How does this story end: A drought of 8 or 24 years will be broken tonight and there are some key protagonists in this unfinished script.
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*The following article may have excerpts appear on the Basketball South Australia website to broaden reach of analysis
Men’s Grand Final Preview: Woodville Warriors vs South Adelaide Panthers
When: 8:30pm (ACST), Saturday September 3
Where: The Lights Community and Sports Centre, Lightsview
Broadcast: Kayo Freebies, www.nbl1.com.au
The last time
Woodville Warriors 97 (Stepney 29, Humphries 18, Jackson 14, A Maiorana 12, Meldrum, Wurm 11) defeated South Adelaide Panthers 77 (Smith 33, Starling 15) – Qualifying Semi-Final at the Castle
How they got here
The Warriors came in after the first week off in questionable form but also many suspected they were just readying themselves for when it counted. They have done that so many times this season and another opportunity presented itself at the beginning of the fourth quarter of the Qualifying Final. That’s when an incredible haul from import Jawan Stepney stepped the Warriors up to their first Grand Final since 2014 as they grabbed hold of the Panthers 97-77 at the Castle. Stepney showed up and showered them in as he dropped 19 final quarter points including 5 of 5 beyond the arc as the last resistance of the Panthers who clung on after leading at quarter time were washed away.
For the Panthers, it was two incredible turning back the clock performances that stunned the Eagles and gave them their first finals win in 14 years 90-105 at the Nest. Orchestrated by master coach the legendary Scott Ninnis, the Panthers channelled every part of him and the way he played to a tee particularly through two-time Woollacott medallist Alex Starling and veteran Sam Johns. After being stunned by Stepney and the Warriors- the Panthers made their move in the Preliminary Final. It was incredible scenes that awashed the Jungle as the Panthers booked their first Grand Final appearance since 1998 with an upset 85-70 win over the pre-season favourites Forestville Eagles. The Scott Ninnis led team had no shortage of cameos and another superstar performance from Woollacott Medallist Jeremy Smith.
It’s the “Fairytale” Panthers and the “Last Dance” Warriors who have been building to this moment with likely several players having their last crack at the ship. Led by the two Scott’s – an all-time classic is on the cards.
Championship history
Woodville Warriors who formed in 1982 have been a part of four Grand Finals winning three of them in 2000, 2005 and 2014. This will be their fifth Grand Final upcoming where their average winning margin in the big dance has been 5 points. The 2014 Grand Final remains memorable for the performance of Woollacott Medallist and current Panthers star Alex Starling (36 points) and the late heroics of Adam Miller and Darren Ng (having a single season with the club in between his NBL career wind-down). Notable Championship winners of this club include Cameron Wilson who played in all three Grand Finals as Captain, Craig Gilbert who was also Captain of the 2000 team and the coach who could add to his already studded CV- Scott Whitmore.
It has been a long time for the South Adelaide Panthers in fact 24 years since their last championship and 19 years since their last appearance. In their long history they have made seventeen Grand Finals including a string of seven in a row from 1963-1973. That was the era of the great Michael Ah-Matt, Dean Whitford, Scott Davie and starting centre Bruce Ninnis. They won five of those while the Panthers of the late 80s and 90s made eight winning five of them through stars Mark Davis, Scott Ninnis, Craig Adams, Darren Breeding, Matt Reece and Ron Nunnelly. Much like Whitmore, Ninnis can further elevate his colours into the ceiling of the Shed at Marion if he adds this one.
These two teams have also never met in a Grand Final in over 40 years of playing each other- history again will be made Saturday night.
The stats
– The Warriors are one of the most evenly balanced teams in the Mens in 2022. They have had seven times this season 5 or more players score double figures plus 15 games where they have had 4 or more with at least one more player on 8 or 9 points. In their three losses this season it’s been 4, 3 and 2 players in double figures. That’s generated from the high assist count as the number two team in the competition with 22.3 and their highly efficient number one in field goal percentage 47.8, 36.6 in three-point percent, 10.1 in steals and least in turnovers 11.5.
– The Panthers rely on getting opposition to turn the ball over hence the high steal count ranking them number two in the competition of 9.9. That produces the third most number of points per game (85.1) however their other key statistics rank fourth or below. It’s a team where the stats don’t tell the full story of how far they’ve come.
– The Warriors evenness is proven in the rankings with Jawan Stepney, Nick Wurm, David Humphries, Joe Jackson in the top 50 scoring averages but Stepney the highest averages 17.3 at #16. In rebounding – it’s Jackson, Humphries, Stepney and McGee with Jackson grabbing 8.3 at #9. In assists – it’s Stepney, Humphries, Wurm, Riley Meldrum, James Boonstoppel and Jackson with Stepney at 4.4 at #10. The steals are where they really excel though with Humphries ranked #3 with 2.6 and five others in the top 50 in 2022.
– The Panthers have two clear standouts in the statistics that drive everything. Smith is #1 in points per game (26.6), #30 in rebounds per game (5.4), #23 in assists per game (3) and in the top 50 for steals per game. Starling is highly ranked as well as the #2 for steals (2.8), #3 for rebounds (11.8), #9 for points (19.5) and #21 for assists (3.1). The rest get it done by committee.
The Money Men
David Humphries – The quiet achiever for the Warriors is also their ultra-consistent go to player in the crunch. You know he’s going to produce game in game out and the big final should be no exception.
Jeremy Smith – If the Panthers are to break their drought, then Smith must produce 25 plus for them to be a chance. The Warriors defence have been “The Mid-Range Marvel’s” kryptonite having averaged 18.3 against the top of the table side.
The Reliable Men
Joe Jackson – Jackson surprisingly hasn’t been in the spotlight you feel as much in his second season compared to 2021. That won’t worry him whatsoever as his production of close to a double double on a weekly basis is the glue that holds the Warriors front court together. He’s a permanent fixture in the Warriors lineup.
Alex Starling – Part of the last Warriors championship is on the other side of the fence this time. Speaking to him time and time again, Starling feels very comfortable with his game despite being not quite the player he was a decade ago. The numbers if anything have slightly peaked in other areas and that makes him extremely reliable for the Panthers. The most impressive thing is in the Preliminary Final he played with three fouls for over three quarters- that’s reliable.
The X-Factors
Jawan Stepney – If the last time they met is anything to go by- everyone knows that Stepney is the game breaker for the Warriors. 19 points including 5 from 5 ridiculous triples sunk the ship for the Panthers at the Castle. If the game is on the line the ball will be likely in his hands and we might see something special in the finish just like we did for the Warriors in 2014.
Jarryd Hoppo – His impact, enthusiasm and importance is unquestionable. The Panthers huge victories of this season have seen this young man grow the confidence Ninnis has exuded. When the Panthers need a late hero; it could be fittingly the fan favourite that finds the match winning play in the finish.
COD Prediction: Warriors by 5 points/David Humphries Grand Final MVP
Catch all the NBL1 Central action tonight on the NBL1 website, app on Kayo and Kayo Freebies
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