Who's going to the finals? - Plenty of individual players hold their fate still in their hands and it might be Riley Meldrum (#13) of the Warriors that rises to the occasion in an essential elimination final tonight for Woodville - Picture by Picture IT Sports Photography/Sharnee Jones
3-Minute Read
4.7 Positions on the Premiership Table Teams are generally classified according to the FIBA Official Rules of Basketball with the following exception.
*If 2 or more teams have the same win-loss record of all games in the group, the game(s) between these 2 or more teams shall be used to decide their final ladder positions. If the 2 or more teams have the same win-loss record of the games between them, further criteria will be applied in the following order: (i) Higher goal difference of the games between them- (ii) Higher number of goals scored in the games between them- (iii) Higher goal difference of all games in the group- (iv) Higher number of goals scored in all games in the group.
Keep that in mind as we trawl through the outcomes of Round 15…
Round 15
Saturday 15/07/2023
South Adelaide Panthers vs Woodville Warriors – (Mitchell Park – The Jungle) – Kayo Game of the Week
LTTM: Woodville Warriors 54 (Perkas 14) defeated by South Adelaide Panthers 76 (DeFrancesco 14, Forbes 12, Johnson 11, Spencer 9)
Women (Saturday 6:30pm)
The South Adelaide Panthers are clinging by their claws to fifth place right now on the table – and once again in the final game of the season they take on the plucky Woodville Warriors who have always made life difficult for them in past seasons.
The Panthers lost to the Tigers 87-58 with Holly Forbes with 18 points and 10 rebounds and Ash Spencer 14 points and 7 rebounds – but scoring remains the Achilles heal of the white and blue. The curiosity around the timeout late against the Tigers may have been a turning point where the coaches took a backward step and left it to the players to work out how to execute what they needed. Whether it’s a turning point for the Panthers after defeating the Norwood Flames 92-78 with Sam DeFrancesco 18 points and Jordan Hunter with 11 points, seven rebounds and six assists – the most important contributions that mattered. The big contribution though was Darcy Rees with 13 points and 12 rebounds which Forbes matched as well.
They play Woodville who they’ve struggled with in the past (in the last round in 2022 it was 81-85 at the Fortress formerly the Castle) traditionally but hold their own destiny after that win over the Flames, they hold the split over both West but not over North and Forestville – they can finish as high as fourth or as low as seventh and miss completely. The Warriors best chance is through Nicole Fransson who in the last Kayo game of the round on ANZAC day struck foul trouble.
The Panthers must win, and I think they’ll get this one and sneak into the final five…
Key Stat – The Panthers scoring woes have continued with 20.5 quarters yielding 15 points or less but Saturday three of 23 or more was enough to get over the Flames.
COD Prediction: Panthers by 4 points
Men (Saturday 8:15pm)
LTTM: Woodville Warriors 74 (McGee, Stepney 20, Ficken 8) defeated by South Adelaide Panthers 93 (Hoppo 18, Johnson 17, Johns 16, Barton 15, McVeigh, Starling 10)
The Woodville Warriors have been thereabouts in season 2023 and while the consistency and fluency of their campaign of 2022 has not been there – a win tonight against the already qualified Panthers will see them give themselves a chance to see their way back to the decider but a loss and it could be season over if results don’t go their way…
The Panthers after defeating the Tigers 74-95 and the Flames 95-66 have locked in a finals spot but where they finish is still up for grabs with the door ajar to top two. Alex Starling grabbed 24 points, 11 rebounds and six assists while Lloyd McVeigh has hit good form at the right time with 31 points and 10 rebounds. The enigma that is Daniel Johnson looms for all teams as notched another two near double doubles but has been guarded well by Woodville in the past. The Panthers could finish as high as second if results got their way but as low as fourth if they lose and Sturt win is their scenario.
The Warriors face a must could finish in fourth as they now have split over Sabres after Sunday’s win but lose and they would miss if results went against them dropping the split to the Flames but holding the one over the Rockets. It couldn’t have been much tighter last weekend with Jawan “The One” Stepney unbelievable with 49 points and 35 points to take an average of 42 points, nine rebounds and six assists to take out player of the week in the men’s – he is the single reason why I do not write off this team if they make the final five. He’s needed some help and in the absence of Devon McGee and mostly David Humphries – Riley Meldrum took his game to another level last weekend with 16 points and four rebounds and 23 points respectively.
