WNBL RD 8 – Post Christmas test awaits Lightning from spirited Bendigo

If the Adelaide Lightning are to feature in the playoffs conversation in the second half of the season – tonight’s huge matchup against the Bendigo Spirit will determine whether the Lightning’s Christmas future belongs there.

But the Griffin ghost of Christmas past matchup hangs over their last loss…

The ghost of Christmas past: Kelsey Griffin was the difference the last time they met and will once again need to be quelled in this matchup where the Lightning need to begin making their run - Photo credit to WNBL

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WNBL ROUND 8

Adelaide Lightning vs Bendigo Spirit

When: 7:00pm (ACDT), Thursday 28 December

Where:  Adelaide 36ers Arena (Formerly Adelaide/TS Arena – The Lighthouse)

Broadcast: ESPN, Kayo Sports

STRIKE BACK IN HISTORY

Giant Gahan lifts Lightning into Semis  

A classic match from back in the Lightning’s last golden era in the summer of 2009 – both teams playing off in an elimination final at the Lighthouse. The game featured now WNBL stars in Cayla Francis (George) and Mia Newley (Murray) and Kelly Wilson. The Spirit came in on a seven game winning streak setting the stage for the sudden death encounter.

The opening quarter was tight with the home side leading 20-18 before the Spirit hit the lead 40-41 at the half. The Spirit shot 62 percent led by now Melbourne Boomers assistant and Opal Kristi Harrower. The Lightning made their move in the third with a 22-11 quarter led by guard Angela Marino and Francis’s flurry of triples and nullified the Spirit to 29 percent from the field. They led 62-53 to open up the biggest lead of the game.

The Lightning held it and ran out winners 81-73 in the finish. Tracy Gahan the WNBA draft pick of 2002 and experienced European centre was enormous finishing with 18 points, 9 rebounds and 4 assists while Rebecca Duke top scored for the home side with 19 points and 7 rebounds. Harrower always kept the Spirit in the contest with 22 points, 7 assists and 5 rebounds and former Lightning player who played for 13 years in the WNBL Lauren King was next best with 15 points.

Checkout the latest WNBL snaps from the Lightning’s last home game versus Melbourne Boomers

Key Matchups

Lauren Mansfield vs Kelly Wilson    

Mansfield had just the five points – a season low for her against the Spirit in Mildura. In the Lightning’s three wins this season she averages 14 points and 6 assists so her contribution to this team can’t be underestimated.

Wilson nullified Mansfield’s influence last time and will be looking to do so again. She’s a key part of this Spirit side that can lead from the point guard position. The amount both players can dish and dime for their team is going to go a long way to determining the result of this one.

Steph Talbot vs Kelsey Griffin

Talbot has been in incredible form averaging 17.5 points, 3.5 rebounds and two steal per game her last two matches – she’s risen to her World Cup form. She’s going to need that again tonight after an on looker from the commentary box at that tournament tore the Lightning to shreds in Mildura.

Griffin was the difference the last time they met with 30 points, 10 rebounds, six steals and three assists – but it was the final quarter when the game needed to be broken open where she took stock. She had 13 in the final term and will need to be stopped if the Lightning are any chance tonight. It’s up to the best defender in the team Talbot to take the matchup and make it hers.

Chelsea Brook vs Alicia Froling

Brook has hit her season best form at the right time for the Lightning. I’m a huge fan of her and her game so its great to see her back to averaging 7.5 points and 3.5 rebounds the last three games. She shot the ball at over 50 percent from the field so lets hope she lets that thing fly once again.

Froling has been the x-factor as I pointed out in my recent piece for pick and roll. Averaging a career high 11 points and 3.5 rebounds – she’s the perfect foil and backup to Griffin and Anneli Maley.

 

THREE QUESTIONS TO STRIKE ON

Are the Lightning the unluckiest team of the season?  

There’s a big case building for it – the details of their record speak for themselves. They are 0-6 against the top four teams and 3-0 against the bottom four but have also held leads in final quarters against top four teams. Their average losing margin is 9.5 points meaning the Lightning have always been in every contest except the outlier the Boomers game at home. That perhaps comes down to finding those closing combinations for the Lightning in those final quarters – we’ll see what work Nat Hurst has done since the Boomers games.

How do the Spirit make sure they keep the engine of Griffin motoring?  

Its a legit question as given she’s a star – she is 35 years old and needs game to game management still. The Spirit are an average 24 years of age but the starters average 30.6 which makes them one of the most experienced but also a team that could have to call on its depth in various parts of the season. The form of Froling and having Megan McKay helps Griffin stay in top form which was a question mark I had prior to the season for this team.

What did the Flyers do to stop the Spirit streak that the Lightning need to repeat?    

It was about three things they mainly did at both ends of the floor. The Flyers first all limited the number of clean three point attempts for the Spirit with 19 shots and forced them to 26.3 percent. Then at their offensive end they dished 27 assists so ball movement and making the Spirit defence work the 24 second shot clock was key to wearing them down. The final thing was limiting the second chance opportunities – they only gave up three points for the match.

Its not the style of Lightning to play long clock but perhaps for patches tonight they need to.

So who wins?

The Lightning have shown they can compete this season but now is the time they have to make a move on the table – it starts with tonight’s match against the Spirit. In their favour is the fact the Spirit haven’t won at the Lighthouse since 2016 and the homeside has a 5-1 record at the venue.

If the Lightning can get this one then they can get on a big roll with some very winnable games coming up at home and away. A loss here though and they start to slip away from the top four and would be four wins behind the Flyers.

Its going to be a tight one but I’m backing the home-side who needs this more – tonight we learn plenty about where this Lightning team really are at heading to the second half of the season.

COD Prediction: Lightning by 1 point

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