Too close to call: Several of the week one finals matchups are too close to call with only a small difference between the teams. Pictures by Snap Shot Photography, Picture IT Sports Photography and AllStar Photos
3-Minute Read
Qualifying Final
South Adelaide Panthers vs Sturt Sabres
Women (6:00pm) – The Jungle
Results this Season
South Adelaide Panthers 81 (Spencer, Levicki 20, Johnson 16) defeated Sturt Sabres 73 (Prosser 19, Williams 16, N Mathews, K Mathews 10)
Sturt Sabres 78 (K Mathews 21, Williams 15) defeated South Adelaide Panthers 70 (Sigurdardottir 16, Johnson 15, Spencer 13)
Matchups that Matter
Jade Johnson vs Kayla Mathews
The former Sabre was not allowed to do damage by opposition defenders in the 2021 season so the start to this final series is a serious case of redemption. The formline is very good for the combo guard with 18, 15 and 18 coming into the series. Her former team-mate in Kayla Mathews will be waiting for her to lock her down and deal some points herself having dropped 21 against them in their last meeting.
Isa Sigurdardottir vs Mikayla Williams
Is it worth the roll of the dice on the rolled ankle? In some ways they must although we know the import will likely not be 100 percent physically fit, her presence alone curtails the influence of the woman that could be wearing the Halls medal by Sunday afternoon. The ultra-consistent Williams is a pivotal piece in this game; if the Sabres can get her to got for a double double of 20 and 15 plus its gives them a good chance of proving many doubters wrong.
Holly Forbes vs Jasmin Rigoni
Big time impact is needed off the bench for both teams with Forbes and Rigoni the likely two to influence the outcome. It’s been a quiet build up for Forbes but the numbers are beginning to track north with another double double last round of the season. Rigoni meanwhile needs to fill the void scoring punch-wise with Close, Brazel and Dyer not there her average of 17 minutes are vital that she puts double figures into the contest.
Key Statistics
For a team that lacks the height of others the Panthers lead the Sabres in rebounding by +6 which is the standout marker between these two. For the Sabres their arc shooting of 31 percent is +5 over the Panthers which needs to be considering the number of points they make against the top 5 sides of 72 per game. The Sabres won last time shooting 10 triples and scoring 21 points from 27 turnovers from the Panthers. The Panthers the time before won through the free throw line with 16/22 at 73 percent
The Central Closer
The injury to Sigurdardottir complicates my decision as her influence over Williams is vital in this game and brings this back to a much closer contest than before. I personally haven’t been sold on the Sabres all season and the Panthers form has been of concern leading in. There has to be a game breaker and I think after a quiet finals series last year Jade Johnson is going to put in a huge one and the Panthers will sneak over the line.
COD Prediction: Panthers by 5 points
Elimination Final
Forestville Eagles vs Norwood Flames
Women (6:15pm) – The Nest
Results this season
Forestville Eagles 78 (Hines 20, M Freer 17, Annetts 15) defeated Norwood Flames 70 (Anderson, Wilson 18, Coleman 16, Basham 12)
Norwood Flames 66 (Coleman 19, Basham 14) defeated by Forestville Eagles 70 (Hines 16, M Freer 15, S Simons 12)
Matchups that Matter
Bella Stratford vs Ally Wilson
One of the toughest assignments of the weekend has to fall to Stratford who is one of the few Eagles that can possibly nullify the superstar of the Flames. Wilson is in irresistible form and guided her team into the finals with her last few minutes of play; what she does will deceide the outcome of this one.
Sam Simons vs Brooke Basham
The question for Simons is can she elevate her game to the next level in this final? She’s had just the 10 and 12 points against the Flames this season and as much as it’s been even contributions in their two wins this season; she must go up a gear for her team to get home in this one. The other side is her former teammate and WNBL teammate Basham who knows she’s come up short in a few key patches for the Flames in important games. Tonight is a brilliant night for both players to show what they are made of…
Rachael Hines vs Molly Coleman
The two standouts from the previous two games on the scoreboard. Hines dropped 20 points and was a difficult matchup for the Flames at the Nest while Coleman was equally a struggle to contain in a large patch at the Firedome. What they both do can swing the contest.
Key Statistics
The games between these two statistically have been so close and if one has blown out its been the efficiency of the Eagles shooting from only 65 shots in their earlier encounter they made 43 percent and 71 shots the more recent encounter made 35 percent but also made 17 points from 22 uncharacteristic turnovers from the Flames.
