Tigers to tighten grip on streak? - Amazingly the Southern Tigers women are aiming for a seventh straight consecutive victory over their rivals the South Adelaide Panthers in the Southern Showdown tonight - Picture by Picture IT Sports Photography
3-Minute Read
Round 7
Saturday 6/05/2023
Forestville Eagles vs Norwood Flames – (Wayville – The Nest)
Women (6:15pm)
Opening game of the night is and I coin again an intriguing one with plenty of repercussions – the Eagles and Flames are placed fourth and fifth on the ladder respectively but lost one for the first time in 15 years to the Warriors and the Flames doused for a second time in a row by the Panthers ending their four-game winning streak since Wilson’s return.
The Eagles got outrebounded as predicted and really missed the hands of Hines, Borlase and Stamatelopoulos who is unlikely to be seen for the rest of the season now. It was a -14 differential on the glass and gave up 22 turnovers. It’s been a rough hand dealt for Georgia Crouch but two bright sports were the games of Alannah Morello (eight points and seven assists) and Ellie Constantopoulos (five points in 10 minutes) – the Eagles need those performances plus a few more consistently to keep them in tonight’s contest.
After a fiery performance against the Rockets – Wilson and the Flames ran into the dour defensive nature of the Panthers being held to 33 percent from the field, 29 percent from beyond the arc and 16 assists and they only score more than 20 points in one quarter held to 73 for the game. The task is a tough test for the Flames likely minus Wilson with 3×3 camp duty this weekend so the responsibility falls to Kerridge and Thompson. The area that might decide this one might be the rebounding again and if Akuen and Thompson can make things tough for Annetts and Hines – then the Flames can sneak this one in a 50-50 coin flip.
Key Stat – Flames are ranked #5 in the competition for rebounds with 34.1 but its only four ahead of the Eagles.
COD Prediction: Flames by 3 points
Men (8:00pm)
The Eagles have resumed pole position in NBL1 2023 but unlike the womens side of the draw the Mens looks a bit more open at the top especially between the top four. One team looking to draw themselves into the conversation are the Norwood Flames who despite a loss to the Panthers last week are still looking reasonably solid. But that’s also what happened with the Rockets after they put in some solid performances before the Eagles took them apart in the space of just under five minutes.
It looks like the same could occur again but with German club Itzehoe still in a best of three finals of the European finals meaning down the aisle to South Australia will have to wait a bit more for Trey McBride (currently averaging 26.5 points in the finals). In the meantime, Stanwix and the vets Lycett and Webber have filled the void but this might be the game they may have needed McBride more than ever to matchup on Doyle, Rathjen, Machar, Rios Mays and Hulland – and that’s where I think the Eagles might get them that one too many guns on the floor.
Key Stat – The Eagles have three in the top twenty scorers, rebounders, assisters and stealers – wait to go to represent in each of the key categories in the league
COD Prediction: Eagles by 13 points
North Adelaide Rockets vs Eastern Mavericks – (The Lights – The Launch Pad)
Women (6:30pm)
The drama of this one could unfold quickly with one major out and one major likely in (after declaring it last week this week it will happen). The Rockets Mansfield and Basham were held tightly by the Tigers clamped down by a tight Southern grip. Both were held to a combined 28 points and three assists – that’s a telling number in the Rockets losses again!
The Mavericks made a fist against the Bearcats who found their bite and after hanging in there for a half succumbed to the Fejo led onslaught – but the support crew has arrived. A former Rocket is likely to take the court after “suiting” up for reserves on Tuesday with 21 points in a big win over a depleted Bearcats while another Mav made an angelic return from injury with a solid 10-point game. Whether one or both take the court remains to be seen however with one likely – against a Rockets team that also likely will be missing Mansfield due to 3×3 duties they may be able to sneak the upset.
And I think a team that may also know one of their former players may just be able to do that…
Key Stat – The Rockets average 11.8 in losses in 2023 – plus have an assist percentage of 51.1 percent which is -13.4 in their wins.
