Preliminary Final weekend often throws up some of the games of the season and lucky for us the cream of the crop is rising to the top just in time for two potential overtime classics
3-Minute Read
Preliminary Finals
Sturt Sabres vs Norwood Flames
Norwood Flames vs Southern Tigers (ARC – The Firedome)
Women (6:30pm)
Last time they met
QF: Southern Tigers 75 (McKendrick 22, Hernandez, Yaeger 14, Stasinowsky 10) defeated by Norwood Flames 83 (Smith 22, Wilson 19, Thompson 17, Kerridge 10)
Three burning questions for tonight…
How will Morgan Yaeger handle the Flames cooler Kerridge?
The question that coach Matt Clarke no doubt has been wrestling with since their last encounter. Although it’ll come down to more than just player matchups it’ll be a question how much physicality Flames cooler Sophie Kerridge will (and be allowed to apply) after a very physical game at the Cage in the qualifying final. This time they are on Kerridge’s home deck of the Flames but as Yaeger has said this week – she’s excited to go play at their place. Its clear that she embraces the adversity, and the Flames crowd might do their team a favour by giving Yaeger no fire to play with. No question Yaeger is a winner but with a much more mature mentality after her time under Shannon Seebohm at the Townsville Fire.
She knows how to handle the heat when it comes…
How do the Tigers stop Wilson getting downhill again?
If the NBL1 Central women’s season was a winter sport then Ally Wilson has won the downhill skiing season by a landslide in 2023. As the leading defensive rebounder of 2023, I would hazard a guess that she is largely responsible for the Flames large amount of fast break points – I’d say she’s at least top three in the league for finishing those points. Against the Tigers all her shots made were driving layups and pull up triples.
It’s got to be a lot of Yaeger but the Tigers can’t have her commit fully with her needed at the offensive end. The big job must fall to Margot Hall but having been at the Tigers for multiple years and with no Mariah Martin – it’s her time…
Do the Flames have one more match to strike up another cameo?
One thing that strikes me about the Flames is a cameo performance from one of their players against the Tigers has gotten them across the line. In their earlier encounter it was Kerridge with 21 points. In their regular season matchup against the Tigers at the Cage it was Jada Rice with 14 points and 21 rebounds. In the qualifying final it was Jorjah Smith with 22 points.
Does anyone sense after being sitting there all season a former Tiger may play a significant role tonight – Bella Stratford could be the one that points in the big cameo that gets the Flames into the last dance.
Key Statistics
Flames – Shot 11 triples at 32 percent in the qualifying final dominated rebounding (49) and steals (11) and scored 19 points from turnovers. In the semi-final they shot five triples at a woeful 16 percent, lost the rebounding by six (49) and turned it over 18 times. In the final term particularly which they lost 22-10, they conceded six points combined from turnover and second chance points, six turnovers and shot 27 percent from the field with 4 of 17.
Tigers – Shot less than 30 percent (6/22) from beyond the arc and turned it over 18 times in the qualifying final. Against the Panthers in the semi-final, they shot 14 triples at 44 percent and turned it over 15 times (actually it’s the first time this combo has happened this season with normally less than 13 turnovers occurring) – they also had 23 assists.
The Central Closer
The Flames have held the torch to the Tigers tail all season so there’s no reason why we shouldn’t back the Flames in, but the preliminary final is no ordinary game. History tells us these games in prelims between these two are super close with still a couple of Tigers around when they last got over the Flames in a thriller in the prelim of 2017 by 105-103 – there’d still be some storied memories of that time.
For me the game will be won when it comes down to all of it the hand of Yaeger or Wilson – whoever lasts in the game the longest will take their team to the big dance and I think it might be via extra basketball.
Just that battled hardened finals experience will play the most crucial part in the finish…
COD Prediction: Tigers by 2 points in Overtime
Men’s Preliminary Final
West Adelaide Bearcats vs Sturt Sabres (Port Adelaide – The Bearcat Cave)
Men (7:30pm)
Last time they met
West Adelaide Bearcats 93 (McCarron, Olbrich 21, DeSantis 18, Drmic, Roxburgh 15) defeated Sturt Sabres 91 (Rasmussen 27, Rigoni 20, Forbes 18)
Three snarling questions for tonight…
So what actually happened last week?
The short answer is the Bearcats didn’t do too much wrong till the final minutes. They broke pretty even with the Eagles in all the other stats and most of their players played their role exactly as designed. The Eagles got a couple of cameos from Jordan Wilson and Isaac Jurecky. The ATO plays which were nearly identical as summed up by Pick and Rolls Jordan McCallum summed up one of those games that could’ve swung either way.
Does Tobias have another “Finals” performance in him?
The big question I had over the Sabres coming into the season was who was going to play the five spot for them if they went deep into the season? They grabbed Jamie Smith from the Tigers who has started their majority of the season and served his role admirably. But the spectre of a man who knows how to play big finals game in Tobias Dowdell was always going to be his time “playing” his way into that position. After a horrific qualifying final his start to last Sunday afternoon set the tone for the Sabres for Forbes and Rigoni to dismantle the Panthers. Dowdell’s finals record includes 9 points and 11 rebounds in the 2021 Preliminary Final and 27 points (20 in the first half) and 10 rebounds in the 2021 Grand Final.
Coach Nyberg knows all too well the danger his former captain holds tonight…
Can Joel Spear be the one to separate the Sabres?
It’s been three months since Spear scored 15 or more points in an NBL1 Central game. Some of that naturally has been by design with four incredibly dominant teammates but it might be exactly the motivation the former Sturt Sabre needs to fire up for a big final. But mark my words he is capable having been part of the league’s 40 club and with all the attention defensively going onto McCarron, Drmic, Olbrich and DeSantis – Spear is absolutely due for a big haul.
It could come at the perfect time tonight…
Key Statistics
Bearcats – Are the #1 offensive team in the league averaging 97 points. In their last meeting (a better reflection of the two teams) they still shot 54 percent to win from the field, won the rebounds 44-35.
Sabres – Are the #1 defensive team in the league conceding just 77.6 points. In their last meeting they stole it 16 times to create 13 points from turnover and forced the Bearcats into 19 turnovers.
The Central Closer
It’s a classic offence versus defence argument in this one as to who progresses. I do feel minus Rasmussen the Sabres are down one really gun player to match it with the Bearcats but the Sabres are a misery bunch as well. Olbrich vs Dowdell and McCarron vs Forbes will decide this one as the most influential matchups.
Its hard to look past that NBL level talent and I think they’ll just get it but it will go right down to the wire and possibly also into extra time.
COD Prediction: Bearcats by 3 points
We are closing in on the end of the NBL1 season but we want to continue our work telling the stories of SA Basketball this summer and beyond with world championships, local legends, NBL and WNBL previews, reviews and NBL1 off season news and predictions – Can you do a shotclock sub of $14 or $24 a year to help us do this?
CROSS OVER DRIBBLE 