floor game from beyond the perimeter where in his last college season he averaged 38 percent. The combination of Daly, Forbes, Rigoni, Dowdell and Griscti looks remarkably better – but I think it now could be more mental for the Sabres when it comes down to it…
How are the Eagles better than 2023 and are they preparing for a finals campaign with a difference?
In every aspect it should be noted… The key changes made no doubt discussed between Greg Mays and coach Andy Simons at the end of the season as shared on the SA Shotclock – they identified key aspects to make sure they got across the line. One aspect is that the Eagles are not so reliant on Adam Doyle in 2024. In 2023 Doyle in wins was 18.2 points and eight assists – in 2024 it’s 9.5 points and 6.9 assists. That translates to the Eagles being harder to guard this season with less reliance on one player to keep the ball moving and working for each other. The other change is Uche Dibiamaka for Malith Machar – while two different players here is what is significant in favour of the Eagles. Machar had an overall rating was 12 with a contribution of 16.3 points but down four points in their losses, 1.4 in triples per game made and 8.6 rebounds, For Dibiamaka it’s 15.9 points but did not drop his contribution in their loss, 1.2 in triples and 5.4 rebounds so while they’ve lost a bit in rebounding it’s been stepped up collectively by DJ, returning Fiston Ipassou and Mays going even bigger in 2024. Again the optics actually support the numbers with his style of play exactly what Simon’s side needs to take the next step towards championship re-contention come finals time.
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