With the Panthers in and the Warriors too much to lose – Woodville will find a way to rally to win a thriller and keep this rollercoaster season going for the green and gold…
Key Stat – It’s number one offensive rebounding team in the league in the Panthers versus the sharp shooting of last weekend in the Warriors with 47 percent – the last two times they’ve met the Warriors shot sub 36 percent and lost including last years decider.
COD Prediction: Warriors by 2 points
North Adelaide Rockets vs Norwood Flames – (Lights – The Launch Pad)
LTTM: Norwood Flames 83 (Wilson 48, Kerridge 15, Thompson 11, Akuen 9) defeated North Adelaide Rockets 74 (Mansfield 23, Basham 19, Freer 11)
Women (Saturday 6:30pm)
That was a huge blow for the Rockets last week dropping both games which now has them teetering in sixth place and stuck in a log jam for two spots. A loss to the Mavericks 76-74 and the Tigers 74-88 has this one still not only a must win but fate out of their hands. It’s been Basham and Mansfield all season with another set of handy contributions. Rebounding was key in those losses with counts of 56-38 and 46-49 – a combined minus 21 boards given up. If they can get to 10 wins and the Panthers and Bearcats (hold the split) slip they can finish as high as fourth – a loss and they rely on other results holding the split over the Panthers but not to Forestville.
The Flames also had a minor slip which may have possibly cost them top two, but it remains a possibility with at least a win over the Eagles 93-76 last week. They have secured their spot thanks to their outside shooting numbers with 23 threes on the weekend courtesy of Sharna Thompson with 22 and 25 points with four triples. They can claim second the Flames, but a loss actually has them dropping as low as fourth if West Adelaide win who have the split over them, they’ll be either second, third or fourth by the end of Saturday night.
I think they take third place and consign the Rockets to the fate of others with a win…
Key Stat – The Rockets got Jordyn Freer on the scoreboard with 17 and 18 points in both games – they need that contribution to construct the firepower against the Flames.
COD Prediction: Flames by 6 points
Men (Saturday 8:15pm)
LTTM: Norwood Flames 93 (Smith 24, Lycett, Webber 18, Nuangki 17, Stanwix 12) defeated North Adelaide Rockets 84 (Harrap 22, McCalop 18, Carlisle 14, Aliir 13, McDonald 11)
The impact of who wins this game won’t be felt till post Saturday night with the Flames making a blazing run late but now have it out of their hands after succumbing to the Panthers 95-66 last Saturday night. Trey McBride produced consistent numbers across both contests with 15 points, eight rebounds and seven assists and 28 points and eight rebounds. Win and results go their way the Flames can sneak into fifth holding split over Warriors.
North can equal the record with the Warriors if results go their way but would finish sixth (with a 10 point win over the Flames) I believe with a split against them but as we’ve said before some things are best left to the mathematicians to work out how the elimination final spots will be set up for the end of the season – North Adelaide will look back and potentially rue overtime against the Warriors…
The Flames get the win here however and leave it up to the Warriors to determine whether they progress another week in 2023…
Key Stat – Points from turnovers has been key for the Flames with 15 versus the Eagles but just the eight versus the Panthers.
COD Prediction: Flames by 10 points
Southern Tigers vs West Adelaide Bearcats – (Morphett Vale – The Cage)
LTTM: West Adelaide Bearcats 68 (Simmons 15, Brenton 11, Coleman, Fejo 10) defeated by Southern Tigers 80 (McKendrick 25, Stasinowsky 22, Hernandez 14, Martin 11)
Women (Saturday 6:30pm)
The Tigers defensive side to their game is coming to the fore on the eve of the finals with suffocating of opposition apparent in their last weekend assignments. They gave up a combined amount of 66 points and it’s been the inside paint protection that has lifted for the Southern side. The numbers have lifted due to output of import Brittany Hernandez who had 19 points, 14 rebounds and five blocks and 21 points and 15 rebounds – they are huge numbers in the five position and perhaps provide one strength that centre Teige Morrell didn’t have in their championship year – the outside three ball threat which Hernandez can bring. Equalling the Morrell numbers in points and rebounds was the missing element for the Tigers to return to their current form. They can seal top two with a win, if they lose they may slip to third if the Flames win who hold the split over them.
