Author: Tristan Prentice

Are West best again in 2024 or better??? - photo by AllStar Photos/Kelly Barnes @allstarphoto_au   

*Denotes back to back fixture over consecutive days

Are the Tigers one of the best 10th placed teams we’ve seen in recent years?

Their record and the eye test says so… The tenth placed team has been the Tigers in 2023 (0-18), Mavericks in 2022 (2-16), Mavericks in 2021 (0-18), Mavericks in 2019 (3-17) – the talent in these rosters pales in comparison to the 2024 Tigers lineup with new coach Michael Lake. There was always going to be a team in tenth that probably usurps much of the bottom teams of previous seasons with a number of factors playing a role including availability of players, college returnees, finance, time and place. The Tigers are ranked ninth in overall rating with 113.3 while eighth in offensive rating at 102.3. They have gettable splits to the Panthers (-4), Lions* (-6), Bearcats (-5), Sabres (-10) in the second half of the season – they should get more than the two wins in the season they have somewhere which will confirm the above…   

Will the extension of Ahmad save the North Adelaide Rockets season?

The defensive end for the Rockets will be the truth turner… We know the Rockets can score the ball but finding the right rotations by utlising the bench to enact some defensive tenacity is potentially what Ahmad Al Ani will bring for the remainder of the season. With coach Michael Rogers likely gone now – the door now opens for his assistant to bring his defensive nous to this team and fully extend the use of the pine. In his two wins already this season the Rockets are +22 in defence and +18 in offence alongside it. They are five assists better with a willingness to share the ball and more active with hands with +7 in steals. I know it’s only the Lions and Mavericks they’ve beaten but it’s a sign things may turn to gain something out of season where on paper they could’ve contended for the top five.               

Will the close losses come back to haunt Whitmore’s warriors?

They’ve put themselves into the log jam… A string of close losses to Bearcats (-9), Mavericks* (-4), Panthers (-4), Flames (-10) and Lions (-8) have hurt the chances of the Warriors making the top five with a 3-5 record. All games they were in the fourth quarter but were not able to get across the line down the stretch. In their losses this season they are -12 in points with -15 in three point percentage and their opponents have scored 96 points on average in those losses. They are the areas the Warriors may rue by season’s end but on the flip side they can still turn around these splits with the run ahead.       

Can Koen help elevate the Lions to a top five position?

It’s not just him but he’s a big factor… I suspect he’s already polled a couple of Woollacott medal votes in his return and the Lions are better defensively with him in the lineup. Their opposition averaged 42.5 percent across the two games he’s been there compared to their season average 48.5 percent. Add Clayton Jewell and Magok Manyang in his junior year coming off 9 points and 6.1 rebounds with MACU athletics returning shortly – the Lions can make their run. The splits are gettable too with the Mavs (-2), Bearcats* (-1), Sabres (-12), Panthers (-13) – the Lions need to clearly string it together defensively but run and personnel wise are in a position where they could grab a top five spot.

          

Is the magic running off the Mavericks?

Perspective is the key thing here… This Mavs team have been ultra impressive in the first half of the season but after a flourishing start of 4-1 they are now 4-5 sitting at the crossroads. It’s been a long time since the Mavs men have tasted even this many wins in a season going back to beyond 2015 where the Mavs have finished dead last five of the last six seasons. If Meakin and the Mavs are to turn it around while closing out games is a must – it’s lifting in second chance points -3 in losses with overall rebounding down -7. Essentially it’s the little things but even a couple more wins for the season should have Mavs fans content they are competing now – but also feel an opportunity could be lost after not capatilising on their incredible start…     

Are the flickering Flames starting to burn?

They’ve won three out of their last four… My early prediction as a dark horse in 2024 has started to find their groove but it took a bit longer than I thought for them to get there. However at 4-5 and with splits still within grasp Tim Odell has his group finally gelled with a flexibility a lot of other teams don’t have. With a core of Stanwix, Harrap, IMJ and Hemphill – he then can roll a combination of Morrow, Osborne, McNamara into the starting five depending on needs. This gives their roster a greater flexibility than most. They are dangerous at home with five of their nine games at the furnace with the Lions (-5), Bearcats (-16), Warriors (+10) still gettable but the matchup away with Mavs at Mt Barker looms the pivotal clash of the season for who get’s there and who falls short – lock in 29 June as must watch game…

   

Are the Bearcats better than the championship side of 2023?

