Do you see me now? - We do Branden "BJ" Jenkins averaging 26.5 per game - the kind of numbers we expected to see on arrival in 2022 - Picture by Picture IT Sport Photography/Sharnee Jones
3-Minute Read
Round 5 (Part 1)
Thursday 20/04/2023
Sturt Sabres vs West Adelaide Bearcats (Springbank – The Cave)
Women (6:30pm)
The game of the round between last year’s champions has both teams at very different positions early in the season. The Sabres are flying at 4-0 off the back of Tayla Brazel’s return (another 14 points and six steals), the Mathews consistent form (18 for Nicola last week) and the brilliant Mikayla Williams (13 points, six rebounds and three steals in one of her quieter nights) are leading the way for Tim Shortt’s team.
The Bearcats meanwhile have been stuttering early in 2023 at 2-2 with last week’s game versus the Rockets and competitors the Panthers an alarming early start for the reigning champions. Both teams are even in their numbers for 2023 with the Sabres averaging about an extra six points per game currently but there is one area the Sabres have increased is there on-ball pressure averaging 14.8 steals per game (#1 in the league).
The Sabres have upped their defensive end of their game early and the Bearcats seem to have not adjusted just yet. Returning to commanding rebounding and points inside is the key to victory this round. I think the Sabres are just in that much better form however do not write off last year’s champions especially if Coleman (17 points, seven rebounds, three assists) and Aquino (19 points) can lift those inside paint stats.
Key Stat – In last year’s grand final the Bearcats won via points in the paint domination 50-30 which resulted in 18 second chance points – so far in 2023 the Bearcats average in their key losses to the Panthers and Rockets is 37 points in the paint and 6.5 second chance points.
COD Prediction: Sabres by 5 points
Men (8:15pm)
The Sabres were mighty impressive against the Eagles last week minus Rigoni and Daly, their rebounding and ability to restrict their opposition at the offensive end earnt them the chance for the win and they took it. Keanu “The One” Rasmussen was electric again with 21 points and nine rebounds and with Forbes (17 points, eight rebounds and three steals) forms a duo that when Rigoni and Daly return will make the Sabres no push over.
The pre-season favourites on paper finally delivered and the key inclusion was Olbrich – immediately bringing structure and balance to the line-up. Not only that but now you have a Batman and Robin off the bench in Roxburgh (19 points) and Stock (18 points) to come in and fill it up for the minimal pine time for McCarron (10 points, six rebounds, fours assists and three steals), DeSantis (22 points) and Drmic (16 points, seven rebounds, four assists).
They showed an intensity I hadn’t seen so far this season in the amount I watched of this team and it was scary for the rest of the competition. Only tonight will tell if it was the flash in the pan with an uber talented roster – or if this is the beginning of the predicted rise of the West and I think it’s the latter.
Key Stat – The Bearcats blitzed the Rockets out of the blocks with 5-26 in the first term and ended up with 18 triples at 44 percent.
COD Prediction: Bearcats by 22 points
Saturday 22/04/2023
South Adelaide Panthers vs Forestville Eagles – (Mitchell Park Sports and Community Centre – The Jungle)
Women (6:30pm)
The Panthers are on the move early in 2023 #1 in multiple categories after multiple impressive wins. They are #1 in scoring (84.8), three-point percentage (38.5), Offensive (18.8), Total Rebounds (51.5), Offensive Rating (103.7), Net Rating (80.3), Effective Field Goal Percent (46.7) and True Shooting Percent (50.1). The biggest shift has been Holly Forbes (19.5 points #6 in the league with 9.2 rebounds) getting a full run at it – its open up the Panthers at both ends of the floor for everyone to complement their roles.
The Eagles record as good as it is does need a little understanding. In their three wins against the Tigers, Rockets and Mavericks they averaged 72.7 points, 41 rebounds, 10.3 turnovers and 19 assists. Against the contenders in the Sabres, it was 64 points, 35 rebounds, 20 turnovers and nine assists. When the heat was turned up – it singed their wings after their flying start. With Borlase still not quite ready to go (but hopefully soon as you’ll see here in my interview with her) its hard to see them shooting down the Panthers with the form they’ve started 2023 in at the Jungle.
Key Stat – The combo of Forbes, Ash Spencer and Jordan Hunter has a rating of 107.1 – with Forbes feeding off both with deep paint touches at 41 percent of her scores.