The Bearcats both on and off court looked gone but a mini revival including three wins in a row over the Eagles, Mavericks (88-47 off the Mavs second game) and held off a challenging Lions outfit (73-81) tonight will tell us a lot about how much this is a revival or a late flash in the pan. The keys have been the ball handling numbers with 28 and 17 assists in both last week’s wins – Andrea Aquino is the key player at the centre with 16 points, 10 rebounds and five blocks and 12 points and seven rebounds. A win with results going their way amazingly lifts them into third, a loss and they’ll potentially be in a three-way tie with the Panthers and Rockets which they have lost splits to – they could finish as low as sixth and miss completely.
The Tigers win this one and consign the Bearcats to the logjam, but I think they’ll still make it and play the Panthers in the first week of the finals…
Key Stat –The rim protection is in the numbers for the Tigers with 12 blocks versus the Panthers and four versus the Rockets…
COD Prediction: Tigers by 6 points
Men (Saturday 8:15pm)
LTTM: West Adelaide Bearcats 100 (DeSantis 19, Olbrich 16, McCarron 15, Drmic 14, Roxburgh 13, Stock 12) defeated Southern Tigers 56 (Thompson 17, Dau 11, Green 9)
With West secure in first place in some ways the Tigers getting them now couldn’t be better timing – but there might be a talent gap between one and ten potentially opened up tonight.
Whether we see balanced minutes tonight is anyone’s guess, but I can solidify it won’t be DNP’s for the likes of Drmic, Olbrich and possibly McCarron who still played 35 minutes plus last weekend. 200 game all-round good guy Hamish Staude is one who will be keen to have some extended minutes in against his former side in the Tigers – as would Sean Stock, Lachlan Hunter, Matt Trandafil and Ciganovic.
The Tigers want to get that elusive win and will throw everything at the Bearcats – it’s the combo of Dau and Green that could trouble the Bearcats in patches but a focused four quarter effort looking after the basketball is what is needed in this one if they were to cause the upset.
The Bearcats run deep and will get their 15th and a decent hit out before their week off next week leading into their qualifying semi-final the following week…
Key Stat – The Bearcats against the lower teams on the table tend to flick a switch – they dropped 46 points in the third quarter last week to bury the Mavs.
COD Prediction: Bearcats by 8 points
Eastern Mavericks vs Sturt Sabres – (St Francis – The Shooting Gallery)
LTTM: Sturt Sabres 70 (Williams 24, Brazel 13, K Mathews 11) defeated Eastern Mavericks 65 (Otto 23, Garcia 12, Levy 11, Bradley, Formby 8)
Women (Saturday 6:30pm)
The management of the Sabres minutes will be intriguing in this one and holds the most interest for a team possibly about to complete a clean sweep of a regular season. I am dead certain though coach Tim Shortt will not be changing preparation or routine as in his mind clearly the job isn’t done until they win the whole thing in finals. Taking advantage however of the final games have been Jasmin Rigoni and Paige Padroth. Rigoni had a combined 33 points and Padroth 14 points and three rebounds in elevated minutes of 20 plus. Expect more players like Mikayla Tatterelli, Emily Roach and Mia Walker-Roberts to take the floor.
It’s a real glimpse into the future with Jannon Otto and Peyton Taylor all finished up for season 2023 – and there’s some great talent now executing super coach Vikki Kelson’s off-court work for all to see. Allie Garcia has risen with an average of 12.5 points and 5.5 rebounds last weekend.
The Mavs will push the Sabres hard in this one but without definitely Otto, likely Taylor and who knows on Levy with her Crow commitments – the Sabres will get it just like last time on ANZAC day.