On paper YES but only back to back championships will answer this… They have 625 games of NBL experience on the floor this season compared to 489 let’s start with that. Numbers wise the Bearcats in 2023 averaged 97.9 points and conceded 81 points per game with a net overall rating of 19.6. In 2024 since their full team arrived they’ve averaged 104 per game, conceding 89.2 with a net rating of 6.6 but likely higher since the last five games of having their full team. While giving up a huge amount of points offensively this Bearcats team is potent and if Nyberg can get them gelling defensively in the second half of the season – look out everyone as back to back you can almost stamp down – but only almost at this point.

Is Jeremy Smith the saviour and if he isn’t, who needs to be “man” alongside star Starling?

This player for me makes or breaks the Panthers getting all the way to the end… Smith is currently engaged in a ruthless five game finals series in Austria with his UBSC Graz taking on Oberwart currently 1-1 with game three today (23 May), game four on 27 May and Game five on 30 May – therefore the latest he’ll be here fixture wise is maybe the Southern Tigers on June 1 or the double header weekend on 15/16 June which will give him anywhere between 7-8 games which should be enough to qualify him. If he’s not able to make it, much rests on the shoulders of Tom Kubank (16.2 points), Ricardo Martin (7.7 points) and Jarryd Hoppo (6 points) to lift their input on the scoreboard. All three have potential to step-up otherwise the furthest this team I feel they can go is the preliminary final.

                      

How do the Sabres contain the star power of the top teams when it counts?

It’s a bit alarming after another one-sided half of basketball on their record isn’t it…  To do it once would seem by accident, to lose twice would seem like carelessness to paraphrase a James Bond villain of the 70s – but it’s happened thrice now for the Sturt Sabres against star laden teams. The first half against the Bearcats of 31-64 is just the tip of the iceberg and it happened in the 2023 Preliminary Final against the Bearcats with a 12-25 opener which turned into a 37-54 halftime lead never usurped. Go back further and you find in the 2021 when they lost to the star studded North Adelaide Rockets team 69-89 and again they gave up 17-30 in the first quarter and 11-36 in the second quarter to be down 26-66 at the main break. What will help is the incoming latest 36ers signing Ben Griscti who I think will be just as important to Sturt as Lachlan Olbrich was to the Bearcats last season. At 211 cm and with a stretch the floor game from beyond the perimeter where in his last college season he averaged 38 percent. The combination of Daly, Forbes, Rigoni, Dowdell and Griscti looks remarkably better – but I think it now could be more mental for the Sabres when it comes down to it…       

How are the Eagles better than 2023 and are they preparing for a finals campaign with a difference?

In every aspect it should be noted…  The key changes made no doubt discussed between Greg Mays and coach Andy Simons at the end of the season as shared on the SA Shotclock – they identified key aspects to make sure they got across the line. One aspect is that the Eagles are not so reliant on Adam Doyle in 2024. In 2023 Doyle in wins was 18.2 points and eight assists – in 2024 it’s 9.5 points and 6.9 assists. That translates to the Eagles being harder to guard this season with less reliance on one player to keep the ball moving and working for each other. The other change is Uche Dibiamaka for Malith Machar – while two different players here is what is significant in favour of the Eagles. Machar had an overall rating was 12 with a contribution of 16.3 points but down four points in their losses, 1.4 in triples per game made and 8.6 rebounds, For Dibiamaka it’s 15.9 points but did not drop his contribution in their loss, 1.2 in triples and 5.4 rebounds so while they’ve lost a bit in rebounding it’s been stepped up collectively by DJ, returning Fiston Ipassou and Mays going even bigger in 2024. Again the optics actually support the numbers with his style of play exactly what Simon’s side needs to take the next step towards championship re-contention come finals time.   

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It's a mixture of youth and experience that has seen the Forestville Eagles emerge as a dark horse in 2024 - Photo supplied 

*Denotes back to back fixture over consecutive days

Is it really a case of “GO BIG” or go home for the Woodville Warriors?

