Flame to Fire: Morgan Yaeger (left) taking on Norwood Flames Brooke Basham will be buoyed by a new WNBL contract for the Townsville Fire, right as her Tigers are starting to sharpen their claws with a favourable draw. Picture by Picture IT Sports Photography
3-Minute Read
Round 15
Saturday 16/07/2022
Forestville Eagles vs West Adelaide Bearcats (Wayville – The Nest)
Women (6:15pm)
LTTM: West Adelaide Bearcats 81 (Brenton 16, Fejo 15, Simmons 14, Rintala 13, K Pearce 12) defeated Forestville Eagles 67 (S Simons 21, J Simons 13) – Split 14 points to Bearcats
Although it was 14 points the last time they met at the Bearcat cave it came down to a five-minute patch that separated these two sides. Jasmin Fejo nailed three consecutive triples to open the game right up before the Bearcat defence locked down the Eagles for an 19-8 quarter. If the Eagles are to win this they can’t allow that to happen again; they have the tools to topple the ten-in-a-row West Adelaide but I think the Bearcats might continue on with too many other options at their disposal.
Key Stat – Both Simons combined for 34 of their 67 points last time they met; they’ll need plenty out of the rest to get a big enough score to win
ESPN Prediction: Bearcats by 7 points
Men (8:00pm)
LTTM: West Adelaide Bearcats 86 (Sheppard 30, Cadzow 16, DeSantis 14, Washington 12) lost to Forestville Eagles 100 (Johnson, Machar 24, Mays 19, Doyle 12) – Split 14 points to Eagles
The Bearcats fought hard against the Eagles last time and that was due to having a few extra players step-up to support Nate and Saint Nik. They’ll need to do that again despite the Eagles not having DJ who’s heading to the 3×3 Commonwealth Games but the Eagles are not short on next man up. Malith Machar has jumped ahead of everyone in the queue with a huge month of 12, 12, 32 and 24 in his past four. He’ll break the Bearcats open and the Eagles will win this one without too much bother…
Key Stat – The Eagles produced a 0-16 run and shot 60 percent in a 20-33 quarter led by current Sixer Daniel Johnson (24 points and 11 rebounds); although DJ isn’t there those numbers are easily covered by Machar and Jack Purchase…
ESPN Prediction: Eagles by 33 points
Southern Tigers vs Eastern Mavericks – (Morphett Vale – The Cage)
Women (6:30pm)
LTTM: Eastern Mavericks 54 (Lefebvre-Okankwu 17, Formby 12) lost to Southern Tigers 84 (De La Cerda 27, Skinner 17, McKendrick 12) – Split 30 points to Tigers
The Tigers could start to get on a bit of a roll after claiming a crucial win against the Sabres last week with three games against the bottom five remaining for the season. The key area for the Tigers is the rebounding ranked 9th in the competition and that needs to lift if they are going to be a finals competitor. Expect Yaeger to run back into form off the back of a contract signing with the Townsville Fire in the WNBL and cause they need it their team take this one.
Key Stat – The Mavs lost touch after a fast start giving up 28-55 across the middle quarters on the back of the Tigers 16 points from turnovers and 6 second chance points; their guards will need to look after the ball if they are to stay competitive through four quarters.
ESPN Prediction: Tigers by 10 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: Eastern Mavericks 89 (Legan 24, Dimakopoulos, McCalop 22, Raneburg 12) defeated Southern Tigers 82 (L Olbrich 22, Daniels 19, Machar 13) – Split 7 points to Mavericks
The most exciting aspect of this game is the young talent for both sides getting an opportunity to step up and make an impact. After speaking to the outgoing Lachy Olbrich last week prior to the Sabres game, he mentioned that Jamie Smith would be likely to see more time at the centre position he’s vacating, and no doubt will get a good run in the next month as the Tigers conclude their season. The Mavs broke their losing streak last time against the Tigers but since then it’s been a disappointing effort from the men dropping games with the squad they have. Though making finals was a long shot, even with their full squad they have come up short; changes are likely once the season concludes. If they were in contention then I’d take the Mavs based on matchup but with the Tigers still a “mathematical” but unlikely chance; at home they’ll win a tight one despite Dimakopoulos likely to fully dominate and go close to mid-30s.