COD Prediction: Panthers by 25 points
Men (8:15pm)
The spectre of loss in 2022 looms over the Eagles and no doubt after getting pantsed by the Sabres last week – Andy Simon’s side is hungry for a bit of revenge. It might be just the wake up call the Eagles needed. Their offensive ability was slashed by the Sabres through denying ball movement (-8 in assists), denied deep paint touches for scores as well as the wing triples and left corner. The positive was Brad Rathjen stepped up with 22 points and Owen Hulland (14 points, 13 rebounds and nearly the overtime setter) found some good touch ready to play his former side.
In their championship year the Panthers won four of their games by less than two baskets – this Scott Ninnis less side knows how to get out of jail in a close one and they did it once again. Of course, Starling it was again with 32 points and seven rebounds including three triples in the final minutes to stave off the Lions but they’ve found more depth again this year. That’s means by design this Panthers team is better than the one that beat the Eagles four times in 2022. I’ve got a hunch that last week was a little scrappy with the Panthers held well by the Lions which makes me think that this one will go deep. The home side however should find a way even if it goes to over time another way to get across the line.
Key Stat – Adam Doyle had just one assist in the loss to the Sabres after averaging 5.5 per game in all their wins.
COD Prediction: Panthers by 3 points in OT
Southern Tigers vs Central District Lions – (Morphett Vale – The Cage)
Women (6:30pm)
The Tigers suffered another uncharacteristic defeat last weekend to the Flames and will start a run of games where they really will need to find their prowl. Taking care of the Safari/Clarke Cup is the most important job first up and the Tigers will need two big game from their imports to return to form. Martin and Hernandez were down a little last week till Brittany got going in the second half. McKendrick (19 points and 19 rebounds) is in incredible form, but she needs some help on the scoreboard if they are to overcome the Lions.
While the Lions have been flattened by the Flames and Panthers in consecutive games, these clashes always are much closer than anticipated. There’s plenty of motivation for Jaedyn De La Cerda averaging nine points per game since her first two game average of 22 points to fire up for this one against her former side. Imani Guy (17 points and 16 rebounds) has also found some handy touch in an area the Tigers are still vulnerable in underneath the hoop. The tipping point in this one is the points conceded with the Lions giving up 91.5 per game compared to the Tigers #2 in the league for less points conceded with only the 63.8 per game (Scores of 64, 58, 58 and 75) – and that’s why they’ll take the cup out.
Key Stat – Defence is clearly not an issue for the Tigers in 2023 but it’s the offensive production #8 in the league (68.2) with 30 percent of their total inside shots coming from inside the paint. To add to that only McKendrick has made more than 10 attempts inside the paint – telling numbers.
COD Prediction: Tigers by 8 points
Men (8:15pm)
This should be a fun one between two athletic teams that pushed their opposition all the way to the edge last week. The pleasing thing for coach Scott Freer was the effort across the five quarters against the Flames forcing the first overtime (of course by his admission they had their chances to win it in regulation). It was Fabian “Magic” Johnson who was simply that with 36 points turning it on, now he needs to make that the norm rather than the vanishing act of previous seasons after a huge game. The stats will be a little weighed differently with a few missing pieces but you can’t deny they still tell the tale of the Tiger early in 2023. Their opponents average 12 turnovers and concede 11 steals telling you winning more possession in the game is key moving forward.
They couldn’t have played much better last week the Lions against the reigning champs and only a Star-ling bomb separated defeat and victory. It was scrappy again but Branden Jenkins (39 points and five triples) and Kevin Baker (24 points and 10 rebounds) are starting to form a handy duo for the team north of the expressway. The Lions are in the bottom three for a majority of the key numbers but are top three in winning possession through steals averaging 16.5. Both teams gained confidence last week but I just feel the Lions may have gained a little more and have a few more experienced heads playing together – and they’ll get Sapwell’s inaugural win of the 2023 season and first as coach since the early 2010s.
Key Stat – The Lions love shooting from beyond pride rock – they average 46.2 percent attempts but need to improve the clip only hitting 28.5 percent.
COD Prediction: Lions by 4 points
North Adelaide Rockets vs Woodville Warriors – (The Lights – The Launch Pad)
Women (6:30pm)
This one isn’t as straight forward as you think despite a tremendous victory for the Rockets against an early favourite. The Lightning duo of Mansfield (20 points, eight assists, five rebounds and four steals) and Brooke Basham (25 points, seven rebounds and five assists) were firing on all cylinders last week but I’m looking at the matchups being in favour of the away side this week. Both Erica Meyer (6.5 points and 5.5 rebounds) and Tayla Corrigan (7.7 points and 6.7 rebounds) could have tough assignments ahead with the Warriors front court on of the inform ones in the league.