The Central Closer
This is the most even contest of the night and nothing in the statistics or form separates the two. It is purely going to come down to who can swing the hardest when their run is happening. I think this one is going to overtime then as I backed the Flames to go deep into the finals; Wilson will find a way yet again and take them through to the semi-finals in week two
COD Prediction: Flames by 4 points in OT
Qualifying Final
Forestville Eagles vs South Adelaide Panthers
Men (8:00pm) – The Nest
Results this Season
South Adelaide Panthers 92 (Smith 33, Starling 24) defeated Forestville Eagles 80 (Machar 24, Rios, Mays 18)
Forestville Eagles 81 (Doyle 24, Ipassou 17, Brine 16, Machar 12) defeated by South Adelaide Panthers 82 (Smith 35, Starling 22)
Matchups that Matter
Malith Machar vs Jeremy Smith
The salivating match-up of the Mens comes from the recently signed Melbourne United DP (and deservedly so) in Machar and the “Mid-Range Marvel” in Smith. The length and speed of Machar can worry Smith but so far with an average of 34 per game against the Eagles that hasn’t happened. It seems to be the Eagles Achilles claw the shooting guard positions and defending it as well in their losses; Machar has to keep Smith to less than 30 for them to win
Daniel Johnson vs Alex Starling
DJ knows how to do it in big games but so does Alex Starling. The two time Woollacott Medallist takes on the one-time and NBL star and will not be awed having dropped 36 points in the 2014 Grand Final but over 8 years later can he still capture that kind of form we saw back in the early 2010s. DJ hasn’t played the Panthers at all this season and this makes his inclusion a huge boost for the Eagles.
Brandon Brine vs Jarryd Hoppo
The new Dad will be charged up and always comes up big when the finals roll around (just go back and watch his 2016 Grand Final) and will be a key element off the bench or if the Eagles choose to go mobile might even start this one. Hoppo however epitomises the Panthers rise in respect and form; Ninnis has unlocked in him what we’ve all seen he’s capable of and he is the most inspiring of the Panthers for not only his team but the club fans as well who will get right behind them.
Key Statistics
The Panthers have done a good job forcing the Eagles into sloppy ball movement forcing them into 13 and 17 turnovers from 9 and 13 steals which the likes of Smith and Starling have capitalise on. Those numbers don’t compare to the overall ones and standout as keys to this game.
The Central Closer
The Eagles have been raging favourites from the start and after some lean years (A title in 2019 the only one since 2013) under Andy Simons including going out in straight sets in 2021; I think they’ll be keen to get their campaign off to a winning start with the 36ers duo of Doyle and DJ likely to be the difference.
COD Prediction: Eagles by 7 points
Elimination Final
Norwood Flames vs North Adelaide Rockets
Men (7:45pm) – The Firedome
Results this Season
Norwood Flames 103 (Green, Lycett 21, Barei 19) defeated North Adelaide Rockets 74 (Winn 19, Akoh 15)
North Adelaide Rockets 71 (Winn 20, Dau 15, Marshall 14, Harrap 12) defeated by Norwood Flames 92 (Lycett 30, McBride 17)
Matchups that Matter
Matt Lycett vs Terry Winn
Lycett came up big twice against the Rockets this season and his form is a barometer for the Flames. Averaging 25.5 points and 8 rebounds in both games he also has the likely task of taking on Terry Winn who’s been outstanding all year for the Rockets. The outcome of this matchup elevates either side.
Anthony Green vs Jamar Akoh
When both are going they inspire and put on a show for their side. Both are different types of centres with Green the athletic dunking machine and rim protector while Akoh is a back-to-basket body on opponent muscle out type. Both have a strong chance to influence who wins the rebounds and more importantly keep their team alive.
Luca Barei vs Dylan Marshall
Barei has been very solid in the latter part of the season averaging 15.25 points across the last month and provides the spark off the pine for the Flames. Marshall has been forced to step up in the absence of Brad Rathjen’s arm injury and he’s taken it with aplomb averaging 9.5 in the last two games. These two are the future for both clubs and a matchup one each other sometime in the evening is extremely likely.
Key Statistics
The Flames shot an extremely high percentage in both games with 47 percent and 36 percent beyond the arc on average. The Rockets have allowed the Flames to what they will in both games; they’ll have a heavy scout on the shooters in this one.
The Central Closer
Again, this is another one that’s going to be significantly closer and you feel that its going to come down to experience and which coach can get the most out of their players. The Rockets title defence is still alive, and I think Nyberg who has a habit of finding something in his players will get his team across the line despite a roaring effort from the Flames to take it to overtime…
COD Prediction: Rockets by 2 points in OT
We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in the first week of the finals between the Forestville Eagles/Norwood Flames and South Adelaide Panthers on Kayo and Kayo Freebies tonight.
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