COD Prediction: Mavericks by 4 points
Men (8:15pm)
The Rockets had a rough run since their annihilation at the hands of the Bearcats which finally was broken against the developing Tigers. Now with a game against the former coaches Mikey Rogers side – sparks are bound to fly with also some former players sitting either side of the ledger. McCalop will be keen to prove a point and has been in awesome form this last week averaging 21.3 points and nine rebounds.
The Mavs took it right up to one of the now heavy favourites for the title with a great first half 48-51 before a 0-16 run from a couple of NBL players took it away from them. Whatever Daniel Wray is starting to build in the locker-room seems to be producing some positive results, but the proof will be how far they come if they can take out a team that’s floating just outside the top five. The Mavs have this game then the Lions, Tigers – if the Mavs are going to get on a run this is the run of games they want which might turn out to be the May for the Mavs. Considering this I sense an upset potentially too good not to have a crack at…
Key Stat – The Mavs shot 47 percent from the field against the Bearcats last week – they’ll need 45 plus again to be a chance to upset the Rockets
COD Prediction: Mavericks by 4 points
South Adelaide Panthers vs Southern Tigers (Mitchell Park – The Jungle) – Kayo Freebies Game of the Week
Women (6:30pm)
Women’s game of the week by far is the Southern showdown which will be matchup wise one of the closest we’ve seen in seasons. Last years the Tigers took ended the Panthers winning run through Margot Hall 89-75 with Yaeger also doing some damage then in the rematch at the Jungle 45-83 – Hall making a cameo again. For the streak to be broken the Panthers will need to overcome history – whilst also finding a way to stop Mollie McKendrick as well.
The Tigers dismantled an impressive unit in the Rockets last week holding the Rockets to 32 percent from the field and 23 percent from beyond the perimeter – they are number two (behind the way ahead of the pack Sabres) in the league for the least amount of points conceded with 64.7. The Panthers however are just behind them in third with 65.6 points but contrastingly are on average an 11-point better team. However, until history is broken I have to take the Tigers purely on their record alone – as some things are just as they are…
Key Stat – The Tigers have not been beaten by the Panthers since 2019 – they are on a seven-game winning streak
COD Prediction: Tigers by 5 points
Men (8:15pm)
The other Southern showdown in the Mens always can throw up a red herring or two. The Panthers look incredibly solid but as can usually happen it can take one or two small things to upset the momentum which the Tigers can expose.
This seems to be statistically a one-sided contest but the clashes between these two have been close as per the key stat in this one. Alex Starling has been a thorn in the Tigers side since he left years ago (well most sides he’s played for anyway) and the three-time champion and defensive player of the year will be assigned with stopping the most dangerous player for the Tigers in Jimma Dau. I think the Panthers in this one but it’ll be much closer than you think given their storied history in the Southern Showdown.
Key Stat – The average margin between the Panthers and Tigers since 2019 has been 8.6 points – Southern Showdowns always deliver no matter the personnel.
COD Prediction: Panthers by 6 points
Sturt Sabres vs Woodville Warriors – (Springbank – The Cave)
Women (6:30pm)
The Sabres showed us their dominance last week pilling 120 points on the board with no surprise but the four-time Olympian taking the floor again was a highlight in itself. Laura Hodges logged an impressive 10 points and three rebounds in 11 minutes of court-time the kind of production that in matchups that suit may just make sure the brilliant – another favourite to go back-to-back in the Halls medal Mikayla Williams get the rest stops she needs along the long road of NBL1 2023.
