Ally full of spirit - Ally Wilson dominated a high quality team last week with 48 points but one of the best stoppers in the league likely awaits her tonight - Picture by Picture IT Sports Photography
3-Minute Read
Round 6
Saturday 29/04/2023
Norwood Flames vs South Adelaide Panthers – (The ARC – The Firedome)
Women (6:00pm)
A cracking opener to Saturday night basketball at the ARC with the Flames finding their fire and the Panthers showing they are hunting as a pack. The Flames led by Ally Wilson with the second most points in the three years of the NBL1 behind Olivia Levicki’s 51 against the Lions not only was spectacular – but considering it was against another contender must have some sturdy merit. She instantly has lifted this side into contention but the Panthers are the kind of side that can shut her down.
And she’ll likely see the defensive glove of Hannah Stewart once again – who in a timely way came to the fore against the Eagles but wasn’t needed as much against the Warriors. One of the most impressive parts of this Panthers team as spoken about on the Hoopsters NBL1 show Wednesday night is the bench depth. The Panthers are scoring 22.8 from their bench players like recruits Lauren Gibbons, De-Fran (DeFrancesco) and Bianca McDonald – the area they have remarkable improvement in this year so far. This is going to be a tight contest, but it’ll come down to the experience defence of the Panthers and coach Dickel’s ability to mix things up enough to counter an opposition while in great form if their key flame is doused – still have plenty to prove.
Key Stat – Stewart has quelled the influence of Wilson in past seasons holding her to an average of 17 points and 6 assists…
COD Prediction: Panthers by 4 points
Men (7:30pm)
The Panthers responded in the perfect fashion on ANZAC day after their loss to the Eagles. They came out smoking and shell-shocked the Warriors with a 7-30 start – led by all sorts of weapons. It wasn’t Starling this time but combinations of Hoppo, Barton and of course that enigma of a man at this level Daniel Johnson. His triple double was a message of intent that if he wants to – he could still dominate the league weekly but the reality is in this team he doesn’t have to and he I think secretly loves that. He’s also probably also being loved not being guarded by Sam Johns one of the only players that can go toe-to-toe with him defensively as proved when he played for the Eagles in 2022.
I think we are going to find out a lot about the Norwood Flames this weekend regardless of result – its going to be about the look and feel of the Flames more than anything. That look includes Collin Smith starting to fire and looks an upgrade across four quarters in the centre position and the reborn nature of veterans Matt Lycett and Daniel Webber who look like they’ve found an extra gear early in the season. Holding that consistency is the key for the Flames but you feel the Panthers sounded a very loud warning sign to the rest of the league last week and will find a way to overcome the home side.
Key Stat – The form of Collin Smith is starting to show us why he was such a star in his college and KK Kumanovo days – now up to 20.75 points and nine rebounds in 29.25 minutes.
COD Prediction: Panthers by 9 points
Forestville Eagles vs Woodville Warriors – (Wayville – The Nest)
Women (6:15pm)
The Eagles did enough to get over the Lions last week but again have shown they are a very beatable side in 2023. The step-up of Maddy Freer however has been a helpful bonus of the Borlase-less Eagles now up to #9 in the league for points with 19.5 per game and nine rebounds. At 20 years of age she’s a front runner for the Merv Harris award right now…
The Warriors hit a hurdle against the match hardened Panthers with the key part of Glenn Shaw’s game taken out – the rebounding and influence of their star centre Nicole Fransson. Now we get to see after being held by a top team how she and the Warriors respond and if you are going to play another side apart from maybe the Mavericks or Lions again – this might be the one matchup wise they want. The Eagles are still #9 in rebounding and to be a contender you’ve got to be in the top four at least for rebounds in your competition historically. I think the Warriors steal the upset here and it’ll be there best chance to beat the Eagles in multiple years.
Key Stat – The Warriors are #1 in the competition for offensive rebounding with 19.3 – last game they were held to 15 and scored just the 54 points compared to 70 points per game.
COD Prediction: Warriors by 5 points
Men (8:00pm)
Both teams come into this one with several questions unanswered from last round both surrounding their wins and their losses. For the Eagles it’s the plan B if Adam Doyle is taken out of the game influence wise. For the Warriors its their depth compared to 2022 and perhaps missing Wurn, Humphries even the experience of Boonstoppel. In a simple summary of this one these questions are to be answered and I think the Warriors have shown their ability to bounce back especially with the return of Scott Whitmore likely to bolster their strategic nous throughout the contest.
Key Stat – Apart from being undone first quarter 7-30 at both ends of the floor – the Panthers took away the Warriors ability to hit the three ball shooting 23 percent and kept them off the free throw line with just nine attempts.
COD Prediction: Warriors by 5 points
Eastern Mavericks vs West Adelaide Bearcats (St Francis – The Shooting Gallery) – Kayo Freebies Game of the Week
Women (6:30pm)
Make no mistake the Mavs women aren’t too far away from getting someone and it could come with a signing that will suit if she’s ready for this one. The new player is no stranger to the league and would form a great combo with some of the existing members of this group. It also help give the Mavs some depth just in time for a team that desperately needs a win.
The Bearcats are currently a shadow of the unit we saw in 2022 and the Sabres exposed them big time for it. They’ll need a lift from some of their championship team to support the contributions of Aquino, Watkinson, Anderson and Coleman. You think they’ll be able to find a way to collectively to get this done but it all comes down to who takes the floor for both sides. I’ll take the Bearcats based on past history but don’t write off the home side scoing an upset tonight if they have their full arsenal to pick from.
Key Stat – If they play the new recruit for the Mavericks will bring an average of 17.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.3 steals and 2.2 assists – that’s handy numbers to add to the lineup needing the right fit.