Stack ’em up!!! A change in minutes for the starters plus a much longer lineup was the significant change the Warriors made in their previous encounter against the Lions. Import Ida Andersson’s move to the point guard yielded 14 points (averaging 6.9 in the season) on four of eight beyond the arc (made average of one at 23 percent this season) allowing her space to create and utlise off-guard screens. It also created space for Holly Forbes to go to work at the offensive end with 28 points and 13 rebounds (averaging 15 points and 11 rebounds). The longer lineup sprinkled with Natalia Lalic and Naomi Allotey was able to be a nuisance in full-court pressure defence and with incoming 6’2 Molly Whitmore and 6’4 Eliza Joynes – the success in the second half of the season is in the length and height of the personnel on this roster.     

Was the Sturt game the turning point defensively for the Bearcats?

We’ll see very soon… As Molly Coleman spoke about on the SA Shotclock, the Sturt game “felt like them” defensively the Bearcats. After averaging the third most conceded points with 74.6 and a field goal percentage of 39.4 in eight matches – the Bearcats kept the Sabres to 62 points and 30 percent from the field. The Bearcats run coming up is Panthers, Warriors, Lions*, Mavericks* then meet the Sabres again on their home floor. They could win a majority of these and set themselves up for the last few rounds of the season as they take on the teams with them and above them on the table.            

Who can elevate the Mavericks points per game in the second half of the season?

It’s R and R for the Mavs… Although rest and recovery with a busy schedule will be important for the young Mavs – it’s time for Airlie Ramsey (9.8) and Emmy Roach (5.8) to start hitting that scoreboard a lot more to support Formby and Morris. The Mavs average 52.2 points per game and while defensively solid – putting the ball in the hole will be key to staying competitive in the second half of the season. The two R’s look the most likely with Ramsey scoring 16 points against the Rockets last outing at 42 percent and putting up 14 attempts (Up from 12 per game). For Roach with time at an experienced Sturt Sabres team she’s currently putting up an average of 7.2 attempts per game – against the Rockets she put up nine. If both of these can add another 15-20 points between them on average then 70 points per game may be enough to snare some games if they can keep up the intense defence that coach Kelson is instilling in them.      

Are the Flames the most threatening team outside of the top five right now?

I’ll admit I’ve swung both ways on this one! Personnel wise yes they are a dangerous team but now with coach Richard Dickel being released and replaced by last year’s championship coach in Will Smith – I’m not so sure. The wounded Tigers snarled and showed their experience and nous against the young Flames who’d been on a mini rise the last week – it was a missed opportunity for the Flames to show their credentials. The run ahead for the Flames is Lions, Rockets, Panthers*, Eagles* and then Tigers on their home floor at the furnace. If they are a legit finals contender with this roster – playing a majority of the top five will tell us very quickly whether they are. The splits are all mostly gettable with Rockets (9 points behind), Lions (6 points behind), and Tigers (6 points behind) which will play a factor as well.     

Can the Tigers score enough points to be a legitimate championship threat?

The key pieces setup for the season missing are hurting… This is a situation where injury has hurt the Tigers postseason opportunites and it’s showing in a key area – the scoreboard. The Tigers are averaging 69.1 points per game in 2024 compared to their championship season in 2021 (77.1), 2022 (82.3) and 2023 (75.7). In some ways the absence of a scoring gun in Morgan Yaeger is hurting but it’s deeper than that. Not having their key recruit Sophie Kerridge (12.5ppg in 2023) and veteran Mollie McKendrick (19.3ppg in 2023) and Lightning sharp shooter Bianca Stasinowsky missing the majority of the season are huge holes Matthew Clarke is having to fill. The top scorer for the Tigers is import Regan Schenck with 15.8ppg while an improvement from Abby Beeche certainly has helped cover some gaps with 10.4ppg herself. 

They are still one game behind everyone else and the break in the season arrived at the exact time they needed it – so don’t take your eye off the Tigers just yet.    

Do the Panthers lack perimeter presence?

It’s a Panther perimeter problem… If they are to be considered a threat for the championship they need to be able to find a way to produce more scores from beyond the arc at a higher percentage. While Ash Spencer (41 percent) and Sammy DeFrancesco (8 attempts per match) are the greatest threats in this area – no one else on this Panthers roster has averaged more than two makes and five attempts per match. Defences have been able to shut this production down beyond the arc in recent matches but it showed up like daylight with De Fran missing – the Panthers forced to shoot outside by the Eagles with 22 attempts taking their overall field goal percentage to 29 percent. 