Key Stat – The big three for the home side completed the drought-breaking victory with Ioannis Dimakopoulos dropping 22 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists in his much-anticipated entry to the league with James Legan (24 points and 9 rebounds) and Koop McCalop (22 points and 9 rebounds) last time. They were some big numbers but all three have not fired at once for a number of different reasons…
ESPN Prediction: Tigers by 9 points
Woodville Warriors vs Sturt Sabres – (St Clair – The Castle)
LTTM: Sturt Sabres 84 (Williams 17, N Mathews, Prosser 13) defeated Woodville Warriors 63 (Joynes, Turnour-McCarty, Winter 15) – Split 21 points to Sabres
Women (6:30pm)
The Warriors gave the Sabres a shake last time they met which happened to be the start of Eliza Joynes impact on the league. She since that game has averaged 14.8 points per game and also across the season grabbed an average of 7.8 rebounds per game. Given the Sabres shaky run of 1-3 in the past month; they are vulnerable to an upset to the Warriors here. Sabres however have a tricky run home (Lions, Panthers then Flames) and can’t afford to drop this one.
Key Stat – Mikayla Williams (6 points), Nicola Mathews (2-2 triples) and Lana Mudronja engineered a 15-0 run which took a tight start away from the Warriors and gave the advantage to the homeside last time: I do see something similar happening here to break the game open…
ESPN Prediction: Sabres by 8 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: Sturt Sabres 58 (Spear 17) defeated Woodville Warriors 92 (Meldrum 15, Stepney 14, Jackson, McGee 13, Wurn 12) – Split 34 points to Warriors
Do the Warriors have a chink or was last week’s loss to the Eagles an aberration in an already near perfectly balanced season? The game against the Sabres will tell us a lot as they’ll be desperate to erase the memories of that second half at the Cave. I suspect though it’s the later as the group under Whitmore have been so focused and know this might be their best group they’ve assembled in over a decade and doesn’t want to waste it. The Sabres meanwhile have been up and down with a revolving lineup but always have the capability but sitting precariously in sixth on the table does not bode well for them; Thirteen wins locks in the Warriors for finals; they’ll want to do it tonight and continue their unbeaten streak at home…
Key Stat – The Warriors produced a 22-56 second half forcing the Sabres into an unseen 24 turnovers so far this season; Turnovers per game have been up this season by 0.6 which might not seem much but in big games they have been a glaring number in the Sabres losses. Much of that is the absence of Sam Daly who has missed four key games this season.
ESPN Prediction: Warriors by 22 points
South Adelaide Panthers vs North Adelaide Rockets (Mitchell Park – The Jungle)
LTTM: North Adelaide Rockets 59 (Zbierski 17, Facchini 11) lost to South Adelaide Panthers 89 (Johnson 28, Spencer 17, Osk Sigurdardottir 12) – split 30 points to Panthers
Women (6:30pm)
The Panthers can almost lock away a finals position with a win against the struggling Rockets. They will need to find a way to deal with import Peyton Taylor who is finishing the season in a rush with 21, 14 and 26 in her last three games. Beth Dittmar has also taken advantage of extra court time with 13 and 10 in her last two games. If there is a game to run Holly Forbes into form coming into the finals its this one as she is yet to hit double figures since she arrived. I feel the Panthers will making a conscience effort to get her enough of the ball and play her into touch and the homeside will take this extremely comfortably.