COD Prediction: Bearcats by 15 points
Men (8:15pm)
The Mavs have shown vast improvement in season 2023 under Daniel Wray and they’ve started to find some genuine continuity on the court. But there is no sterner test right now than the in-form star laden side of the Bearcats now starting to climb the ladder. Legan was outstanding last round but that 25 plus per game needs to be the norm again tonight for the Mavs to have a chance to steal victory.
The Mavs biggest problem is where the matchups go – guarding Joel Spear may be neglected due to the coverage on McCarron, Drmic, Olbrich and De Santis. Whoever scores the fifth defender for the Mavs will be loose at their own peril and while I see the Mavs holding with them for a sustained period – I think the Bearcats may just have a little too much potency at both ends coupled with the experience in the line-up compared to their opponents.
But you never know if Legan gets on top and goes for league high numbers…
Key Stat – When Legan scores 20 or more the Mavericks margin is between -5 and +7 in season 2023.
COD Prediction: Bearcats by 18 points
Southern Tigers vs North Adelaide Rockets – (Morphett Vale – The Cave)
Women (6:30pm)
Another high-quality contest awaits in the women’s Saturday night with the Tigers knocking off the champions of last year Tuesday and the Rockets unable to snuff the flaming Wilson led Norwood. This game is not only pivotal to the now but could have repercussions in the future. I just get that feeling both these teams will either be in the top five comfortably or fighting for one of the remaining spots in 2023 but seasons end. Clashes against each other don’t come much bigger.
The advantage the Tigers have is their Matt Clarke spent a lot of time with the key players for the Rockets in Mansfield and Basham – he will know much of how to stop him and knows how to execute that to the players. But Johnston’s unit has been running out games strong as the pre-season fitness comes to the fore and will do in this contest. The longer this one goes and its tight the Rockets are favourable but if the Tigers are ahead comfortably at three quarter time and play at least 35 minutes of the scout on North – then they can grab this one at home. It’s a flip of the coin but the Tigers scoring power has been my biggest concern and I think North will turn it into a shootout and just prevail in bonus basketball.
Key Stat – In losses for the Rockets both Mansfield and Basham average 20 points but everyone else is under double figures…
COD Prediction: Rockets by 3 points in Overtime
Men (8:15pm)
Who enjoys roller coaster rides cause strap yourself in for this one and although both coaches will hate me saying this – it will be a case of scoring bonanza tonight. Both teams already we see like to play fast and push pace for opportunities to get above the rim to excite the fans so this one will be a must watch TV game not necessarily for skills but for flair. The players tonight include Koop McCalop against his former side, Akech Aliir, Donoven Carlisle and Durrell McDonald taking on Jett Thompson, Jimma Dau against his former side, Anthony Green and Fabian Johnson. Then add in Riley Harrap and Nic Logan taking on his old side and you have all the ingredients in this one.
I don’t think there will be much defence in this one with a prediction both teams will score over 95 plus but think the Rockets have a little more and will overpower the Tigers with a triple figure score by the finish.
Key Stat – Both teams are averaging 80.3 points and 73.5 respectively but give up 89 and 96.2 – the second and third most in the league.
COD Prediction: Rockets by 20 points
Central District Lions vs Sturt Sabres – (Starplex – The Den)
Women (6:30pm)
The Lions women even on their home floor will find this assignment one of the toughest of the season. The areas they did well in were the rebounding and evened out a lot of the numbers which resulted in the close loss to the Eagles. The downside was 58 points and scoring has been a problem this season with 61.3 – however we must look at this through the lens of 2022 that they are heading in the right direction. They averaged 63.1 across their 18 games but also were just at 39.7 rebounds, 13.3 assists, conceded 13.1 steals and 13.4 turnovers. In 2023 it’s 40.8 rebounds, 13.3 assists, conceded 12 steals and 14.7 turnovers but its more a feeling they are better version of 2022 already. The lift needs to come from De La Cerda in the scoring front having posted an average of 9.5 per game and you’d expect that to come.
The Sabres have been ultra impressive after completely taking away the game of the Bearcats in comprehensive nature. It was all done by committee as they smacked them in the shooting percentages, assists, steals, points from turnover and bench points. The game against the Mavericks – they lost the rebounding, they were forced to give the 25 attempts from the charity stripe to the Mavericks and the three-point percentages were down to 15 percent. If the Lions are to keep it as close – rebounding and forcing them left for their outside attempts. They may be able to do it for a half but a full game is whats needed against a contender that will pull away to a very comfortable win eventually.
Key Stat – The Sabres have seven players averaging six or more points in 2023
COD Prediction: Sabres by 24 points
Men (8:15pm)
The Lions men have shown some big improvement in the last few rounds but only have the one win to show for it. It’s been the high shooting percentage of 46 percent, points from turnovers (13.5) and keeping turnovers and ball security down (14) – the work that Bol and Jenkins are doing in tandem has been a positive lift for the Lions. Add to that Sapwell’s ability to pick and choose his shot up in assists with and average of six over the last three games. Coach Rupert Sapwell has spoken of his team getting their gelling together with now the starting five starting to come together.
The Sabres nearly were run over by the Mavericks but still managed to win every key statistic despite the slender win. There does always seem to be one player that gets off the chain against the Sabres consistently, last week it was Legan with 26 points, before that it was Starling (22 points) and Aliir (20 points) – Branden Jenkins is the one they can’t afford to let get away from them. I think he will continue that trend and the Lions will win two in three games.
Key Stat – The Sabres are struggling to put big points on the board but they can keep them off averaging 78 per game (#9 in the league) and conceding 78.3 per game (#3 in the league)
COD Prediction: Lions by 2 points
We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in Round 6 between the Eastern Mavericks and the West Adelaide Bearcats on Kayo and Kayo Freebies tonight.
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