THE RUN HOME: NBL1 CENTRAL 2021 WOMEN

There are now just three rounds to play out plus some catch-up games and with the Southern Tigers and the Sturt Sabres locking in a finals appearance, there are just three spots left to gain. NBL1 Central Analyst Tristan “ESPN” Prentice looks at post lockdown what teams must do to make the finals and have a shot at the inaugural NBL1 Central Womens title

Former WNBL and current South Adelaide Panther Olivia Thompson will have a big say on where her team finishes in the home run – Photo By NBL1/Emma Hoppo Photography

2-Min Read

Note: With fixtures being redrafted, the order of games is subject to change

South Adelaide Panthers (3rd)

Record – 11 wins/4 losses, 117% (15 Games played)

Run Home: Eagles (Away), Sabres (Home), Lions (Away)

Splits: Eagles (16 points ahead), Sabres (14 points behind), Lions (73 points ahead)

Prediction: The Panthers are in the box seat to finish with at least 12 wins and lock away third spot and if it gets down to a fight with the Eagles on the ladder they would need to drop their game at the Nest by 17 points for it to be a disaster even if they only beat the Lions in the final round. Likely hood is they fancy themselves against the Sturt Sabres already securing their finals berth with their game style and win two of these three games and secure a podium finish.

ESPN Prediction: 3rd   

Forestville Eagles (4th)

Record – 10 wins/5 losses, 115% (15 Games played)

Run Home: Panthers (Home), Bearcats (Away), Tigers (Home)

Splits: Panthers (16 points behind), Bearcats (1 point ahead), Tigers (1 point ahead)

Prediction: The game against the Panthers is key as it could setup a 3-0 finish for the Eagles even with the top of the table Southern in a non-table position shifter game for them. The splits is the most interesting as they have to make up 17 points on the Eagles and to make sure the Bearcats don’t sneak up on them from behind secure at least a win against them. Even if they get the win against the Panthers and grabbed all three wins, I can’t see them getting to 13 wins and knocking off the Panthers ahead of them which means they’ll most likely land on the next rung down the ladder    

ESPN Prediction: 4th

North Adelaide Rockets (5th)

Record – 8 wins/7 losses, 114% (15 Games played)

Run Home: Tigers (Home), Mavericks (Away), Flames (Home)

Splits: Tigers (7 points behind), Mavericks (21 points ahead), Flames (35 points ahead)

Prediction: This is a tough run for the Rockets with the Tigers, in-form Eastern Mavericks and then what looms as a likely early elimination final against the Norwood Flames. The advantage is that the Flames need to win by 36 points to grab the head-to-head so if they can mitigate that, they can sneak into the fifth spot but think with a loss to the Flames in the run home will finish just short of 10 wins and the finals by one spot.

ESPN Prediction: 6th

Norwood Flames (6th)

Record – 8 wins/7 losses, 99% (14 Games played)

Run Home: Sabres (Away), Bearcats (Home), Lions (Home), Rockets (Away)

Splits: Sabres (37 points behind), Bearcats (5 points behind), Lions (54 points ahead) Rockets (35 points behind)

Prediction: The Flames are the most intriguing of the finals contenders they could go anywhere between 4-0 or 0-4 as their record suggests. The struggle is that they have 99 percent on the board and are about 10 percent behind the contenders but could make that up in their games against the Bearcats and the Lions. The advantage is they still have an extra game compared to their opponents so they are much higher than their ladder position suggests. I reckon they’ll grab 10 wins and a thrilling win against the Rockets to seal the fifth spot in the final five likely on the back of some outstanding hoops from Ally Wilson.

ESPN Prediction: 5th

West Adelaide Bearcats (7th)

Record – 6 wins/8 losses, 111% (14 Games played)

Run Home: Warriors (Away), Flames (Away), Eagles (Home), Sabres (Away)

Splits: Warriors (41 points ahead), Flames (5 points ahead), Eagles (1 point behind), Sabres (34 points behind)

Prediction: There is still “a chance” for the Bearcats with still four games left but they will rely on the Eagles, Flames and Rockets losing a host of remaining games and the Flames beating the Rockets in the run home by a small margin. There is also the small matter of them winning all three of their final games with the Sturt Sabres the toughest of the set ahead. With significantly simpler equations for the competing teams, it just seems too much has to go the Bearcats way for them to get in.  

ESPN Prediction: 7th

Written by Tristan Prentice  

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