From looking at their roster Rosie Williamson looks a likely answer to find a third outside threat – she has shown in her time at the Tigers she has a crisp outside shot. While looking into the Panthers reserves – Amelia Richardson stands out and could see some more minutes in the second half of the season with 23 triples made in 10 matches. With Darcy Rees incoming and adding more paint presence – addressing the perimeter problem needs to become a focus for her and the bigs to be able to used to full advantage.    

Are the Eagles now a dark horse in 2024?

They are surprising and have a continuity I like… They have built their season well like a well-constructed Lego model that has some structure, has some nice part usage and now will pop before our very eyes making them now a legit contender. Led by the young Jess Simons and Maddy Freer – a now experienced Adelaide Lightning and junior star coach in Georgia Crouch has really brought together a tough squad. The blend of experience with the Brett’s of Aimee and Kelsey gelled with an outstanding junior in Hannah Gardiner (averaging 7.3 points and 4.9 rebounds in her first full season) then adding the likes of King, Stamatelopoulos, and veteran Cara Annetts – brings you a well balanced constructed lineup. They also get Gabi Vidmar back soon too – it’s all shaping nicely for the Eagles with the improvement in that offence likely to rise in the second half of the season.    

Does Sydney Brown give the Sabres the dynamicness they’ve missed the past couple of seasons?

It’s hard to compare the pair… I want to preface this by saying that Mikayla Williams is an outstanding player who has won the Halls medal twice in two seasons and BMW has placed the Sabres on the final lap of the championship race multiple seasons. Brown does however give a different dynamic to the Sabres which makes them harder to defend. She stretches the floor as an outside threat but doesn’t haul in as many rebounds as Williams did (4.7 compared to 11.5). The translation is essentially overall for the Sabres rebounding is 41.7 in 2024 compared to their 45.1 rebounds in 2023 and 25 attempts per game in 2024 compared to 23 per game in 2023. While not a huge amount of difference numbers wise – the optics seem to show the change could be beneficial for the Sabres. Only time will tell if this proves to be the change they needed to make by “robbing Peter to pay Paul.”    

Can the Rockets cover the absence of Mansfield and Batish for the second half of the season?

They’ve shown they can so far…  and they are going to have to go further with Mansfield now qualified for the Paris Olympics with the Gangurrus 3×3 team and Batish still out for some time. The savvy recruiting of Genna Anderson was a master stroke from “Ironman of North“ Brenton Johnston and the minutes provided by Badenoch, Shannon Webber, Kelsey McKay and Abbey Jones have covered those gaps. It’s Brooke Basham however that has doubled her contribution overall with her 24.4 points at 51 percent, 5.6 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game almost covering two players herself as is Jordyn Freer with 13.9 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.1 assists. They should be top two by the season’s end and set themselves up for whatever they have roster wise ahead of them. 

Can the Lions continue to temper expectations to keep the run rolling?

It’s an overwhelming yes now… and here’s why – it’s not just the impressive big time wins, it’s the scrappy, ugly ones they’ve gotten as well. On paper the depth looked strong but bringing it all together while staring a history of cellar dwelling the past 12 years is a lot to overcome. They’ve done that with an 8-1 record as it stands with plenty of favourable splits – they are in the box seat even if they don’t finish first now to secure a finals position. Preseason we suspected they’d be competing and now its confirmed. The only things that can get in the way of the Lions charging to the finals is themselves and a clean bill of health – but they’ve shown they can cover enough to still be a top five finisher now.

And that’s why I held on getting on them until I saw a couple of these things in person…

YOU’VE DECIDED – PITCH TO THE PUBLIC 

It takes 4 hours a week to write, research and produce our content but we want to write extra content this next few months so we thought we’d pitch to the public

Thanks to contributors we can go ahead with

“The Powerhouses of SA School Basketball” (Looking at the last five to ten years of school basketball)

Production and research will begin on this one shortly

Four new $24 Shotclock subscribers will have the remaining of piece produced on the topic of

“SA Schools shine on Gold Coast” (Australian Schools Championships 2024)

Another four new $24 Shotclock subscribers or contributors directly will have that piece also done for production

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