Who is on the sidelines will be of great intrigue to many with the Warriors announcing “they have parted ways with NBL1 womens coach” on their socials this week. Still yet to be revealed will it be assistant coach Louisa Kates or Brad Squire stepping up or is there another person floating around with the role starting Saturday night? Regardless of who the great challenge is the consistency of keeping this group together as its got something. Already with three wins on the board which is the most since season 2018 – The Warriors upset of the Eagles for the first time in 15 years is a cross-roads moment where they either fall over with this latest upset or rally to get it done. Nothing would make the league sit-up more than an upset of the unbeaten Sabres – and the Warriors have the tools to make it tough, but the Sabres should claim their eighth win in a row…
Key Stat – The Warriors women have not had more than three games in a season since 2019 when they won six where Sherrie was in session.
COD Prediction: Sabres by 8 points
Men (8:15pm)
Sabres are on a mini run with their Forbes to the floor I’m sure that there our team to watch at the moment with intrigue. The Warriors need to return to the winners circle after two straight defeats for last season’s grand finalists after five straight wins to open 2023 – this one is sure to throw up some matchups of great consideration and concern for both sides.
The Sabres surge has been on the back of the combo of Jordan Forbes and Jacob Rigoni. The Sabres own special J combo has been firing in their wins averaging a combined 39 points, 21.7 rebounds and 8.9 assists – their offensive rating is 107.2 but their defensive rating is 136.7. Compare that to the other special Js in Jawan Stepney and Joe Jackson who this season average 30 points, 17.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists – their offensive rating is 99.1 and their defensive rating is 109.3. The game comes down to the combinations of these players but also who from the supporting cast of Brennan, Smith, Dowdell and Rasmussen go against Meldrum, Maiorana, Janssan and Ficken. This will be a tight one, but I think the Warriors combinations and experience juts get them across the line tonight.
Key Stat – Both teams in losses are down in the numbers the Sabres minus 28 in points, 13 in rebounds and eight in assists. The Warriors are down 12 in points, six in rebounds and three in assists – which is not as much damage as the Sabres.
COD Prediction: Warriors by 3 points
West Adelaide Bearcats vs Central District Lions – (Port Adelaide Recreation Centre)
Women (6:30pm)
The Bearcats victory on Saturday at St Francis seems to have come with cost with more issues possibly strangling any opportunity to push momentum forward. Its swayed some serious doubt on last year’s champion who despite a favourable run have some questions still left unanswered as to whether they can rally for 2023. It was a much-needed breakout return for Jasmin Fejo for her 29 points, nine rebounds, six assists and five steals – the kind of numbers this team needs weekly. It looks like centre Andrea Aquino-Cullison will cause some problems for the Lions as well after dropping 34 in reserves on Tuesday and starting to find some good form.
The Lions have many of the pieces they need but they just all have to fire at once – the scoreline of 68-120 is actually a little deceptive when within contest – they only lost the game in a patch in the second quarter of 0-15 but here’s the thing. Jadeyn De La Cerda started the run for the Lions with the first seven points of the quarter then went quiet to finish with 16 for the game. Tiahna Sears went for 12 points in the first half to finish with 18 for the game. Then Imani Guy unsighted till halftime piled on 24 points literally flicking the switch to get going. The Lions as you can see have the pieces, but can they fire all at once and find a cameo to upset the elevator like Bearcats???
Key Stat – The Fejo’s Jasmin and Renai have never played against each other in NBL1 with both missing minutes in their respective matches against each other in 2022 – now they likely will take the floor against each other.
COD Prediction: Bearcats by 6 points
Men (8:15pm)
This one simply looks one of the more one-sided contests of the weekend and points to a percentage boosting win for the Bearcats – the Mavs gave them some challenge last week but were eventually put away. The Lions will try to turn this one into a scrap with Kevin Baker likely to return but his inclusion I don’t think will be enough for the Lions to stay with the home side who should break it open in the second half to run away with this one quite comfortably.
Key Stat – The Bearcats average 100.7 points per game in season 2023
COD Prediction: Bearcats by 33 points
We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in Round 7 between the South Adelaide Panthers and the Southern Tigers on Kayo and Kayo Freebies tonight.
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