Key Stat – Jade Johnson second half sparkled as she finished with 28 points and 6 assists as they held the Rockets to 2-23 in the third quarter; one potent quarter defensively like that will put this one out of reach…
ESPN Prediction: Panthers by 35 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: North Adelaide Rockets 57 (Winn 20) lost to South Adelaide Panthers 89 (Smith 23, Starling 19, Barton 18) – split 32 points to Panthers
One of the games of the night as both teams each try to prove something. The Panthers want to be a genuine finals contender and the Rockets want to show its way too early to write them off going back-to-back. Starting with the Rockets they are on a three-game winning streak suddenly having beaten Tigers, Sabres and Mavericks with only one key player missing in Brad Rathjen with his arm still in a cast. Both teams can get it going from outside but the key to this one is who controls the paint, the Panthers did that last time through Starling and Smith but as Dylan Marshall mentioned on the NBL1 Central Basketball Show The Hoopsters; the Rockets have regained their paint game with the return of import Akoh.
Marshall has also been a key resurgent for the Rockets stepping up for Rathjen lifting his season scoring average to 15.2 in the past five matches. On the Panthers side they have won four in a row and are now right at the fork-road as to where their season goes. They’ll either out of tonight prove they are genuine darkhorse contender or will give a few teams a run for their money then finish a solid return season for Ninnis. History suggests that the Panthers at home get this one and I think they’ll have just enough to get across the line in a thriller.
Key Stat – Alex Starling sparked his side early with 19 points, 13 rebounds and 5 assists the last time they met. The Rockets three game winning streak started on Jamar Akoh returning to scores of 11, 17 and 21; no surprises it helps having paint presence.
ESPN Prediction: Panthers by 2 points
Sunday 17/07/2022
Central District Lions vs Norwood Flames (Starplex – The Den)
Women (3:00pm)
LTTM: Norwood Flames 85 (Basham 25, Akuen 15, Anderson, Coleman 14) defeated Central District Lions 53 (Washington 18, Samuels 15, Otto 11) – split 32 points to Flames
The Sunday game as I’ve said before is a dangerous one and considering that the Lions are keen to be spoilers; they are a chance in this one. The Flames will not have Ally Wilson till after the 3×3 at the Commonwealth Games but that didn’t make a difference when they played last time as she missed that one too. One of the telling things for the Lions is that Tyla Bennett has been in excellent touch the last few games with an average of 12.2 points and 9.9 rebounds. Akuen, Anderson and Coleman gave them the most bother outside of Basham last time, at home and keen to erase the memories of the slow start in previous games; the Lions will score an upset here
Key Stat – A 32-10 opening quarter set the tone for the Wilson-less Flames last time they met; the Lions have had really slow starts with 37, 20, 16 in first halves in the past month…
ESPN Prediction: Lions by 3 points
Men (4:45pm)
LTTM: Norwood Flames 100 (Huefner 19, Lycett 18, McBride, D Webber 16, Green 14, A Webber 12) defeated Central District Lions 83 (Sapwell 16, Koko 14, Jenkins 13, BJ Johnson, Deer 12) – split 17 points to Flames
The Lions unfortunately can’t make the finals now needing at least 8 wins to sneak in but sitting on three with four games to go will come up short. That doesn’t necessarily mean they don’t want to be the best of the rest and I think that’s what assistant coach Michael Clifford will want in this home fixture. The Flames have problems of their own having slid to a three game losing streak suddenly after flying through the mid-point of the season. With an upcoming run of Mavs, Eagles and Sabres, perhaps the Flames will have the desperation required to take this one out, but the Lions athleticism will cause them problems a majority of the contest…
Key Stat – Cameron “Cannon” Huefner led all scorers from the pine with 19 points at 77 percent last time they met; he’s missing but the return of Ray Harding I expect will fill that contribution; he’s a dangerous matchup for the homeside…
ESPN Prediction: Flames by 6 points
We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in Round 15 between the Woodville Warriors and the Sturt Sabres on Kayo and Kayo Freebies tonight.
Make sure you checkout the previews of the COE games for the Norwood Flames and Sturt Sabres as well both on Kayo Freebies.
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