Key Stat – The last time to sweep the regular season 18-0 was the North Adelaide Rockets in 2018 famously led by a 45-year-old legend of basketball Jo Hill
COD Prediction: Sabres by 5 points
Men (Saturday 8:15pm)
LTTM: Sturt Sabres 88 (Forbes 26, Rasmussen 18, Rigoni 15, Brennan 13, Turnbull 8) defeated Eastern Mavericks 76 (Legan 26, Hemphill 24, Rentoy 11, Gur 8)
The Mavericks have had a stellar year considering their past five seasons – it’s been a long time since 2018 when they had more than four wins in a season with six wins that season. That’s the carrot that is needed for the Mavs to get up for one last crack in the season.
The Sabres however still have a task ahead of them after defeating Centrals 91-82 but then losing to desperate Warriors 96-85. It’s all on the shoulders of the Sabre J’s in Forbes (27 points and 13 rebounds and six assists and 16 points, 11 rebounds and six assists) and Rigoni (17 points and eight rebounds and 27 points and 19 rebounds and three assists) especially with Keanu Rasmussen missing the last few games. As a result, the steal count has been down with 11 and six steals across the weekend. They win and they could finish in third as they have the split over the Panthers – lose and they fall to fifth after dropping their split to the Warriors if they win.
The Sabres however win and rightfully secure their place in the finals…
Key Stat – Sam Daly is the x-factor coming into finals with 12 points, two rebounds and five assists and 14 points, five rebounds and three assists over last weekend…
COD Prediction: Sabres by 9 points
Central Districts Lions vs Forestville Eagles – (St Clair – The Fortress)
LTTM: Forestville Eagles 72 (M Freer 29, Simons 20, A Brett 8) defeated Central Districts Lions 58 (Sears 26, Guy 18)
Women (Saturday 6:30pm)
It gets all mathematical for the Eagles women with their loss 93-76 to the Flames hurting their chances of sneaking in but its not impossible with De La Cerdaless Lions lineup. That however is not the issue for the Eagles but giving up extra opportunities to their opportunities was. Even though they went 1-1 with a win over the Warriors 74-79 they had 19 and 5 offensive rebounds but gave up to 24 versus the Warriors. If they get to 9-9 with results going their way can get into a three-way tie with Panthers and Rockets and have split over both
Some key criteria in that three-way tie as per the bylaws mentioned at the start include – Higher goal difference currently being with the Eagles with +17 and the highest goals scored with 303 to the Rockets. The Lions 1-16 record is not fully reflective of the decent season they’ve had in a strong competition – this Lions outfit would’ve given plenty of the mid-table teams of last season a decent run as well and like all teams in the bottom five last season are a better version of themselves.
In saying that the Eagles should take this one comfortably at get that all important ninth win then start getting the abacuses and the calculators out straight after tonight’s play…
Key Stat – Jess Simons numbers were crucial to give them a chance – she lifted to an average of 21.5 points and eight rebounds…
COD Prediction: Eagles by 15 points
Men (Saturday 8:15pm)
LTTM: Forestville Eagles 107 (Mays 26, Doyle 22, Machar, Wilson 16, Jurecky 12, Rathjen 8) defeated Central Districts Lions 91 (Nai 25, Jenkins 20, Baker 14, Sapwell 12, Bol 10)
One thing apparent on Andy Simons clipboard this week would be the lack of D’s all over his notes. That’s something he’ll want to tidy up in his Eagles this weekend against the “wandering” Lions after conceding an average of 105.5 points last round. In terms of splitting the results he has Greg Mays who continues to be underrated with 42 and 33 points respectively this past weekend. In playing Centrals they can lock up top two with a 13th win but an upset loss which Sapwell’s group is capable of and they rely on the Panthers and Sabres below them could be a three way tie – they hold splits over both giving them the advantage.
The Lions on their night can be an offensive powerhouse but the Eagles will want to make sure of this…
Key Stat – You are flirting with form if you give up an average of 48.5 percent from the field to your opposition – that’s what the Eagles did last weekend…
COD Prediction: Eagles by 18 points
We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in Round 15 between the South Adelaide Panthers and the Woodville Warriors on Kayo and Kayo Freebies tonight.
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