De-Lycett form: Its no surprise that the Flames Men 5-0 run has seen Matty Lycett running back into "2015 Woollacott" form averaging 18.25 ppg in the last month. Picture by Picture IT Sports Photography
4-Minute Read
Saturday 25/06/2022
Forestville Eagles vs Sturt Sabres – (Wayville – The Nest)
Women (6:15pm)
Last time they met (LTTM): Sturt Sabres 80 (Williams 17, Z Walker-Roberts 14, K Mathews 13) defeated Forestville Eagles 79 (Simons 32) – Split 11 points to Sabres
The Sabres have looked every bit a much better unit cohesively and with just the one loss this season every time you think they are about to drop one; they come out and secure the result. The biggest discrepancy for this side is that they can hurt you in so many ways and that shows with six players in the top 50 scoring averages in the competition (those having played more than half of the games). It makes them hard to contain however the Eagles ooze class with the return of Hines last week helping alleviate the Eagles front court issues. The Eagles got a combined 47 points from the rest of the lineup and that’s been lacking in recent losses. This will be a tight one, but the Sabres are yet to miss a beat really so must back them in…
Key Stat – Last time the Mathews sisters put the Eagles to the Sabre helping engineer a 40-30 second half, they’ve been a thorn in the past and will be again.
ESPN Prediction: Sabres by 7 points
Men (8:00pm)
Last time they met (LTTM): Sturt Sabres 81 (Rigoni 14, Nash 12) lost to Forestville Eagles 105 (Doyle 23, Johnson 19, Purchase 17, Brine 13, Mays 12) – Split 24 points to Eagles
Its two versus four but last time they met it was an ambush from the Eagles. The Sabres were left answerless after quarter time and they can’t afford to let the Eagles get off to a flying start. It all comes down to Devin Haygood and if he starts with the same aggression and flair as Greg Mays did that to him last time while Johnson got real comfortable early in the Eagles offensive sets and couldn’t be stopped. The Sabres will have no doubt done some scouting on this one, but the Eagles are starting to warm-up and will take this one comfortably at home.
Key Stat – The 13-30 opening quarter was off the back of 81 percent from the field from the Eagles and the Sabres restricted to 4 points in the paint; was incredibly telling in the contest.
ESPN Prediction: Eagles by 12 points
North Adelaide Rockets vs Norwood Flames – (The Lights – The Launch Pad)
LTTM: Norwood Flames 76 (Basham 27, Wilson 20, Coleman 20) defeated North Adelaide Rockets 61 (Taylor 19) – Split 15 points to Flames
Women (6:30pm)
Looks like the Rockets are in preparation for 2023 officially with Sammy DeFrancesco finishing her season early so we’ll likely get a look at the next gen talent coming through for the Rockets. It will be a tough bunch of minutes for the likes of Facchini, Zbierski and Ajak to name a few as they come up against the flying fire Flames having won four of their last five. The Flames are pushing for a top two finish as predicted pre-season and have really sharpened up their glass work; a small strength of the Rockets this season. The Flames should be too good in this one but Rocket fans should enjoy watching some of the next gen see some extended minutes…
Key Stat – Third quarter is where they got it done last time the Flames 24-9 through 14 points in the paint, 7 second chance points and 4 points from turnovers.
ESPN Prediction: Flames by 30 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: Norwood Flames 103 (Green, Lycett 21, Barei 19) defeated North Adelaide Rockets 74 (Winn 19, Akoh 15) – Split 29 points to Flames
Before they met last time it was so different to what it is this Saturday night. The Rockets were flying unbeaten 5-0 and the Flames were 2-3; how fortunes have changed. Its like the monstars stole the talent off each other and swapped them around as the Flames are now since that game 5-0 and the Rockets 1-4. The difference is hard to pinpoint exactly for both sides but the Flames have a huge amount of depth that come in with Huefner and Barei while Green and Lycett have hit their best after a slow start. The drop-off for the Rockets is highlighted in Akoh and Rathjen missing leaving a huge hole in the lineup and the drop of Jimma Dau who has had low numbers the past three games. The Rockets need Akoh and Rathjen back, a step up from Dau and a big performance from a Marshall or Parfitt if they are to reverse their form and this result. The Flames have the form so they’ll chalk up their sixth in a row and are now a contender for 2022.
Key Stat – The Flames shot 70 percent in the first half which stunned the Rockets the last time they met; taking away their outside shooting early will have to be a key feature of the Rockets defensive scout.
ESPN Prediction: Flames by 12 points
Woodville Warriors vs Central District Lions (St Francis – The Castle)
LTTM: Central District Lions 65 (Samuels 26, Washington, Bennett 13) defeated Woodville Warriors 61 (Tunour-McCarty 16, Winter 15) – Split 4 points to Lions
Women (6:30pm)
Two teams likely not to feature in the finals but will still put up an incredibly entertaining game if last times bout was anything to go by. The Lions drought breaking win showed they would be no easy beat in 2022 and they have a genuine chance to repeat the dosage. The last time they had a “winnable” game they got done by the Rockets at home. The Warriors got the fast start last time and that’s what they’ll need to do again to gain ascendancy in this contest. The Lions have however been in better form and will just sneak their second win of the season…
Key Stat – The last quarter was pivotal in deciding the win with the Lions 20-3 done through 53 percent from the field compared to donuts; not only good offense but solid defence from the blue, red, and white…
ESPN Prediction: Lions by 4 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: Central District Lions 85 (Manyang 30) lost to Woodville Warriors 110 (Humphries 24, McGee 15) – Split 25 points to Warriors
The Warriors continue to push hard at the top of the table now two games clear of second place which makes you suspect as we see in most sports; they may drop one unexpectedly sooner or later. The form doesn’t see that the case as the Warriors have scored triple figures four times this season and nothing under 80 whilst holding their opponents to under the leagues average winning margin of 92.74 in nine out of ten games. Despite the number of losses the Lions have had this season, last weeks win over West showed some good signs and the potency that was promised this season. Given the comfortable position the Warriors are sitting in, I think the Lions may score an upset here needing to take seventh on the table.
