Time to strike: The Adelaide Lightning were "brave" in their first three games of the season in narrow encouraging losses, now its time to convert that form into their first win tonight - Photo credit to WNBL
3-Minute Read
WNBL ROUND 3
Adelaide Lightning vs Sydney Flames
When: 7:00pm (ACDT), Saturday 19 November
Where: Adelaide 36ers Arena (Formerly Adelaide/TS Arena – The Lighthouse)
Broadcast: Nine Now
STRIKE BACK IN HISTORY
Round 6 2015/2016: Boag big night takes out brave Lightning
My random research back in the 2020 WNBL hub season uncovered that former Sydney Flames forward Carly Boag loved playing our girls. In Round 6 of the 2015/2016 season, in her debut season – Boag produced 10 points and 7 rebounds and along with Tahlia Tupaea (Recent UC Capitals) and Kate Ebzery (Former Opal and Perth Lynx player) knocked off the Lightning who were closer than they had been all season to getting their first win.
There were big games from current Townsville Fire forward Mikaela Ruef (18 points) and former Southside Flyer Leilani Mitchell (17 points and 7 assists) as well as contributions from Mikaela Dombkins with 15 points and recent Southern Tigers NBL1 Central centre Tara Dodman (nee Robinson) with 11 points.
Key Matchups
Lauren Mansfield vs Shyla Heal
Last season the Lightning got spurts of point guard play from their import Kiana Williams – now Mansfield has the keys to that position. An injury disrupted season seems to have been overcome and her numbers are showing positive early season form. Already she is #7 in the league for assists with 5.3 while also contributing 13.3 points per game
Much of the Flames fate will rest on the awaiting Opal. Heal has started the season a little quietly but coach Nat Hurst and her team will be under no false illusions of the damage she can cause.
Marena Whittle vs Jocelyn Willoughby
There is some doubt over Talbot for tonight so if she does miss then Whittle will need a “next-level” game to really give the Lightning momentum. She has translated her NBL1 Ringwood and 3×3 CG form to the new season already averaging 10.7 points and 4.7 rebounds.
It looks like unlike the import revolving door of last season – the Flames have a good one. Willoughby already is leading the scoring (#5 in the league) with 18.5 points for the Flames and already featuring in the league top ten for steals. She’s a dangerously versatile player which needs to be stopped by the Lightning from lighting up – she averages 57.1 percent from beyond the arc.
Isobel Borlase vs Vanessa Panousis
The breakout from Borlase shouldn’t be a surprise as you’ll read below – but it is! The jump in form between her one WNBL game to this season has been tremendous and given her side a different dynamic. She’s proven in her first three games how much stronger in dribble penetration and finishing at the rim she has become in the form of an average of 17.3 points while adding 3.7 assists – plus finishing at the charity stripe shooting 76.9 percent.
Panousis inclusion has added to the depth of the Flames this season. In questions over the Flames defence, the former one time Lighting and NBL1 East Sutherland Sharks product brings a tenacity to the Flames guard rotations. Expect her to wear some of the matchup of Mansfield and Bell throughout tonight’s contest.
THREE QUESTIONS TO STRIKE ON
Where has this form come from for Izzy?
You saw it in the FIBA Asia Womens U18 World Cup for the Gems and the backend of the NBL1 Wildcard series. Borlase was named in the all-star five for the cup after averaging 14.4 points, 7.6 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 2.8 steals per game. She also grabbed 14 rebounds in the final to secure that nomination. Borlase also scored an average 13.5 points per game with the COE across the backend of the season. She had some big final quarters when challenged during that competition as well as pointed out by Daniel Herborn of the Pick and Roll.
How do the Flames address the defensive end of the floor?
The Flames gave up an average of 78.5 points in their first two games. In season 2021/2022 they gave up an average of 76 – the leagues best the Melbourne Boomers give up 66. The addition of Willoughby, Panousis and Managakahia are going to help reel back those 10 plus points which have been the difference between Ws and Ls. Coach Heal is going to have to be strong on his rotations and balance the guard lineup he has with the offensive firepower he has at his disposal.
If not Talbot – who steps up for the Lightning to get them across the line?
Its time for a big game from one of the Lightning’s new faces. Kierstan Bell has started with an average of 10 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game. The WNBA #11 draft pick and LV Aces championship player can endear herself with a huge game – especially if our Opal hero is not quite ready yet.
So who wins?
With both teams winless in the early part of the season – this one is an early must win for both sides. The Lightning at home now after three “brave” performances against top early pre-season predicted contenders showed plenty. A big Adelaide crowd and back at the home where Sydney have not won at since the 12th January 2017.
Think the Lightning will get this one comfortably and get their campaign underway.
COD Prediction: Lightning by 14 points
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CROSS OVER DRIBBLE 