Both Fransson (a mammoth 21 points and 23 rebound bacon double double) and Perkas (16 points and 13 rebounds) have been the architects of every Warriors win in 2023 and while taking care of the Mavs as expected – tonight is a huge challenge in a battle of both courts. It’s a meeting of the minds between Shaw and Johnston as well and while I think the rockets might take this one if there’s an upset this weekend – it’s the Warriors that can be the ones to do it.
Key Stat – Its front court versus back court with the Rockets #7 in the league for assists with 14.7 but in their wins its 20. The Warriors are #3 in offensive rebounds with 17.3 but average 18.5 turnovers in their losses.
COD Prediction: Rockets by 3 points
Men (8:15pm)
It was a rude awakening for the Rockets who ran into a rampant Bearcats outfit, but I’ll put it as an outlier considering their recent form. Defence seems to be the thing that the Rockets are working hard on as noted by conceding an average of 112.5 in their losses to the Eagles and the Bearcats. The rebounding is telling for the momentum of Mikey Rogers side which is -13 in losses in 2023.
The Warriors are clocking along nicely without doing too many different things. They aren’t top of every category this year as they were many in 2022 but they are #1 in the league for keys such as bench points (thanks to Dev McGee with 15.8), least turnovers conceded (12), least fouls conceded (14.5) and least points conceded (73). Its hard to see the Warriors doing too much different at the defensive end where they are getting victory and I think that’ll continue to win number five for the season.
Key Stat – When the Warriors turn up the defence they only give up 33 percent inside the deep paint, 15 percent from the right wing and 12.6 percent from the left wing triple.
COD Prediction: Warriors by 7 points
Sunday 23/04/2023
Eastern Mavericks vs Norwood Flames – (St Francis – The Shooting Gallery)
Women (1:30pm)
The Mavs have looked the competitive unit once again but its about the full 40 minutes for Vikki Kelson’s youthful side. Its ebbing and flowing with sometimes the “down” quarter coming any of the first, second, third or final making it difficult to pinpoint exactly where the improvement can come from quickly. Even looking over the stats the Mavs have been super competitive in all areas possibly averaging 62 points per game may be the major contributor – but if they can keep feeding Jannon Otto (19.25 points and 11 rebounds per game), Taylah Levy (12.3 points, five rebounds and four assists) and Bradley (9.3 points and 6.3 rebounds) then points will start to drop.
The Flames meanwhile have found some form the last few weeks and the Tigers win was mighty impressive. Wilson was solid again without needing to get out of multi gears but it was Kerridge (21 points, six rebounds, three assists and two steals) and Sharna Thompson (21 points with four triples to lead the league in makes) that have made me take some more notice of a team I thought was going to go down the rebuild path. A month ago, I was quite convinced of who might win this one but I’m going to flip my tip now after their win over the Tigers last week to the Flames – but beware the Mavs will score an upset very soon…
Key Stat – The Flames in their wins this season are +30 in points, +9 in points from turnover, +11 in assists and +10 in total rebounds – that’s the Ally Wilson effect.
COD Prediction: Flames by 12 points
Men (3:15pm)
The Mavs are starting to put some pieces together and it is showing in the numbers that another win is not too far away. The Mavs have moved themselves off the bottom in 2023 in scoring, points in the paint, second chance points, rebounding, assists and most importantly turnovers – in fact they conceded only the 15.8 this season (#5 in the league). Dan Wray has addressed some key deficiencies that make the Mavs more competitive. It’s led by a collective effort to look after the ball more with only the top player conceding 4.2 per game.
The Flames have recruited well in finding Jack Stanwix who not only showed us he’s a finisher but posted the sixth 40-point game (behind Olivia Levicki, Jack McVeigh, Sam Simons, Joel Spear, Nate Sheppard) in both divisions in league since it began as NBL1 in 2021. In combo with Webber, Lycett and an awoken Collin Smith – they got out of jail against the Tigers last week. I still feel the Mavs at home will be a hard beat and with some tough games ahead (Sabres and Bearcats next) they need this one to show reward for effort.
Key Stat – The Mavs are straight shooting team in 2023 – they take 9.2 percent of their shots from the middle three and have made 36 which is #3 in the league in 2023.
COD Prediction: Mavericks by 6 points
We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in Round 5 between the Woodville Warriors and the South Adelaide Panthers on Kayo and Kayo Freebies Tuesday ANZAC Day.
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