Key Stat – The 12 second chance points in the second half made a huge difference last time they met, Tobias Dowdell, Branden Jenkins and Kalani Sapwell will certainly help the aways sides ability to stop the likes of Jackson and McGee doing that again…
ESPN Prediction: Lions by 6 points
South Adelaide Panthers vs Eastern Mavericks (Mitchell Park – The Jungle)
Women (6:30pm)
LTTM: Eastern Mavericks 79 (Bradley 26, Gouchie-Provencher 25) lost to South Adelaide Panthers 90 (Levicki 25, Stewart 19, Spencer 17) – Split 11 points to Panthers
Both teams didn’t have the week that they wanted but has shown where both these teams are at in season 2022. The Panthers are pretty comfortable at the top end of the ladder where the stark reality for the Mavs despite a solid roster hasn’t translated to wins. Depth looks a real problem for the Mavs now and if they are going to upset the Panthers who likely will have Spencer back and another game into Holly Forbes need all their back-up firing. Form has suggested it’ll be struggle town again and the Panthers should get back on the winners list
Key Stat – Spencer was the difference with 9 points in the final quarter the last time they met; the Mavs will need to stop her to be a chance…
ESPN Prediction: Panthers by 8 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: Eastern Mavericks 94 (Legan 39, Cromarty 19) lost to South Adelaide Panthers 96 (Smith 39, Davies 17) – Split 2 points to Panthers
It was a Sunday shot fest the last time these two met and it was oh so close for the Mavs drought breaking victory by Panthers coach Scott Ninnis’s frank admission they should’ve had. Alas the Panthers managed to hang on thanks to their superstar guard Jeremy Smith who clearly is a barometer for his side. The Panthers will have their hands full with Ioannis however Haygood for the Sabres showed if you are aggressive on the rim early against him and the Mavs, it can send them off kilter. Therefore a big game is needed from Alex Starling who’s point tally has steadily moved from 14 to 19 to 13 across consecutive weeks to assure the Panthers home victory. If he fails to fire and its left to Smith, the Mavs can score the upset victory and reverse the split. I think the Panthers need this one at home though and will find a way to get across the line.
Key Stat – The Mavs with Ioannis average 83 points per game compared to their season average of 77.3; he’s a significant inclusion since the break…
ESPN Prediction: Panthers by 5 points
Southern Tigers vs West Adelaide Bearcats (Morphett Vale – The Cage) – Kayo Game of the Week
Women (6:30pm)
LTTM: West Adelaide Bearcats 80 (Fejo 30, Rintala 13) defeated Southern Tigers 64 (Yaeger 34, Skinner 13) – Split 16 points to Bearcats
The biggest thing missing last time against the Bearcats for the Tigers was points for Mollie McKendrick and import contribution of De La Cerda. That makes a big difference this time around in what is no doubt one of the games of the night. If Yaeger returns for an enormous all-star battle with Fejo that will just be the cream on the cake for the night with matchups all-over the floor. De La Cerda will likely matchup with Langenbrinck, McKendrick and Rintala and Utti to take on Skinner; there’s a smorgasbord of women’s basketball battles across the floor. The Bearcats are going for their seventh win in a row and I think they’ll make it eight but if anyone can upset them now; it’s the Tigers at home at the Cage.
Key Stat – The Bearcats average 8 more rebounds per game than the Tigers including 5 offensive rebounds; if the Tigers are to win they can’t give up those five extra plus possessions
ESPN Prediction: Bearcats by 3 points
Men (8:15pm)
LTTM: West Adelaide Bearcats 66 (Sheppard 17, DeSantis 16, Cadzow 13) lost to Southern Tigers 76 (Martin 15, Daniels 13) – Split 10 points to Tigers
The news hit our feeds in the late week that Corey McLean had stepped down as head coach after 6 seasons including breaking the championship drought for the club in 2017; he will be missed by that club. In the meantime, Paul Robinson steps into the chair and much like his name sake in the finishing up TV show Neighbours, he’ll have to conjure up a scheme to help the team get over the talented Tigers. Despite losses, three of the last four for the Tigers have been late comebacks but the pattern remains the same as they get down in games early and fight their way back. They’ll need a good start and to shutdown DeSantis and Sheppard but perhaps it’s a good opportunity for us to see more of youngsters Sean Stock, Dan Smith and Choi Luk. They’ll take on some other youngsters in Jamie Smith, Curtis Scott, Dane Bobinac and even a little more from Tom “Birdy” Bertram who’s made a dramatic transformation from when I saw and “played” him last. The Tigers will take this one to break their run of losses with Lachy Olbrich the difference.
Key Stat – The Bearcats have been slow starters in 2022 averaging a first quarter of 15.3 points to open games, they’ll need a quick start in this one considering the Tigers are fast finishers…
ESPN Prediction: Tigers by 8 points
We are back to doing recaps for the NBL, Catch all the NBL1 Central action this weekend on the NBL1 website, app and game of the week in Round 11 between the Southern Tigers and West Adelaide Bearcats on Kayo and Kayo Freebies tonight.
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