It’s a special week not only for basketball but for our First Nations people of NBL1 Central clubs – headlined by some must win clashes to kick off part one First Nations Round - Picture by Picture It Sports Photography 2022
3-Minute Read
Round 14 Part One
Thursday 6/07/2023 and Friday 7/07/2023
Southern Tigers vs South Adelaide Panthers – (Morphett Vale – The Cage)
Women (Thursday 6:30pm)
LTTM: South Adelaide Panthers 62 (Spencer 18, Stewart 13, DeFrancesco 13, Forbes 8) defeated by Southern Tigers 79 (Martin 16, Hernandez 14, McKendrick 13, Stasinowsky 11, Hall, Yaeger 10)
The Tigers open First Nations Round at their home of the cage with non-other than the southern showdown – which they’ve dominated despite the Panthers high finishes on the ladder. They’ll be disappointed with their loss to the Sabres on Sunday having given up through the majority of the game 60 percent from the field to their other cats rival. 24 turnovers also marred the Tigers game along with only 21 percent from beyond the arc. Again, those markers for Southern tell the story of their game along with remaining competitive on the glass – but currently are only breaking even.
The Panthers have slipped to fifth on the table with the Bearcats and Eagles breathing right down their neck. Scoring in big game again seems to be where the Panthers need to find their claws after managing 49-35 in the opening half against fellow contender the Rockets they only managed another 25 points across the remaining 25 minutes including overtime. Those drop outs of scoring through the season may ultimately hurt this team by seasons end – they have scored only 15 or less a quarter 17.5 times in season 2023…
In the context of the season for both teams winning this game is crucial – The Tigers need the win before they take on the Rockets which with two wins could seal second place by First Nations Rounds end. The Panthers with the Flames awaiting on Saturday night still have their destiny in their own hands, but this weekend is a massive challenge to split both games.
The streak and the head says the Tigers but if there was ever a time to break it -tonight is it for the Panthers.
Key Stat – The Tigers have not been beaten by the Panthers since 2019 – they are on a eight-game winning streak
COD Prediction: Tigers by 12 points
Men (Thursday 8:15pm)
LTTM: South Adelaide Panthers 97 (Johnson 20, Ellison 17, McVeigh 17, Davies 11, Barton 10, Myles 8) defeated Southern Tigers 53 (Johnson 17, Dickeson 9)
The Southern Showdown did not follow a traditional script the last time these two teams met – they are normally very close and very competitive, but the Panthers pushed away the Tigers by a large margin last time. Now the Tigers a little more experienced than the last time they met will be extremely desperate to notch that first win with the skin of their rivals the Panthers.
How can the Tigers utilise their strengths to challenge the Panthers? They can rebound and simply they’ll need a good shooting night – in their games they have challenged they shot the ball at 45 percent or more from the field and the three-point line. Stopping the Panthers on the offensive glass which their #1 in as well as grabbing those second chance points which their #2 in the league for.
You’d think the Panthers will get this one comfortably but the Southern Showdown apart from the last one throws up unusual results normally.
Key Stat – The average margin between the Panthers and Tigers since 2019 has been 8.6 points – Southern Showdowns always deliver no matter the personnel. Was their last meeting being possibly an outlier???
COD Prediction: Panthers by 28 points
Norwood Flames vs Forestville Eagles (ARC – The Firedome)
Women (Friday 6:30pm)
LTTM: Forestville Eagles 59 (Hines 17, Annetts 12, Freer 10, A Brett 8) defeated by Norwood Flames 72 (Smith 25, Kerridge, Parkin 12)
Last time they met both teams were fourth and fifth on the table and who knew months later down the track both would still be in the race for the finals – I admit I certainly didn’t think so.
But a lot can change when you insert Ally Wilson, Jada Rice and Marissa Hamilton from the last time they met into these teams. Rebounding was very important the last time they met with the Flames winning it by a shade and hitting an extra five triples from beyond the arc.
The scary thing is the Flames have bolstered their lineup from that victorious team eyeing off a top three finish even grabbing second place is still in play with Eagles, Panthers and Rockets to come. While the Eagles can really set themselves up for a spot in the elimination final returning to where they were in 2022.
It’s a tight call in this one but the Flames just have the edge with their current form and any team with Ally Wilson can change the momentum of a match mid quarter is going to be a warm favourite majority of games.
Key Stat – The Flames have found ways to turn the game right around after losing quarters – in their last four games against West Adelaide, Eastern, Southern, Woodville they have outscored the opposition seven times in the preceding quarter.
