THE RUN HOME: NBL1 CENTRAL 2021 MEN

There are now just three rounds to play out plus some catch-up games and the race for the Mens finals spots is as tight as you can get with only the Sturt Sabres guaranteed a spot in the final five and the remaining four spots open all the way down to ninth, Tristan “ESPN” Prentice reporting on what needs to be done for the eight contenders to make the final five…

Lual Diing could guide the Central District Lions to an epic frantic finish in the NBL1 Central Mens final five seedings  – Photo By NBL1/CS Photographics

Note: With fixtures being redrafted, the order of games is subject to change

Forestville Eagles (2nd)

Record – 10 wins/5 losses, 111% (15 Games played)

Run Home: Panthers (Home), Bearcats (Away), Tigers (Home)

Splits: Panthers (24 points ahead), Bearcats (3 points ahead), Tigers (16 points ahead)

Prediction: The Eagles will be looking to swiftly secure the second spot on the table by dispatching the Panthers and Bearcats and with mostly favourable splits ahead, it is looking highly likely they will do so finishing with 13 wins.

ESPN Prediction: 2nd    

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Southern Tigers (3rd)

Record – 9 wins/6 losses, 102% (15 Games played)

Run Home: Rockets (Away), Warriors (Home), Eagles (Away)

Splits: Rockets (4 points ahead), Warriors (23 points ahead), Eagles (16 points behind)

Prediction: The fitness of the “Truth” Cameron Coleman will be key and with an extra week off the surprise packet of the 2021 season has roared into contention. It’s a must win against the Rockets in this set as that would potentially set up a 10 plus win finish and with their run to finish the season setup a top three finish and a solid season for the Morphett Vale club. However I think the Rockets will get them and they’ll sneak into fifth based on their split with the Lions.      

ESPN Prediction: 5th

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Norwood Flames (4th)

Record – 8 wins/6 losses, 101% (14 Games played)

Run Home: Sabres (Away), Bearcats (Home), Lions (Home), Rockets (Home)

Splits: Sabres (20 points behind), Bearcats (7 points behind), Lions (10 points ahead), Rockets (18 points behind)

Prediction: With four games left the Flames destiny is mostly in their hands. They play three contenders back-to-back but have the split advantage over all except the Rockets which they would need to make some significant ground up against an NBL star studded side. If they can somehow pinch the Sabres game in an upset then it could be the difference if they go 2-1 or 1-2 through the final three. I do feel however that they may only win one more and finish just outside the top five by the barest of margins.    

ESPN Prediction: 6th

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North Adelaide Rockets (5th)

Record – 8 wins/7 losses, 101% (15 Games played)

Run Home: Tigers (Home), Mavericks (Away), Flames (Away)

Splits: Tigers (4 points behind), Mavericks (4 points ahead), Flames (18 points ahead)

Prediction: If I’m any of the finals contenders, I want the Rockets run right now. The splits are favourable and should be at full strength for the rest of the season. They should get the Tigers at home and the Mavs away setting up a fiery away clash with the Flames in the final rounds. 11 wins would grab them third place and that makes them a dangerous contender for the finals for the remaining teams.  

ESPN Prediction: 3rd

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South Adelaide Panthers (6th)

Record – 7 wins/8 losses, 100% (15 Games played)

Run Home: Eagles (Away), Sabres (Home), Lions (Away)

Splits: Eagles (24 points behind), Sabres (20 points behind), Lions (3 points ahead)

Prediction: Those splits really hurt the Panthers chances of finishing top five and with Alex Starling unlikely to play the rest of 2021; South are looking down the barrel of some tough matches to finish now. Even winning all three (including upsetting the top two) I feel 10 wins won’t be quite enough to edge into the final five with those splits. They’ll need Flames and Rockets to finish on 9 wins somehow to get into the 5th spot and the Mavs to cause some upsets and that seems with the schedule highly unlikely unfortunately for the white and blue.

ESPN Prediction: 8th

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Central Districts Lions (7th)

Record – 7 wins/8 losses, 99% (15 Games played)

Run Home: Mavericks (Home), Flames (Away), Panthers (Home)

Splits: Mavericks (22 points ahead), Flames (10 points behind), Panthers (3 points behind)

Prediction: They have left their run late but they could come home with a flurry, but it will all depend on that game against the Flames where they must win by 11 points plus to be any chance of grabbing a top five position. It would be an incredible comeback from a team locked into the bottom five majority of the season but they have shown they can produce when its needed and would not only be a huge boost for the club but also the far north of Adelaide community. I sense they can win all three, get the margins, lift percentage, and climb into fourth spot in an unpredictable finish.  

ESPN Prediction: 4th

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West Adelaide Bearcats (8th)

Record – 6 wins/8 losses, 102% (14 Games played)

Run Home: Woodville (Away), Flames (Away), Eagles (Home), Sabres (Away)

Splits: Warriors (12 points ahead), Flames (5 points ahead), Eagles (1 point behind), Sabres (5 points behind)

Prediction: The thing that’s going for the Bearcats is that the splits they have are very manageable however even with that unless Earnest Ross produces some massive triple doubles I can’t see them winning enough in this tough run to get over the 9 win threshold and see the teams ahead lose the games they need to progress further into the final five.  

ESPN Prediction: 9th

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Woodville Warriors (9th)

Record – 6 wins/9 losses, 100% (15 Games played)

Run Home: Bearcats (Home), Tigers (Away), Mavericks (Home)

Splits: Warriors (12 points behind), Tigers (23 points behind), Mavericks (36 points ahead)

Prediction: If Julian Jacobs playsthey should win two of the final three and finish a little higher than where they are situated but similar to the Bearcats can’t see even 9 wins being enough to sneak into the final five. In such a tight season the Warriors will rue their chances to win some games when they were at their peak at different times throughout the season.

ESPN Prediction: 7th

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Final Placing Predictions (Considering how tight it is and to keep track)

  • Sturt Sabres 16-2
  • Forestville Eagles 13-5
  • North Adelaide Rockets 11-7
  • Central Districts Lions 10-8 (Lions with split by 14 points)
  • Southern Tigers 10-8 (Lions with split by 14 points)

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  • Norwood Flames 9-9
  • Woodville Warriors 8-10
  • South Adelaide Panthers 7-11
  • West Adelaide Bearcats 6-12
  • Eastern Mavericks 0-18

Written by Tristan Prentice  

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