It's a mixture of youth and experience that has seen the Forestville Eagles emerge as a dark horse in 2024 - Photo supplied
*Denotes back to back fixture over consecutive days
Is it really a case of “GO BIG” or go home for the Woodville Warriors?
Stack ’em up!!! A change in minutes for the starters plus a much longer lineup was the significant change the Warriors made in their previous encounter against the Lions. Import Ida Andersson’s move to the point guard yielded 14 points (averaging 6.9 in the season) on four of eight beyond the arc (made average of one at 23 percent this season) allowing her space to create and utlise off-guard screens. It also created space for Holly Forbes to go to work at the offensive end with 28 points and 13 rebounds (averaging 15 points and 11 rebounds). The longer lineup sprinkled with Natalia Lalic and Naomi Allotey was able to be a nuisance in full-court pressure defence and with incoming 6’2 Molly Whitmore and 6’4 Eliza Joynes – the success in the second half of the season is in the length and height of the personnel on this roster.
Was the Sturt game the turning point defensively for the Bearcats?
We’ll see very soon… As Molly Coleman spoke about on the SA Shotclock, the Sturt game “felt like them” defensively the Bearcats. After averaging the third most conceded points with 74.6 and a field goal percentage of 39.4 in eight matches – the Bearcats kept the Sabres to 62 points and 30 percent from the field. The Bearcats run coming up is Panthers, Warriors, Lions*, Mavericks* then meet the Sabres again on their home floor. They could win a majority of these and set themselves up for the last few rounds of the season as they take on the teams with them and above them on the table.
Who can elevate the Mavericks points per game in the second half of the season?
It’s R and R for the Mavs… Although rest and recovery with a busy schedule will be important for the young Mavs – it’s time for Airlie Ramsey (9.8) and Emmy Roach (5.8) to start hitting that scoreboard a lot more to support Formby and Morris. The Mavs average 52.2 points per game and while defensively solid – putting the ball in the hole will be key to staying competitive in the second half of the season. The two R’s look the most likely with Ramsey scoring 16 points against the Rockets last outing at 42 percent and putting up 14 attempts (Up from 12 per game). For Roach with time at an experienced Sturt Sabres team she’s currently putting up an average of 7.2 attempts per game – against the Rockets she put up nine. If both of these can add another 15-20 points between them on average then 70 points per game may be enough to snare some games if they can keep up the intense defence that coach Kelson is instilling in them.
Are the Flames the most threatening team outside of the top five right now?
I’ll admit I’ve swung both ways on this one! Personnel wise yes they are a dangerous team but now with coach Richard Dickel being released and replaced by last year’s championship coach in Will Smith – I’m not so sure. The wounded Tigers snarled and showed their experience and nous against the young Flames who’d been on a mini rise the last week – it was a missed opportunity for the Flames to show their credentials. The run ahead for the Flames is Lions, Rockets, Panthers*, Eagles* and then Tigers on their home floor at the furnace. If they are a legit finals contender with this roster – playing a majority of the top five will tell us very quickly whether they are. The splits are all mostly gettable with Rockets (9 points behind), Lions (6 points behind), and Tigers (6 points behind) which will play a factor as well.
Can the Tigers score enough points to be a legitimate championship threat?
The key pieces setup for the season missing are hurting… This is a situation where injury has hurt the Tigers postseason opportunites and it’s showing in a key area – the scoreboard. The Tigers are averaging 69.1 points per game in 2024 compared to their championship season in 2021 (77.1), 2022 (82.3) and 2023 (75.7). In some ways the absence of a scoring gun in Morgan Yaeger is hurting but it’s deeper than that. Not having their key recruit Sophie Kerridge (12.5ppg in 2023) and veteran Mollie McKendrick (19.3ppg in 2023) and Lightning sharp shooter Bianca Stasinowsky missing the majority of the season are huge holes Matthew Clarke is having to fill. The top scorer for the Tigers is import Regan Schenck with 15.8ppg while an improvement from Abby Beeche certainly has helped cover some gaps with 10.4ppg herself.
They are still one game behind everyone else and the break in the season arrived at the exact time they needed it – so don’t take your eye off the Tigers just yet.