COD Prediction: Flames by 4 points
Men (Friday 8:30pm)
LTTM: Forestville Eagles 96 (Rios 30, Doyle 14, Mays 10, Rathjen 9, Jurecky 8) defeated Norwood Flames 59 (Nuangki, Smith 12, Lycett, Stanwix 8)
Are the Flames a genuine finals contender? All the pieces are in place but taking down the second placed Eagles would certainly stoke the believe amongst the NBL1 Central basketball community. There’s been some good signs, but this game is the genuine test of whether they can find their way into contention or whether potentially by luck of the draw they scramble in to at least see the first week of action.
The Flames last finals appearance in 2022 was to the wings of the Eagles as they tried to run them over in the final quarter. If there is an area of concern for the Eagles against the top of the table Bearcats last weekend – it’s the rebounding where they got done by West including 13 offensive. The Flames in their wins where they’ve pulled it all together are averaging 15.5 per game.
The Eagles will be keen to secure the win to almost sew up a top two position, but the Flames need to win all their remaining games to land on 11 to jump ahead of the Warriors and Rockets.
This one is very close to call considering it’s at the ARC and the Flames didn’t have McBride, Miller-Jose, but I still just get the feeling the Eagles will flex their muscle and bounce back from last week.
Key Stat – The Flames have made home very comfortable in season 2023 – with +6 in points and an offensive rating of 107.5 (+8).
COD Prediction: Eagles by 4 points
Eastern Mavericks vs North Adelaide Rockets – (St Francis – The Shooting Gallery)
Women (6:30pm)
LTTM: North Adelaide Rockets 100 (Basham 26, Meyer 19, J Freer 16, Corrigan 14, Badenoch 14) defeated Eastern Mavericks 77 (Taylor 20, Otto 19, Bradley 17)
Huge danger game of the North Adelaide Rockets in this one with the Eastern Mavericks on a two-game winning streak and filling very confident right now.
The Mavs are starting to click at the back end of the season under Vikki Kelson who has steadily changed the makeup of the youngest team in the league. The numbers that standout apart from the scoring which is +33 in their wins is points from turnovers (+5), Points in the paint (+22) and the big one plus 12 in assists. Getting the ball moving in offence and utilising multiple post targets could give the Rockets some significant trouble as they gun for a top three finish.
The Rockets have been challenged in their last three games and responded accordingly – The Warriors were right there at halftime before putting them away, same with the Bearcats and then surviving overtime against the Panthers last week. While there is still a string reliance on their two WNBL stars in Basham and Mansfield – Brenton Johnston has his second unit in good nick right now approaching the business end of the season.
I think the Rockets sneak this one with their depth but do not be at all surprised to see the Mavs chalk up win number three in a row – but if North are serious about finals then they need this one in the bag.
Key Stat – The form of Badenoch, Corrigan, Meyer and Freer is telling in their wins – averaging 33.7 per win compared to 23.2 per loss…
COD Prediction: Rockets by 5 points
Men (Friday 8:15pm)
LTTM: North Adelaide Rockets 102 (Harrap 32, Aliir 20, McCalop 17, Carlisle 16, McDonald 11) defeated Eastern Mavericks 89 (Ciabattoni 23, Hemphill 20, Raneburg 13, Legan 11)
It was a high scoring contest between these two last time they met, and it’s bound to be turned into that again…
However, I don’t think Mikey Rogers will be keen for a close one as they hunt all three wins across the remaining rounds – while relying on teams ahead of them to slip up to sneak into the elimination final again. They’ll be buoyed by the news Akech Aliir will be an Adelaide 36ers development player and likely to remain for NBL124 season, but the Mavs main man James Legan will be looking for a bit of revenge against this team that locked him down for just 11 points last time.
A backend of the season explosion for Legan is definitely on the cards. His teammates have been working hard to get him into the game with plenty of off-ball action clearing anywhere between the halfway line and three-point wings. If Dan Wray’s Mavs can break even with the Rockets on the rebounding through Hemphill and Gur then they are a chance to steal this one and end the Rockets slim chances of making the finals.
With the Tigers this weekend – this result could setup an early elimination final between the Rockets and Flames next weekend.
But I think the Mavs get this one in an upset to finish with one of their best seasons in recent memory…
Key Stat – Both teams lit it up last time they met nailing 26 triples in the match – the shooting gallery could be open again in this one.
COD Prediction: Mavericks by 3 points
We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in Round 14 between the Central Districts Lions and the West Adelaide Bearcats on Kayo and Kayo Freebies Sunday.
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