Do the Panthers lack perimeter presence?
It’s a Panther perimeter problem… If they are to be considered a threat for the championship they need to be able to find a way to produce more scores from beyond the arc at a higher percentage. While Ash Spencer (41 percent) and Sammy DeFrancesco (8 attempts per match) are the greatest threats in this area – no one else on this Panthers roster has averaged more than two makes and five attempts per match. Defences have been able to shut this production down beyond the arc in recent matches but it showed up like daylight with De Fran missing – the Panthers forced to shoot outside by the Eagles with 22 attempts taking their overall field goal percentage to 29 percent.
From looking at their roster Rosie Williamson looks a likely answer to find a third outside threat – she has shown in her time at the Tigers she has a crisp outside shot. While looking into the Panthers reserves – Amelia Richardson stands out and could see some more minutes in the second half of the season with 23 triples made in 10 matches. With Darcy Rees incoming and adding more paint presence – addressing the perimeter problem needs to become a focus for her and the bigs to be able to used to full advantage.
Are the Eagles now a dark horse in 2024?
They are surprising and have a continuity I like… They have built their season well like a well-constructed Lego model that has some structure, has some nice part usage and now will pop before our very eyes making them now a legit contender. Led by the young Jess Simons and Maddy Freer – a now experienced Adelaide Lightning and junior star coach in Georgia Crouch has really brought together a tough squad. The blend of experience with the Brett’s of Aimee and Kelsey gelled with an outstanding junior in Hannah Gardiner (averaging 7.3 points and 4.9 rebounds in her first full season) then adding the likes of King, Stamatelopoulos, and veteran Cara Annetts – brings you a well balanced constructed lineup. They also get Gabi Vidmar back soon too – it’s all shaping nicely for the Eagles with the improvement in that offence likely to rise in the second half of the season.
Does Sydney Brown give the Sabres the dynamicness they’ve missed the past couple of seasons?
It’s hard to compare the pair… I want to preface this by saying that Mikayla Williams is an outstanding player who has won the Halls medal twice in two seasons and BMW has placed the Sabres on the final lap of the championship race multiple seasons. Brown does however give a different dynamic to the Sabres which makes them harder to defend. She stretches the floor as an outside threat but doesn’t haul in as many rebounds as Williams did (4.7 compared to 11.5). The translation is essentially overall for the Sabres rebounding is 41.7 in 2024 compared to their 45.1 rebounds in 2023 and 25 attempts per game in 2024 compared to 23 per game in 2023. While not a huge amount of difference numbers wise – the optics seem to show the change could be beneficial for the Sabres. Only time will tell if this proves to be the change they needed to make by “robbing Peter to pay Paul.”
Can the Rockets cover the absence of Mansfield and Batish for the second half of the season?
They’ve shown they can so far… and they are going to have to go further with Mansfield now qualified for the Paris Olympics with the Gangurrus 3×3 team and Batish still out for some time. The savvy recruiting of Genna Anderson was a master stroke from “Ironman of North“ Brenton Johnston and the minutes provided by Badenoch, Shannon Webber, Kelsey McKay and Abbey Jones have covered those gaps. It’s Brooke Basham however that has doubled her contribution overall with her 24.4 points at 51 percent, 5.6 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game almost covering two players herself as is Jordyn Freer with 13.9 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.1 assists. They should be top two by the season’s end and set themselves up for whatever they have roster wise ahead of them.
Can the Lions continue to temper expectations to keep the run rolling?
It’s an overwhelming yes now… and here’s why – it’s not just the impressive big time wins, it’s the scrappy, ugly ones they’ve gotten as well. On paper the depth looked strong but bringing it all together while staring a history of cellar dwelling the past 12 years is a lot to overcome. They’ve done that with an 8-1 record as it stands with plenty of favourable splits – they are in the box seat even if they don’t finish first now to secure a finals position. Preseason we suspected they’d be competing and now its confirmed. The only things that can get in the way of the Lions charging to the finals is themselves and a clean bill of health – but they’ve shown they can cover enough to still be a top five finisher now.
And that’s why I held on getting on them until I saw a couple of these things in person…
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